Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 666 events · $32.3M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 19 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 64,004 | 32.6¢ | $20.2K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| SlavaUkraini0xe899…0899 | No | 22,920 | 74.4¢ | $15.7K | Proven+$4.28 per $100 · 296 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 38,401 | 32.2¢ | $12.1K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,396 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 9,077 | 70.4¢ | $6.22K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| tunatyler0xf1f9…1245 | No | 8,290 | 63.6¢ | $5.68K | Proven+$6.66 per $100 · 2,308 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | No | 8,203 | 56.3¢ | $5.62K | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| Mi-pucio0x4103…1c17 | No | 7,325 | 63.7¢ | $5.02K | New1 settled bet |
| Scalpoor0x8b36…a393 | No | 7,073 | 64.8¢ | $4.84K | New49 settled bets |
| 0xbe04…3c60 | No | 7,000 | 70.5¢ | $4.79K | Losing−$4.92 per $100 · 527 bets |
| ClauseAI0x8aae…918c | Yes | 14,444 | 30.7¢ | $4.55K | New0 settled bets |
| Zacceerie0xcadd…595c | No | 6,635 | 66.0¢ | $4.54K | — |
| botbot0x226b…cad6 | Yes | 14,423 | 28.1¢ | $4.54K | Proven+$8.32 per $100 · 1,117 bets |
| dzsibenaja0x59a5…afc8 | No | 6,518 | 60.6¢ | $4.46K | Proven+$2.40 per $100 · 217 bets |
| mountaindewd0x944e…8c94 | Yes | 14,000 | 29.3¢ | $4.41K | Proven+$9.46 per $100 · 748 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | No | 6,110 | 64.5¢ | $4.19K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 12,637 | 30.5¢ | $3.98K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,390 bets |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | No | 5,610 | 69.9¢ | $3.84K | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| Snarfsnarfsnarf0x9536…7e50 | Yes | 11,987 | 32.9¢ | $3.78K | New3 settled bets |
| TradeDeficitArchitect0x477f…19aa | No | 5,238 | 73.2¢ | $3.59K | Proven+$6.37 per $100 · 2,801 bets |
| smoovster0xfa77…563b | Yes | 11,183 | 41.5¢ | $3.52K | New50 settled bets |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | No | 5,000 | 58.1¢ | $3.42K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| 0xa2dc…49f9 | Yes | 10,000 | 30.0¢ | $3.15K | New53 settled bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | No | 3,851 | 70.9¢ | $2.64K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 3,800 | 71.9¢ | $2.6K | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| yukonboi0x250e…e864 | No | 3,780 | 70.4¢ | $2.59K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 568 bets |
| kp123450xf0f7…8c0b | Yes | 7,901 | 40.2¢ | $2.49K | New16 settled bets |
| Chungvicular0x41ea…7a3d | No | 3,385 | 57.0¢ | $2.32K | Proven+$6.94 per $100 · 188 bets |
| mrworldwide0x98d0…f14a | No | 3,068 | 70.2¢ | $2.1K | Proven+$8.95 per $100 · 1,841 bets |
| Zzzz870x2117…5c26 | No | 3,041 | 66.6¢ | $2.08K | Losing−$3.46 per $100 · 9,498 bets |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | No | 2,999 | 73.0¢ | $2.05K | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| smoovdawg0x7345…87cf | Yes | 5,923 | 43.2¢ | $1.87K | New60 settled bets |
| alfabetica0x116a…6226 | No | 2,500 | 72.0¢ | $1.71K | New0 settled bets |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | No | 2,430 | 63.8¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| Ambitious-Climate0x1aa5…8712 | No | 2,421 | 65.9¢ | $1.66K | New2 settled bets |
| JosephTrump0x97af…9bc6 | Yes | 5,231 | 30.2¢ | $1.65K | Positive+$1.25 per $100 · 470 bets |
| K1ngN0rth0x04ec…580f | No | 2,323 | 67.1¢ | $1.59K | Proven+$3.30 per $100 · 956 bets |
| whispercatalyst0x460a…d738 | Yes | 5,050 | 30.1¢ | $1.59K | Break-even−$0.54 per $100 · 3,695 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 2,000 | 60.2¢ | $1.37K | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| studmuffin69690xa8af…325e | No | 2,000 | 72.0¢ | $1.37K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 2,247 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,869 | 71.5¢ | $1.28K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| 0xfb24…ac2c | No | 1,786 | 68.3¢ | $1.22K | — |
| 0x43ab…a0ef | No | 1,710 | 58.0¢ | $1.17K | New94 settled bets |
| Andylow50xf96d…214b | Yes | 3,704 | 27.8¢ | $1.17K | New1 settled bet |
| Nicksypoo0xcbb5…5ed9 | No | 1,703 | 71.3¢ | $1.17K | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| Nailcannon0x1be8…f6f0 | Yes | 3,702 | 39.7¢ | $1.17K | New1 settled bet |
| 0xc00d…6cd3 | No | 1,538 | 59.5¢ | $1.05K | New13 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,486 | 73.0¢ | $1.02K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| DonkDaWarrior0xa492…d2fd | Yes | 3,100 | 33.9¢ | $977 | — |
| M88800x44da…e225 | No | 1,383 | 73.2¢ | $947 | Proven+$3.17 per $100 · 159 bets |
| lonehighway0x0778…73d1 | Yes | 3,000 | 34.0¢ | $945 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 327 bets |
| TTdes0x2586…c893 | Yes | 3,000 | 44.5¢ | $945 | Proven+$7.50 per $100 · 1,356 bets |
| ThatOneLatino0x2161…a6bb | Yes | 2,815 | 28.7¢ | $887 | New60 settled bets |
| title10xbe74…a70e | No | 1,180 | 70.2¢ | $808 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 7,460 bets |
| pax0xbfee…7272 | Yes | 2,500 | 27.8¢ | $787 | New32 settled bets |
| Hoch0x72e2…6610 | Yes | 2,381 | 43.0¢ | $750 | Break-even+$0.22 per $100 · 562 bets |
| 0xb799…06a1 | Yes | 2,376 | 43.1¢ | $748 | — |
| ANGGGuess0xab01…2558 | Yes | 2,375 | 42.9¢ | $748 | New10 settled bets |
| resfeber0x814d…b842 | Yes | 2,259 | 30.9¢ | $712 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 2,420 bets |
| Pitchforkk0x0a53…7a6f | No | 1,010 | 70.0¢ | $692 | Proven+$4.40 per $100 · 878 bets |
| Echelonprt0x516d…03e5 | No | 1,000 | 65.9¢ | $685 | Losing−$8.63 per $100 · 872 bets |
| LR10xad28…1601 | No | 1,000 | 62.4¢ | $685 | Positive+$2.84 per $100 · 1,226 bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | No | 1,000 | 70.0¢ | $685 | Positive+$11.47 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 1,000 | 71.0¢ | $685 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| Predictandbreathe0x2707…0afa | Yes | 2,000 | 29.8¢ | $630 | Losing−$3.24 per $100 · 3,219 bets |
| fullamount0x9a06…3800 | Yes | 2,000 | 43.5¢ | $630 | — |
| chartreuseverte0xfd07…ce86 | No | 888 | 59.9¢ | $608 | — |
| TaylorSchifff0xaa68…94a7 | Yes | 1,900 | 38.4¢ | $599 | Break-even−$0.39 per $100 · 1,115 bets |
| RobotAlpha0x5ce3…f779 | No | 825 | 70.4¢ | $565 | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 753 bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 1,771 | 29.0¢ | $558 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| johnnath12220x4b28…15df | No | 800 | 71.8¢ | $548 | Positive+$3.09 per $100 · 1,177 bets |
| GUINESS1230x2f26…0d8f | Yes | 1,700 | 29.4¢ | $536 | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 28,108 bets |
| Krang0xa577…91e3 | Yes | 1,667 | 33.9¢ | $525 | Positive+$9.00 per $100 · 152 bets |
| Hans3230x0f37…1410 | No | 740 | 59.4¢ | $507 | Break-even+$0.60 per $100 · 4,874 bets |
| nnimrodd0x09bb…f8b1 | No | 720 | 64.8¢ | $493 | Losing−$3.50 per $100 · 496 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 1,564 | 30.1¢ | $493 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| willhong0x0484…deb3 | No | 677 | 60.0¢ | $464 | New6 settled bets |
| HowBoutThemCowboys0xe091…9549 | Yes | 1,429 | 28.8¢ | $450 | New30 settled bets |
| 0xf559…f462 | Yes | 1,272 | 35.1¢ | $401 | Losing−$2.55 per $100 · 746 bets |
| jayG80xa962…8978 | Yes | 1,242 | 0.0¢ | $391 | — |
| InnovadorCortez0x598e…14e2 | Yes | 1,225 | 44.7¢ | $386 | New15 settled bets |
| Pbankster0x56cb…9550 | Yes | 1,200 | 42.8¢ | $378 | New89 settled bets |
| FaucetWiki0x8aac…0e7a | Yes | 1,145 | 31.3¢ | $361 | Losing−$4.58 per $100 · 3,494 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 1,139 | 32.3¢ | $359 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| zetbetter0x6512…5291 | Yes | 1,096 | 29.2¢ | $345 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 680 bets |
| Terrence19920xc094…c8d4 | Yes | 1,093 | 32.8¢ | $344 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 500 | 71.0¢ | $343 | Proven+$11.17 per $100 · 2,364 bets |
| cdecercwd0x5d2d…d535 | No | 500 | 70.0¢ | $343 | Positive+$2.25 per $100 · 106 bets |
| Giorgio20x9cb9…7b80 | No | 500 | 72.8¢ | $343 | Proven+$3.61 per $100 · 1,037 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 494 | 64.8¢ | $338 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0x9e24…7e71 | Yes | 1,042 | 31.1¢ | $328 | Proven+$2.42 per $100 · 701 bets |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | Yes | 1,029 | 34.4¢ | $324 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 6,373 bets |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9 | No | 463 | 65.9¢ | $317 | Proven+$4.89 per $100 · 2,385 bets |
| eNakeVets0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | 1,000 | 30.8¢ | $315 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,563 bets |
| sono.pazzo0x98f2…3992 | Yes | 1,000 | 31.0¢ | $315 | — |
| TaxIsTheft0xa7b5…fa78 | Yes | 1,000 | 42.0¢ | $315 | Losing−$1.33 per $100 · 355 bets |
| Snoopyfan0x6291…cc47 | Yes | 780 | 34.9¢ | $246 | Proven+$3.43 per $100 · 2,013 bets |
| benjamin20480x2286…c31f | Yes | 732 | 42.0¢ | $230 | New94 settled bets |
| Sicarius1230xdcb6…0864 | Yes | 719 | 43.9¢ | $226 | — |
| marksman0xb7d5…0789 | Yes | 615 | 36.3¢ | $194 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 8,118 bets |
| Boey0x0539…70f9 | Yes | 550 | 18.0¢ | $173 | Positive+$20.65 per $100 · 454 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.