Market · 16 of 19 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 14:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 200 | 99.5¢ | $199 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 6,869 bets |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | No | 12 | 99.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $8 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 5,341 | 0.5¢ | $8 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $8 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 4,927 | 0.3¢ | $7 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 4,047 | 2.7¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 2,236 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 4,042 bets |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 3,900 | 1.1¢ | $6 | — |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 3,400 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 2,322 | 0.4¢ | $3 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,190 | 2.8¢ | $3 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 2,069 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,031 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 7,296 bets |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.74 per $100 · 2,996 bets |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 1,679 | 0.3¢ | $3 | — |
| Roadto1Billion0x60b0…4a62 | Yes | 1,589 | 0.6¢ | $2 | New61 settled bets |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 1,200 | 0.3¢ | $2 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 1,069 | 0.5¢ | $2 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $2 | — |
| gyygy0x3d67…9616 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 700 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 600 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 573 | 2.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,893 bets |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 566 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AspectOfNightmares0x9ed3…bc84 | Yes | 360 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 310 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| S0llarFlare0x271e…b975 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 200 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.03 per $100 · 8,527 bets |
| Yoyobinks0x5e6a…97f2 | Yes | 200 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 177 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 150 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 145 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 120 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 120 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,193 bets |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 101 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xfadb…e3dc | Yes | 100 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 76 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.18 per $100 · 11,552 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 70 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.68 per $100 · 128,355 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 54 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.64 per $100 · 14,872 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.60 per $100 · 54,599 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 40 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.82 per $100 · 18,446 bets |
| navber0xbcfe…2d00 | Yes | 35 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.65 per $100 · 613 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 33 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 30 | 5.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 3,268 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $896K in play
Exactly one of this event's 19 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.