Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,205 | 42.6¢ | $915 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,620 bets |
| frozenriver0x1437…acfe | No | 640 | 80.0¢ | $486 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 594 | 65.0¢ | $451 | Proven+$6.23 per $100 · 4,942 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 1,186 | 28.6¢ | $285 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| NeonVector0xe090…d0d4 | No | 358 | 77.0¢ | $272 | — |
| peter2397840x7d58…cfcc | No | 346 | 68.5¢ | $263 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 1,700 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play