Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:23 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chriszyy30x052f…53fb | No | 13,339 | 96.8¢ | $12.9K | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 297 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 4,500 | 97.3¢ | $4.37K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| pray1ng0xd44d…2ba9 | Yes | 82,210 | 1.5¢ | $2.43K | — |
| 0xc8cd…7405 | Yes | 53,215 | 2.2¢ | $1.57K | — |
| bigdickprick0x8735…46e5 | Yes | 40,545 | 3.1¢ | $1.2K | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,090 | 98.6¢ | $1.06K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,024 | 97.3¢ | $994 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 24,690 | 1.6¢ | $728 | New77 settled bets |
| 0x5d11…018e | Yes | 14,102 | 2.1¢ | $416 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x1914…aa59 | Yes | 13,429 | 2.6¢ | $396 | — |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 10,000 | 2.9¢ | $295 | New6 settled bets |
| jkldskwoej0x5a2b…ae0c | No | 294 | 97.0¢ | $286 | — |
| EchoedHarbor0x6fcf…af56 | No | 286 | 97.1¢ | $277 | — |
| omarlrodriguez0x45e7…0eab | Yes | 8,377 | 1.9¢ | $247 | — |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | No | 252 | 97.0¢ | $245 | Losing−$17.24 per $100 · 7,255 bets |
| YLp5qR7JwTX0x59cd…e939 | No | 250 | 97.1¢ | $243 | — |
| WildFernVoyage0xcf35…d0c0 | No | 242 | 97.1¢ | $235 | — |
| Cashmeowio0x5cf5…7f12 | Yes | 7,000 | 1.8¢ | $206 | — |
| MKSafe0xb416…dd7b | No | 133 | 96.9¢ | $129 | New42 settled bets |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | No | 116 | 97.0¢ | $113 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 30,816+ bets · updating |
| dody0x0235…4d79 | No | 106 | 98.1¢ | $103 | — |
| BettyMeme0xfda1…ae2d | Yes | 3,353 | 3.1¢ | $99 | — |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 96 | 97.1¢ | $93 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 25,840 bets |
| mataaiaproasta0x87e6…882e | Yes | 2,731 | 1.9¢ | $81 | — |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 2,674 | 1.4¢ | $79 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 2,183 | 20.0¢ | $64 | Positive+$2.90 per $100 · 12,432 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 2,167 | 20.0¢ | $64 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | Yes | 2,000 | 1.4¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 720 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,790 | 1.6¢ | $53 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 1,757 | 20.0¢ | $52 | Positive+$2.37 per $100 · 57,731+ bets · updating |
| NOlono0x2a54…db45 | No | 51 | 97.2¢ | $50 | — |
| Alex19880xab33…15e5 | No | 51 | 98.7¢ | $49 | — |
| OK1140xd404…decb | No | 50 | 98.8¢ | $49 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 1,522 | 1.8¢ | $45 | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 1,444 | 13.9¢ | $43 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | Yes | 1,393 | 1.5¢ | $41 | Losing−$2.81 per $100 · 31,789 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,046 | 20.0¢ | $31 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| Pinker0x77ab…8f91 | No | 31 | 97.2¢ | $30 | New42 settled bets |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.8¢ | $30 | — |
| ASportGuy0x22cf…a9de | Yes | 1,000 | 2.9¢ | $30 | — |
| Yasen0x24c5…e032 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.6¢ | $30 | — |
| ratad-ji0xa6a2…7bb3 | Yes | 1,000 | 2.1¢ | $29 | — |
| OK1180xd94e…2138 | No | 30 | 98.6¢ | $29 | — |
| RemusCerneala0x5b7a…d35b | Yes | 808 | 1.3¢ | $24 | — |
| forgetfuldory0xf1e1…6f6f | Yes | 611 | 2.0¢ | $18 | New6 settled bets |
| PrognosticatorOfPraha0xb98b…7e18 | Yes | 600 | 1.6¢ | $18 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 571 | 20.0¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,791 bets |
| trejdingvlad0x6dc2…d8f0 | Yes | 566 | 1.8¢ | $17 | — |
| Gigachain16220x976a…e8ec | Yes | 562 | 1.7¢ | $17 | — |
| bdr20xb54a…c622 | Yes | 538 | 2.2¢ | $16 | — |
| MarpatBush0xa95c…8923 | Yes | 527 | 2.0¢ | $16 | — |
| UncleFill0x1232…6158 | Yes | 511 | 4.1¢ | $15 | Losing−$24.97 per $100 · 444 bets |
| StanGrossman0xaf35…9a45 | Yes | 500 | 1.8¢ | $15 | Positive+$59.71 per $100 · 746 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 481 | 2.9¢ | $14 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| CrescentVoyager0xace7…2509 | No | 14 | 97.1¢ | $14 | — |
| PauloCVSilva0xad42…fe63 | Yes | 465 | 2.3¢ | $14 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 419 | 18.7¢ | $12 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| Timkeeperzz0xf1a3…0c69 | Yes | 412 | 1.8¢ | $12 | — |
| No-risk-no-bisc0xb7c0…e24e | Yes | 400 | 1.5¢ | $12 | — |
| lvscool0xf4d7…8e61 | Yes | 374 | 2.5¢ | $11 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 11 | 98.4¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| MPCap200x94d7…868b | No | 11 | 98.8¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x0502…bd26 | Yes | 343 | 3.1¢ | $10 | — |
| csgogogg0xbe44…e906 | Yes | 342 | 3.1¢ | $10 | — |
| Elon660x0646…3e75 | No | 10 | 98.2¢ | $10 | — |
| OK1160x94b8…6bc5 | No | 10 | 98.8¢ | $10 | — |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 10 | 97.4¢ | $10 | — |
| shubham8740x35d1…8e48 | Yes | 322 | 1.4¢ | $10 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 320 | 1.2¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | No | 8 | 99.0¢ | $8 | — |
| aichuangfu0xfdf5…d359 | Yes | 263 | 2.0¢ | $8 | — |
| KudryavtsevAle0x71f3…4b67 | Yes | 252 | 3.3¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x0bd6…9998 | Yes | 251 | 2.1¢ | $7 | — |
| DamianSyjon0x715e…3e22 | No | 8 | 97.7¢ | $7 | — |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 241 | 11.1¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x04e3…ef1e | Yes | 221 | 2.4¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xcaa0…e062 | No | 6 | 98.6¢ | $6 | — |
| Kidd0x7273…27d3 | No | 5 | 98.3¢ | $5 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 155 | 20.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xe600…a907 | No | 3 | 97.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3a2b…3874 | No | 2 | 98.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x05b2…c70d | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa72c…a78c | No | 1 | 98.9¢ | $1 | — |
| mathewbyaruhanga0x49f0…b403 | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Mitherandir0xd990…4349 | No | 1 | 97.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| AmonMultipleTroops0x2244…b9c2 | No | 1 | 98.4¢ | $1 | — |
| deSora0x6eae…1916 | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| faye.0xe929…b354 | No | 1 | 98.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 1 | 97.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x50e8…3791 | Yes | 6 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| QueenoftheGlow0xe264…2932 | Yes | 6 | 2.9¢ | $0 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 5 | 22.9¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| baztheblade0x0dc3…9607 | Yes | 5 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 97.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| skyrocks0xa3cf…1a67 | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | — |
| graynotebook190xcfff…673d | No | 0 | 98.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.