Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 675 events · $32.3M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 14,735 | 74.8¢ | $11K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | Yes | 9,093 | 75.0¢ | $6.77K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 528 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 3,222 | 88.5¢ | $2.4K | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6 | Yes | 3,000 | 76.0¢ | $2.23K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 238 bets |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 5,667 | 24.1¢ | $1.45K | Proven+$11.17 per $100 · 2,364 bets |
| 0x51a4…02d6 | No | 5,095 | 32.3¢ | $1.3K | Losing−$9.19 per $100 · 264 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | No | 4,296 | 10.0¢ | $1.1K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| JosephTrump0x97af…9bc6 | Yes | 1,400 | 74.8¢ | $1.04K | Positive+$1.25 per $100 · 470 bets |
| cosmicsteaks0xf4f8…5bf1 | Yes | 1,148 | 77.5¢ | $855 | — |
| Anononono0x1966…25c0 | No | 2,000 | 10.0¢ | $510 | Losing−$1.00 per $100 · 607 bets |
| TheFOMCGambler0x1693…5d20 | Yes | 684 | 88.1¢ | $510 | Proven+$16.41 per $100 · 184 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 1,924 | 17.4¢ | $491 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | Yes | 532 | 81.6¢ | $396 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,165 bets |
| plumbis0x77fb…266c | No | 1,300 | 19.0¢ | $331 | Proven+$3.38 per $100 · 136 bets |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | Yes | 435 | 81.1¢ | $324 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| Rebecca-950x5082…049d | No | 1,189 | 25.0¢ | $303 | Positive+$9.18 per $100 · 165 bets |
| rocky420220x08ce…f301 | No | 1,123 | 13.4¢ | $286 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 5,989 bets |
| moneymakingmachine0x420e…e3c9 | Yes | 383 | 77.8¢ | $286 | Losing−$3.29 per $100 · 1,690 bets |
| 0x39fd…7d31 | No | 1,036 | 27.8¢ | $264 | Positive+$2.28 per $100 · 337 bets |
| sogaeyng0x44f1…65c4 | Yes | 329 | 90.8¢ | $245 | — |
| Isengard10x9032…b5c3 | Yes | 300 | 75.0¢ | $224 | — |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | Yes | 300 | 83.0¢ | $223 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 6,639 bets |
| oliman20xc684…2228 | Yes | 283 | 72.5¢ | $211 | Proven+$2.29 per $100 · 8,096 bets |
| lonehighway0x0778…73d1 | Yes | 270 | 80.6¢ | $201 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 327 bets |
| jesuslovesy0u0x1e93…78bc | Yes | 270 | 74.8¢ | $201 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 730 | 26.0¢ | $186 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,391 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 713 | 25.8¢ | $182 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| DanRonSantis0x86c2…41be | No | 710 | 17.5¢ | $181 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 140 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 237 | 88.5¢ | $176 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| 0xd771…489f | Yes | 210 | 83.6¢ | $156 | — |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | Yes | 198 | 74.7¢ | $147 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 561 | 18.3¢ | $143 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,412 bets |
| StaticHarbour0x0a1c…d19f | Yes | 169 | 78.4¢ | $126 | — |
| GUINESS1230x2f26…0d8f | Yes | 159 | 80.1¢ | $118 | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 28,108 bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | Yes | 153 | 76.0¢ | $114 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| 0xd711…749c | Yes | 147 | 76.4¢ | $110 | — |
| LarBotPrime0x32fd…5c8b | Yes | 141 | 87.5¢ | $105 | — |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 400 | 26.8¢ | $102 | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | No | 383 | 25.8¢ | $98 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | Yes | 128 | 81.5¢ | $96 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 45,035 bets |
| 202604050x7511…582e | Yes | 117 | 77.7¢ | $87 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 341 | 24.0¢ | $87 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| CuteEmmy0x6435…f42d | Yes | 100 | 75.0¢ | $75 | New34 settled bets |
| TheImpasse0x2824…a954 | Yes | 72 | 75.8¢ | $54 | Losing−$25.55 per $100 · 1,880 bets |
| bwambo0xacd8…c209 | No | 208 | 23.7¢ | $53 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 64 | 85.0¢ | $48 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| GekkeHenkie230x5c3a…d4f4 | Yes | 64 | 78.7¢ | $48 | New27 settled bets |
| supersmard0xe3f2…e1c1 | No | 176 | 14.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$18.23 per $100 · 164 bets |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | Yes | 60 | 81.0¢ | $45 | Losing−$4.82 per $100 · 8,567 bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | Yes | 54 | 81.6¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x2955…0738 | Yes | 51 | 87.5¢ | $38 | Losing−$9.33 per $100 · 265 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 143 | 23.5¢ | $37 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,311 bets |
| 0x16c7…22cd | No | 142 | 21.4¢ | $36 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 142 | 16.3¢ | $36 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Slowbathroom0x508f…775f | Yes | 44 | 77.7¢ | $33 | Proven+$6.89 per $100 · 300 bets |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | Yes | 44 | 89.0¢ | $33 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 4,676 bets |
| MightyBamboo0xed96…d6ed | Yes | 40 | 76.2¢ | $30 | — |
| yessirskis0x1c62…ca89 | Yes | 39 | 77.7¢ | $29 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 761 bets |
| LucieC.0x983f…fd5e | Yes | 39 | 77.0¢ | $29 | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 707 bets |
| frenchflair30xbe6d…fb55 | Yes | 36 | 81.3¢ | $27 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 100 | 26.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Magician53420x4ae4…f84a | Yes | 30 | 88.4¢ | $22 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 319 bets |
| mr-lowball0x34c5…c508 | Yes | 30 | 70.0¢ | $22 | — |
| capetsa0x4d36…52f7 | Yes | 30 | 67.8¢ | $22 | — |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | Yes | 27 | 75.7¢ | $20 | Losing−$3.77 per $100 · 23,410 bets |
| 0x35df…cf97 | No | 75 | 20.6¢ | $19 | New88 settled bets |
| etghzcer0x7b89…ddae | Yes | 24 | 87.1¢ | $18 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 66 | 11.8¢ | $17 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 60 | 26.0¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 60 | 26.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| mariacryptoss0x4148…c6a6 | Yes | 20 | 86.5¢ | $15 | — |
| oklm50x4282…1814 | Yes | 20 | 77.0¢ | $15 | — |
| StormRazer0xa937…4152 | Yes | 20 | 76.7¢ | $15 | — |
| mathacec0x3d60…6df2 | Yes | 20 | 81.6¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xead9…ab20 | Yes | 19 | 77.7¢ | $14 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 56 | 23.2¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| algo1680x2cfe…e4de | No | 50 | 24.5¢ | $13 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 5,111 bets |
| 0x5d28…f59f | No | 46 | 21.5¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x5f59…e61d | No | 41 | 12.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x6d38…43c8 | No | 40 | 25.8¢ | $10 | — |
| Jpegpeddler0xe50b…8bde | No | 40 | 21.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xf8e4…3b32 | No | 36 | 20.8¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 9,360 bets |
| 0xfa4b…e34d | No | 36 | 27.8¢ | $9 | — |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | No | 31 | 24.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | No | 30 | 12.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| bertross0x5fa5…b7a7 | No | 29 | 14.7¢ | $7 | — |
| spoolz0xb682…68de | No | 27 | 26.8¢ | $7 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 26 | 19.6¢ | $7 | — |
| coldhot0x6854…67d0 | No | 25 | 17.6¢ | $6 | — |
| b-deep0x7981…af64 | No | 24 | 21.7¢ | $6 | — |
| uyn0j3vtvru70x6677…801b | No | 23 | 26.6¢ | $6 | — |
| trader-8feda3800x8fed…a1f9 | No | 19 | 25.8¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc059…ae14 | No | 19 | 27.8¢ | $5 | — |
| frostyhopper0xef4a…5eeb | No | 17 | 12.4¢ | $4 | — |
| Rain-Prob-010x57f5…c1c9 | No | 15 | 13.5¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x78b3…6dda | No | 14 | 7.3¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x12b6…f96c | No | 14 | 24.0¢ | $4 | — |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 13 | 15.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| 0x9297…358b | No | 12 | 12.4¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.