Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:56 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,205 | 42.6¢ | $921 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,694 bets |
| frozenriver0x1437…acfe | No | 640 | 80.0¢ | $490 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 594 | 65.0¢ | $454 | Proven+$6.27 per $100 · 4,948 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 1,186 | 28.6¢ | $279 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| NeonVector0xe090…d0d4 | No | 358 | 77.0¢ | $274 | — |
| peter2397840x7d58…cfcc | No | 346 | 68.5¢ | $265 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 1,700 bets |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | Yes | 997 | 15.3¢ | $234 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 600 | 22.0¢ | $141 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 1,254 bets |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 150 | 79.0¢ | $115 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 135 | 62.1¢ | $103 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 131 | 75.3¢ | $101 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| pragmat1sm0x8841…c2d3 | Yes | 395 | 21.1¢ | $93 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 101 | 77.4¢ | $77 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 328 | 19.6¢ | $77 | — |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | No | 100 | 75.8¢ | $77 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | No | 100 | 70.0¢ | $77 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 54 | 80.6¢ | $42 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 168 | 42.1¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 138 | 20.9¢ | $32 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 33 | 72.3¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| Miguel2621440x2df5…51ac | No | 33 | 75.8¢ | $25 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 9,181 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 31 | 46.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 20 | 79.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Aragorn-II0xc9ad…79d0 | Yes | 60 | 11.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 16 | 80.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | No | 15 | 13.0¢ | $12 | — |
| winubet0x3a91…3428 | Yes | 40 | 30.0¢ | $9 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 39 | 32.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x0174…95b0 | Yes | 36 | 28.8¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x4dc0…b5b8 | Yes | 36 | 28.8¢ | $8 | New13 settled bets |
| 0xff12…cdc4 | No | 10 | 76.4¢ | $8 | Losing−$5.81 per $100 · 651 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 29 | 33.4¢ | $7 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 28 | 25.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 7 | 76.2¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| tradingBot4340x28ff…c1e7 | No | 6 | 59.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $4 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 5 | 64.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | Yes | 10 | 34.0¢ | $2 | — |
| P0020x64f8…db66 | Yes | 7 | 28.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.71 per $100 · 772 bets |
| SKII0x556f…f4e4 | No | 2 | 75.8¢ | $2 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 2 | 74.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.52 per $100 · 263,521+ bets · updating |
| oilstud0xf538…7c7c | Yes | 6 | 31.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 1 | 66.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| sirjhow010x764a…83d3 | Yes | 4 | 25.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x33c2…7d40 | No | 1 | 82.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 1 | 79.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | Yes | 2 | 36.3¢ | $0 | — |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | Yes | 1 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 80.0¢ | $0 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | No | 0 | 75.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 74.3¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | Yes | 0 | 27.8¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0e3d…52ab | No | 0 | 72.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Beubeu0x4435…786f | No | 0 | 71.1¢ | $0 | — |
| matbobpol0x5006…48ca | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 1,306 bets |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | No | 0 | 59.0¢ | $0 | — |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | 0 | 26.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf0e0…016a | Yes | 0 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x837f…3e41 | Yes | 0 | 26.2¢ | $0 | — |
| TeenagePanda0x126e…c360 | Yes | 0 | 30.0¢ | $0 | — |
| DeepDitch0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | 0 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play