Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:06 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 1,000 | 97.1¢ | $959 | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 883 | 95.8¢ | $846 | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 601 | 95.8¢ | $576 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 590 | 95.8¢ | $565 | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 459 | 96.4¢ | $440 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 200 | 96.1¢ | $192 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| LlamaEnjoyer0x9b97…5e12 | No | 198 | 96.5¢ | $190 | Break-even+$0.54 per $100 · 5,558 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 3,198 | 3.7¢ | $133 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | No | 100 | 96.0¢ | $96 | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | 500 | 4.4¢ | $21 | — |
| Kastellvalen0xe5c2…6b76 | No | 15 | 96.1¢ | $14 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 5 | 95.8¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xJasonSan0xedc8…3296 | Yes | 105 | 3.9¢ | $4 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 101 | 4.4¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 100 | 3.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| Zakaridoop20xef46…a547 | No | 2 | 96.4¢ | $2 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 2 | 96.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| trader-2db90f8b0x2db9…846c | No | 1 | 96.7¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 4,342 bets |
| 4ud6zz0vvvfp0x65a4…67ac | No | 1 | 97.7¢ | $1 | — |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | Yes | 26 | 4.2¢ | $1 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 20 | 3.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 7 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.85 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 96.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 666 events · $32.3M in play