Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | No | 667 | 68.5¢ | $457 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | No | 592 | 67.0¢ | $405 | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 555 | 67.0¢ | $380 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | No | 500 | 70.1¢ | $343 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 1,000 | 31.2¢ | $314 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 374 | 67.6¢ | $256 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| TestingMyGangster0x3a51…fd7f | Yes | 684 | 31.0¢ | $215 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 133 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 500 | 32.0¢ | $157 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 336 | 31.6¢ | $106 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| doudouc0x74aa…2c3f | Yes | 100 | 31.0¢ | $31 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 100 | 32.0¢ | $31 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| tandjlover0xd542…f187 | No | 30 | 69.6¢ | $21 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 67.7¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 67.7¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| Sui0070xce62…cee0 | Yes | 16 | 32.6¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 3 | 70.7¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 6 | 31.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 2 | 70.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| 0x6e1e…98fc | Yes | 4 | 33.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Norso210x17fc…caf4 | No | 2 | 69.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.73 per $100 · 530 bets |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 1 | 70.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 1 | 71.4¢ | $1 | — |
| ZhouCD0xa89c…1410 | No | 0 | 68.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.33 per $100 · 815 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 1 | 32.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 31.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 663 events · $32.2M in play