Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 3,940 | 74.8¢ | $3.05K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e | Yes | 9,000 | 27.9¢ | $2.02K | New74 settled bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 4,234 | 30.0¢ | $953 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| 0x6b25…7a69 | Yes | 3,829 | 26.0¢ | $861 | Proven+$3.93 per $100 · 4,295 bets |
| SitsToPee0x6d57…bfc5 | No | 771 | 73.3¢ | $597 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 2,023 bets |
| rocky420160x8d88…1e28 | No | 327 | 76.0¢ | $254 | Break-even−$0.49 per $100 · 11,002 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 270 | 72.9¢ | $209 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | No | 121 | 69.9¢ | $94 | — |
| 0x2955…0738 | Yes | 396 | 24.7¢ | $89 | — |
| BlueBase-5680x6c43…fb9b | Yes | 355 | 27.8¢ | $80 | Proven+$2.95 per $100 · 2,399 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 329 | 20.4¢ | $74 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 222 | 20.4¢ | $50 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| whispercatalyst0x460a…d738 | Yes | 138 | 20.5¢ | $31 | Break-even−$0.54 per $100 · 3,695 bets |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | No | 25 | 71.8¢ | $19 | Proven+$11.02 per $100 · 220 bets |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5 | Yes | 85 | 31.0¢ | $19 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 20 | 81.0¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x86dd…1af2 | No | 20 | 82.5¢ | $16 | — |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 19 | 79.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 58 | 23.6¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| 0xfa4b…e34d | Yes | 42 | 23.7¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x4dc0…b5b8 | Yes | 40 | 25.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | No | 9 | 80.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 7 | 70.8¢ | $5 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| umbrella-labs0x860c…418d | Yes | 20 | 25.0¢ | $5 | — |
| hawk110x1f14…12bb | Yes | 19 | 28.6¢ | $4 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5 | 76.7¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| SaucePolly10x2869…527d | No | 4 | 75.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa06e…d147 | No | 3 | 72.8¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 3 | 77.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| auramaur0x377d…dddd | Yes | 9 | 27.8¢ | $2 | — |
| JewedGambler0x59cd…716f | Yes | 6 | 46.0¢ | $1 | — |
| dis0rdered0x8eb2…7ab1 | Yes | 5 | 27.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 17RRoo0x26b7…68a2 | No | 1 | 72.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x78b3…6dda | No | 1 | 81.6¢ | $1 | — |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | Yes | 4 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 3 | 24.0¢ | $1 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 1 | 58.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| 48xsds0x0446…cc69 | Yes | 2 | 25.9¢ | $1 | — |
| R20t0xd0c8…e944 | No | 1 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 1 | 19.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 1 | 19.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 50sad0xb143…3c17 | Yes | 1 | 24.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 52adsa0x5146…ac5e | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| enjiee0x243d…4275 | No | 0 | 56.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 28autos0x507a…be1f | Yes | 0 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 80.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | No | 0 | 80.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Patomillones0xa61b…83f5 | Yes | 0 | 26.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 3.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 642 events · $32.1M in play