Market · 18 of 26 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 16:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 99.6¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,229 bets |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 2,191 | 1.8¢ | $13 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 2,236 bets |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 12 | 99.3¢ | $12 | — |
| sinziana0xb19e…b8d5 | No | 10 | 99.8¢ | $10 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 1,105 | 0.5¢ | $7 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 1,093 | 3.8¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 7,296 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 100 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
14 more outcomes in this event.
These 26 outcomes add up to 105.7¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $896K in play
Exactly one of this event's 26 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.