Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 8,180 | 92.3¢ | $7.48K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | Yes | 5,077 | 92.3¢ | $4.65K | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | Yes | 3,000 | 90.0¢ | $2.75K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| mrworldwide0x98d0…f14a | Yes | 2,381 | 91.3¢ | $2.18K | Proven+$8.95 per $100 · 1,841 bets |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | No | 22,533 | 8.0¢ | $1.92K | New6 settled bets |
| Rpzcz0x76f9…f701 | Yes | 1,522 | 92.3¢ | $1.39K | New71 settled bets |
| gopfan20xf2f6…5817 | Yes | 1,210 | 80.0¢ | $1.11K | Proven+$5.39 per $100 · 2,338 bets |
| NotHarrisonHohman0xe72e…282d | Yes | 1,161 | 86.6¢ | $1.06K | New8 settled bets |
| MispricedPaladin0xde88…144c | Yes | 1,039 | 91.3¢ | $950 | — |
| Mr.Dink0x0ba1…cf36 | Yes | 1,000 | 88.0¢ | $915 | Break-even−$0.79 per $100 · 133 bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | Yes | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $915 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| TheFOMCGambler0x1693…5d20 | Yes | 847 | 79.9¢ | $775 | Proven+$16.41 per $100 · 184 bets |
| johnnyA0x11f3…d859 | Yes | 800 | 92.3¢ | $732 | Proven+$2.24 per $100 · 870 bets |
| RobotBeta0xf379…c1ca | Yes | 799 | 85.6¢ | $731 | — |
| carkiller5300xef2f…8b9c | Yes | 716 | 83.8¢ | $655 | New20 settled bets |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | Yes | 679 | 91.3¢ | $621 | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| thisissocool110xecef…75fa | Yes | 410 | 92.3¢ | $375 | — |
| PancraceRoyer0x29d3…b2ed | Yes | 400 | 75.0¢ | $366 | Proven+$11.54 per $100 · 638 bets |
| 0x2ad0…c718 | Yes | 400 | 81.2¢ | $366 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 367 | 90.4¢ | $335 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| dips.0xc785…4ef2 | Yes | 317 | 92.3¢ | $290 | Break-even−$0.30 per $100 · 33,698 bets |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | Yes | 277 | 84.0¢ | $254 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,165 bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | Yes | 272 | 89.0¢ | $249 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| fakefinn0xb237…d8d0 | Yes | 253 | 79.0¢ | $231 | — |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 244 | 82.8¢ | $224 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| 123pocky0x06b6…eba6 | Yes | 226 | 66.0¢ | $207 | Losing−$2.87 per $100 · 228 bets |
| wqeewqeadawfawfwa0xc4db…7e0c | Yes | 215 | 92.3¢ | $197 | — |
| OmegaV20x7804…dbcc | Yes | 200 | 92.3¢ | $183 | — |
| COCOA0xd975…c6d6 | Yes | 200 | 50.0¢ | $183 | — |
| Jpegpeddler0xe50b…8bde | Yes | 200 | 89.0¢ | $183 | — |
| ponydsb0xe8dc…3e53 | Yes | 198 | 92.3¢ | $181 | — |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 170 | 92.3¢ | $156 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| TRADER4200x80cf…614d | No | 1,530 | 9.3¢ | $130 | Proven+$8.29 per $100 · 270 bets |
| RustyRaccoon0x6824…451e | Yes | 120 | 92.3¢ | $110 | — |
| bostezo0x1710…3344 | No | 1,216 | 9.3¢ | $103 | — |
| Magician53420x4ae4…f84a | Yes | 105 | 91.5¢ | $96 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 319 bets |
| priorlab0x4090…fd58 | Yes | 93 | 92.3¢ | $85 | — |
| tonyboy1080x6d1b…1bec | Yes | 78 | 92.3¢ | $71 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 150 bets |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | No | 800 | 19.9¢ | $68 | Proven+$95.13 per $100 · 197 bets |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | Yes | 70 | 91.1¢ | $64 | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| Tony1080x7410…f96f | Yes | 68 | 92.3¢ | $62 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 307 bets |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | Yes | 56 | 74.8¢ | $51 | Proven+$11.02 per $100 · 220 bets |
| Poppyseed0xc442…3122 | No | 588 | 19.0¢ | $50 | — |
| windscreenwipers0xa8f3…e544 | No | 560 | 18.0¢ | $48 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 7,716 bets |
| PeterStuyvesant0xe476…30ee | Yes | 50 | 92.3¢ | $46 | New62 settled bets |
| l4920x7efb…68a1 | Yes | 47 | 88.6¢ | $43 | — |
| thebogusman0xce08…3010 | No | 500 | 10.4¢ | $43 | — |
| Flobzzito0xadb9…9e58 | Yes | 46 | 92.3¢ | $42 | — |
| JasonBrown0xbbc6…0c70 | Yes | 36 | 82.1¢ | $33 | — |
| overfatting0xddea…1ec6 | Yes | 36 | 92.3¢ | $33 | New3 settled bets |
| jnmtm0x0ef5…e92f | No | 363 | 21.2¢ | $31 | — |
| JishWa0xf1fc…0ec1 | Yes | 32 | 86.9¢ | $29 | Losing−$2.20 per $100 · 233 bets |
| Sleepyfan0x6b34…4c88 | No | 325 | 21.1¢ | $28 | — |
| spaceskeleton0x79d2…61ce | Yes | 30 | 83.6¢ | $27 | Losing−$15.24 per $100 · 214 bets |
| 0xd94a…fd21 | Yes | 30 | 80.0¢ | $27 | — |
| FrankGrimes0x4458…1ab8 | Yes | 27 | 92.3¢ | $25 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 289 | 9.0¢ | $25 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,311 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | No | 282 | 9.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,305 bets |
| thisismyusername19910x9ef7…136c | Yes | 24 | 80.0¢ | $22 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 23 | 86.8¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| YungCapital0xdc89…ccea | No | 249 | 20.7¢ | $21 | — |
| 0xec4c…6994 | Yes | 20 | 86.0¢ | $18 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 200 | 26.5¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 190 | 12.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| 0x9dd9…08bd | No | 160 | 19.2¢ | $14 | Losing−$5.13 per $100 · 30,404+ bets · updating |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 140 | 9.1¢ | $12 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 129 | 18.9¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Oklmntrader0x6f67…102c | No | 114 | 26.0¢ | $10 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 109 | 15.4¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| .0.0x6cf8…042f | No | 80 | 16.5¢ | $7 | Proven+$14.61 per $100 · 149 bets |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | No | 67 | 15.9¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| Marclacasse10xd098…3307 | No | 66 | 23.5¢ | $6 | — |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | No | 63 | 7.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 6,373 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | 5 | 80.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| UTILIZADOR20xba6c…618b | No | 50 | 14.0¢ | $4 | — |
| rsabahor0xfb74…ae29 | No | 45 | 14.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 30 | 8.4¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 30 | 11.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 30 | 14.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| ngok9960xe1a9…339e | No | 20 | 26.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Rain-Prob-010x57f5…c1c9 | No | 17 | 12.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 11 | 17.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,637 bets |
| 0xb52e…d0f2 | No | 10 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2557…2adf | No | 9 | 22.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd81e…0fe5 | No | 7 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ZakazDostavlen0x34dc…08e9 | No | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$31.79 per $100 · 868 bets |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x78b3…6dda | No | 5 | 22.7¢ | $0 | — |
| korda770xa328…4977 | No | 4 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | No | 3 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 45,035 bets |
| pentacap0x34c1…8454 | No | 1 | 27.8¢ | $0 | — |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | No | 1 | 15.9¢ | $0 | — |
| TradingBotDF490x2bfb…5c9e | No | 1 | 21.2¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | No | 1 | 11.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x7a59…d798 | No | 1 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JohnJJJ0x78d2…7a2b | No | 0 | 38.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.59 per $100 · 9,894 bets |
| xKingCaesar0x38fc…33e2 | No | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | No | 0 | 20.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 668 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.