Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 70 | 83.6¢ | $55 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 153 | 18.4¢ | $32 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 35 | 82.1¢ | $28 | — |
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 20 | 79.0¢ | $16 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 20 | 82.0¢ | $16 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| quine-zyx0x46d7…0eb4 | Yes | 67 | 15.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 10 | 73.0¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 20 | 21.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 9 | 18.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| T222222222220xea7f…b855 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits · Oct 12–18 · 3 events · $1.19M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.