Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | No | 2,695 | 82.2¢ | $2.36K | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| jaredg0x36c2…2b8c | Yes | 11,441 | 22.5¢ | $1.43K | — |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 1,421 | 83.3¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$11.16 per $100 · 2,363 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 917 | 75.7¢ | $802 | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 900 | 72.0¢ | $788 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0x023a…4fbc | Yes | 5,203 | 33.2¢ | $650 | — |
| 0xc8b9…b836 | No | 727 | 67.0¢ | $636 | Proven+$18.90 per $100 · 507 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 631 | 81.2¢ | $552 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,034 bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | No | 596 | 69.8¢ | $522 | Positive+$11.47 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| 0x9bbd…6e72 | No | 558 | 37.6¢ | $489 | — |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | No | 539 | 64.5¢ | $472 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,165 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 522 | 85.4¢ | $457 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| ForTheWin19840x9cd5…9f12 | Yes | 2,856 | 23.1¢ | $357 | New12 settled bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | No | 303 | 39.9¢ | $265 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| 420210x0d42…f124 | No | 288 | 84.0¢ | $252 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 9,208 bets |
| mamboNB50x1c00…7af4 | No | 263 | 36.7¢ | $230 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 249 | 87.2¢ | $218 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 200 | 77.7¢ | $175 | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| MMH50x551d…4afe | Yes | 1,158 | 14.1¢ | $145 | New15 settled bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 994 | 38.9¢ | $124 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| TouchDownThana0xecfa…3c6f | No | 140 | 68.4¢ | $122 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 132 | 87.5¢ | $116 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | No | 115 | 73.2¢ | $101 | — |
| overfatting0xddea…1ec6 | No | 113 | 84.0¢ | $99 | New3 settled bets |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 110 | 86.0¢ | $97 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 109 | 87.0¢ | $95 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| dips.0xc785…4ef2 | No | 108 | 86.5¢ | $95 | Break-even−$0.53 per $100 · 30,440+ bets · updating |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 108 | 86.5¢ | $95 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 752 | 12.4¢ | $94 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| runechiters0x2213…492c | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $88 | Positive+$2.46 per $100 · 627 bets |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | No | 100 | 86.0¢ | $88 | — |
| ts1410xcd76…77bd | No | 100 | 63.0¢ | $88 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 97 | 80.9¢ | $85 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| warptrading0x6f08…54d3 | No | 86 | 58.0¢ | $75 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 10,198 bets |
| CuteEmmy0x6435…f42d | Yes | 600 | 29.9¢ | $75 | — |
| zzzx20x26a9…f6b7 | Yes | 500 | 12.0¢ | $63 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 935 bets |
| pompey0xbbae…13f8 | Yes | 438 | 23.1¢ | $55 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | No | 60 | 86.0¢ | $53 | — |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 58 | 85.0¢ | $51 | — |
| sharingan-kakashi0x1c70…4c51 | No | 50 | 60.0¢ | $44 | Proven+$5.84 per $100 · 723 bets |
| spaceskeleton0x79d2…61ce | No | 50 | 70.7¢ | $44 | — |
| nicoco890x7ac8…77cd | Yes | 346 | 36.0¢ | $43 | Proven+$9.43 per $100 · 2,475 bets |
| 0x7ee9…4b53 | No | 43 | 58.5¢ | $37 | — |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | Yes | 270 | 24.0¢ | $34 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 6,373 bets |
| flow-trader-at-optiver0x1584…71b6 | No | 37 | 53.0¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 6,776 bets |
| oliman20xc684…2228 | Yes | 232 | 37.5¢ | $29 | Proven+$2.29 per $100 · 8,096 bets |
| Clesta0x92c4…8767 | Yes | 227 | 35.6¢ | $28 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 218 | 19.8¢ | $27 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| 0xabb9…2b63 | No | 31 | 77.7¢ | $27 | — |
| trader-8feda3800x8fed…a1f9 | No | 29 | 65.9¢ | $25 | — |
| nononononono0x1e5a…d56e | Yes | 200 | 23.0¢ | $25 | Proven+$6.50 per $100 · 439 bets |
| FranDeOrellana0x1e71…39ce | Yes | 200 | 25.8¢ | $25 | New75 settled bets |
| Heyo02920x3e9b…a0ec | Yes | 197 | 13.5¢ | $25 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 196 | 16.2¢ | $25 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| 0x9cfb…78f9 | No | 28 | 73.1¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xb561…8900 | Yes | 181 | 37.4¢ | $23 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | No | 25 | 53.5¢ | $22 | — |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | 170 | 36.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 154 | 14.6¢ | $19 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| 0xe004…7849 | Yes | 147 | 45.0¢ | $18 | — |
| ACPOH0x47a5…43d3 | Yes | 133 | 15.5¢ | $17 | — |
| StaticHarbour0x0a1c…d19f | No | 19 | 84.4¢ | $16 | — |
| essjay2k0x83e9…69d7 | Yes | 125 | 16.5¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x04b3…1b7e | No | 15 | 65.9¢ | $13 | — |
| wqeewqeadawfawfwa0xc4db…7e0c | No | 15 | 88.4¢ | $13 | — |
| test.saveliyb.test0x6358…cc23 | Yes | 102 | 57.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Jpegpeddler0xe50b…8bde | Yes | 100 | 63.0¢ | $13 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 13 | 77.1¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x8f55…f203 | No | 13 | 78.1¢ | $11 | — |
| walkwithyourboy0xbc1f…8f78 | No | 13 | 80.6¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x74d6…02a1 | No | 12 | 87.9¢ | $11 | — |
| Alec34100xec23…bfba | Yes | 81 | 31.9¢ | $10 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 76 | 31.7¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| Lexington0xdebb…eedb | Yes | 71 | 13.5¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 8,190 bets |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 88.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Viewbot0xdbe5…72da | No | 10 | 71.2¢ | $9 | — |
| Anon2340xf3ac…f23d | Yes | 66 | 38.0¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 3,578 bets |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | Yes | 62 | 30.8¢ | $8 | — |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | Yes | 60 | 11.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| Golftango0x5e53…922d | Yes | 57 | 35.9¢ | $7 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 1,134 bets |
| Hjklm0xff4b…d019 | Yes | 54 | 17.6¢ | $7 | Positive+$4.15 per $100 · 11,945 bets |
| nryy0xafbc…18c6 | No | 7 | 55.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 48 | 12.0¢ | $6 | — |
| GarlicVillage0x29b8…b564 | Yes | 42 | 47.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf05f…ed10 | Yes | 41 | 17.6¢ | $5 | — |
| ObamAisAhomo0xe913…4b84 | Yes | 40 | 30.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Suet-Lam0xed19…cb5e | Yes | 40 | 38.3¢ | $5 | — |
| uyn0j3vtvru70x6677…801b | No | 6 | 88.3¢ | $5 | — |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | Yes | 34 | 24.2¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 30,038+ bets · updating |
| CyberOptic0x2fee…2e1a | Yes | 31 | 30.8¢ | $4 | — |
| JimboFisher10xc0ce…e3aa | Yes | 30 | 66.0¢ | $4 | — |
| vibekot0xc3e5…015d | Yes | 28 | 36.9¢ | $3 | — |
| mln190x1088…b813 | Yes | 25 | 38.0¢ | $3 | — |
| lonehighway0x0778…73d1 | Yes | 21 | 40.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 327 bets |
| 0xcbeb…4280 | Yes | 20 | 16.5¢ | $3 | — |
| WaymoTrader0x619d…e06b | Yes | 20 | 40.0¢ | $2 | — |
| lyovius0xa61f…fa82 | Yes | 19 | 16.5¢ | $2 | — |
| qcp10x9f44…7470 | Yes | 17 | 37.0¢ | $2 | — |
| szarruk0x677e…5d5a | Yes | 9 | 31.0¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 652 events · $32.2M in play