Market · 16 of 23 outcomes
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:18 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tripping0x6480…8dc5 | Yes | 105,283 | 0.2¢ | $53 | Proven+$4.35 per $100 · 895 bets |
| pregamee0xa88d…9830 | Yes | 88,467 | 0.1¢ | $44 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 51,000 | 0.1¢ | $26 | Positive+$12.21 per $100 · 3,929 bets |
| bananavomBa7170x7e03…770f | No | 16 | 99.9¢ | $16 | — |
| Ardtysrt010x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.2¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 6,078 bets |
| gopay0xb9d2…fb68 | Yes | 29,373 | 0.1¢ | $15 | — |
| 64MGX75VLQ0xf4d0…4637 | No | 10 | 99.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| 56GHJK878650x9bcb…67b9 | No | 8 | 99.9¢ | $8 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 8,773 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 8,644 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 7,609 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$7.96 per $100 · 18,815 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 7,168 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.60 per $100 · 87,300 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 7,125 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,224 bets |
| welcomyfriend0x68e2…30ac | Yes | 6,240 | 0.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$36.99 per $100 · 136 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 5,666 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.89 per $100 · 53,017+ bets · updating |
| Mr9570xc9d5…d1bb | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xwhaleshark0x2179…bedb | Yes | 4,863 | 0.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$26.70 per $100 · 964 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 3,953 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,396 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 3,587 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | Yes | 2,737 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| laklaan0x0af1…67df | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Wolla0x1898…99ee | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 2,500 | 2.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| rinabigboss0x5d44…bd55 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Gucky-450xe613…540e | Yes | 2,000 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$9.88 per $100 · 2,562 bets |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 1,670 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 1,650 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.63 per $100 · 3,766 bets |
| mygogogo0x00ee…1128 | Yes | 1,500 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4c63…185c | Yes | 1,500 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 1,495 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,443 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| puipui24860x70d9…a684 | Yes | 1,215 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$28.53 per $100 · 4,038 bets |
| rocky420100x84d7…298f | Yes | 1,037 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 9,913 bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| labistiiia0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.36 per $100 · 22,813 bets |
| 0x12356510x1bfb…8bea | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 3,828 bets |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| 10KPnl0x8646…ed78 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 886 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| Binotto0xdd9e…49b3 | Yes | 880 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$19.17 per $100 · 1,659 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | Yes | 843 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 835 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | Yes | 807 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| avengers2357avengers0xf95e…ec50 | Yes | 724 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 705 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.14 per $100 · 30,125+ bets · updating |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 674 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| Mustwiner0xf40f…e473 | Yes | 667 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | 627 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.38 per $100 · 41,591+ bets · updating |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.43 per $100 · 38,405+ bets · updating |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 519 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| makt9b0x7b9a…f9d7 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 496 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | Yes | 450 | 1.8¢ | $0 | — |
| merod0x8373…f0bc | Yes | 437 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.62 per $100 · 17,356 bets |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | Yes | 436 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| cash-machine0x5566…7c29 | Yes | 409 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| mymacbook0x0999…dd96 | Yes | 377 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6cf5…4a23 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6a07…2952 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| lonelyfighter0x97c6…6587 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8db8…c3f0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9e7c…f06f | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd39c…8d35 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| hklcrypt0x7449…c05e | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 0 | 96.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 0xa158…1c1b | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| influenz.eth0xe8dd…ec86 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 29,730+ bets · updating |
| 0x3317…76b4 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| sebelmaestro0x1a96…9797 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 5,892 bets |
| 0x72e0…0b96 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8220…92a5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa996…34b5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2c78…adf3 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| jeanmermier0x1e63…7267 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x227b…76f9 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| 0x01d2…c603 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Laurentdepau0x38ab…ab66 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| stupidestmoney0xe5ce…7f3f | No | 0 | 98.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 88888stupidmoney0x458c…c504 | No | 0 | 96.9¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 4,914 bets |
| PX53000xd6ee…37a2 | No | 0 | 94.7¢ | $0 | — |
| nullpointa0xc617…0d15 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9b4b…591c | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xaced…7eb5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xedd3…9c5a | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Mehedul9883140x00bb…0862 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| cuiakiop0x04f5…157f | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| tali6230x11c3…aab9 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| lrcsDixiG0x1637…a7a9 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| catte4200x216e…9bd3 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Hridoy120499970x2346…3a60 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| RuogffRiski0x2630…2c69 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| GerhardBaum20x5922…06c1 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| gabriel-pmsp0x8d0a…2575 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| bellami19030x967b…26c7 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Pradipt740315710xb00d…2dad | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 0 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 28,074 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 666 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 23 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.