Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | No | 3,617 | 82.4¢ | $2.84K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| art3698640xbc14…ea95 | Yes | 5,796 | 22.9¢ | $1.25K | — |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 2,800 | 12.5¢ | $602 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 750 | 78.6¢ | $589 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,851 bets |
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | Yes | 2,378 | 21.9¢ | $511 | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 2,264 | 19.1¢ | $487 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| gambler9250x76db…6987 | Yes | 2,106 | 24.0¢ | $453 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 574 | 77.9¢ | $451 | Losing−$1.19 per $100 · 86,515+ bets · updating |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | Yes | 2,090 | 10.5¢ | $449 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| ndb10xfea3…d227 | Yes | 1,723 | 17.0¢ | $370 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 2,390 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 447 | 81.2¢ | $351 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Yes | 1,155 | 11.1¢ | $248 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 1,687 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 290 | 78.0¢ | $228 | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 900 | 13.7¢ | $193 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6 | Yes | 741 | 21.0¢ | $159 | — |
| podairpod0x2ed8…93d4 | Yes | 735 | 28.1¢ | $158 | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 772 bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 200 | 91.0¢ | $157 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | No | 193 | 80.6¢ | $151 | — |
| bdr20xb54a…c622 | Yes | 700 | 13.3¢ | $151 | — |
| drde0xd0a0…2760 | Yes | 592 | 22.9¢ | $127 | — |
| samsmith1230x9a01…6cff | Yes | 564 | 9.3¢ | $121 | — |
| bobo0350x7d78…ffa6 | Yes | 547 | 19.8¢ | $118 | Positive+$4.69 per $100 · 278 bets |
| 0x0b9b…4a25 | Yes | 372 | 21.1¢ | $80 | — |
| 0xc8ce…9574 | Yes | 340 | 25.2¢ | $73 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 299 | 19.8¢ | $64 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 286 | 13.4¢ | $61 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | No | 68 | 84.2¢ | $53 | — |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 65 | 76.0¢ | $51 | — |
| light.t0x6a8b…fd9d | No | 50 | 78.0¢ | $39 | — |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 47 | 85.2¢ | $37 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 47 | 85.9¢ | $37 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,912 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 46 | 78.2¢ | $36 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| StanGrossman0xaf35…9a45 | Yes | 158 | 16.5¢ | $34 | Positive+$59.71 per $100 · 746 bets |
| 0x6fdc…3869 | Yes | 148 | 27.1¢ | $32 | — |
| predictgeek0x21ff…5e2a | Yes | 134 | 25.0¢ | $29 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 126 | 13.5¢ | $27 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 121 | 16.8¢ | $26 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| sportsports0xb185…b984 | Yes | 112 | 38.3¢ | $24 | — |
| yurlppy0xd2c9…bac8 | Yes | 110 | 6.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 3,246 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 109 | 21.1¢ | $23 | Losing−$4.43 per $100 · 82,257+ bets · updating |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | No | 28 | 78.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | 100 | 23.9¢ | $21 | — |
| 0x42fb…dc57 | Yes | 83 | 18.7¢ | $18 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 78 | 11.1¢ | $17 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 100,872 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 20 | 82.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Paws4president0x0cb2…8138 | Yes | 53 | 19.6¢ | $11 | — |
| kirit40xf60f…57a8 | Yes | 50 | 20.8¢ | $11 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 48 | 15.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| HEIHEIHEI-3090x3026…ee71 | No | 13 | 81.8¢ | $10 | — |
| rar1110x1bb7…543b | Yes | 41 | 13.1¢ | $9 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 40 | 24.9¢ | $9 | Losing−$5.82 per $100 · 84,614+ bets · updating |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 74.0¢ | $8 | — |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 74.0¢ | $8 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $8 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 74.0¢ | $8 | — |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 74.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $8 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 10 | 73.0¢ | $8 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 73.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x4426…f098 | No | 10 | 77.9¢ | $7 | — |
| hadarhaddad0x1946…6367 | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x5629…f2a3 | Yes | 31 | 16.9¢ | $7 | New32 settled bets |
| 0xb1c2…d802 | Yes | 27 | 18.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x28b9…8056 | No | 6 | 77.9¢ | $5 | — |
| elliot.0xbca7…87f6 | No | 6 | 83.0¢ | $5 | — |
| fz072zwvj48a0x3dbd…1939 | No | 6 | 86.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc1e2…4e7c | No | 6 | 87.6¢ | $5 | — |
| ChairmanFed0x8369…f584 | Yes | 19 | 24.9¢ | $4 | Losing−$23.92 per $100 · 794 bets |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | Yes | 14 | 19.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 124242580x271b…bff0 | Yes | 13 | 8.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3b05…bc1c | No | 3 | 91.2¢ | $3 | — |
| cacato0xd6df…d71d | Yes | 12 | 49.0¢ | $3 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 9 | 27.6¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| 0x5287…3a16 | No | 2 | 85.0¢ | $2 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 8 | 22.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | No | 2 | 75.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$10.47 per $100 · 49,814+ bets · updating |
| 0x62af…3988 | No | 2 | 87.6¢ | $2 | — |
| IamIsaacNewton0x4a54…e1dd | Yes | 6 | 16.7¢ | $1 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 2 | 74.0¢ | $1 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | Yes | 6 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PITON20260x2142…6b8c | Yes | 5 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x446c…af1d | Yes | 5 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| jackZhou8880xf71e…3833 | Yes | 5 | 23.9¢ | $1 | — |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | Yes | 5 | 23.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0676…2156 | No | 1 | 86.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3653…ef74 | No | 1 | 76.0¢ | $1 | — |
| x5w6n0x2801…9dfe | No | 1 | 79.8¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 70.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.02 per $100 · 58,748+ bets · updating |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 77.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 22,145 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.