Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $491K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | Yes | 12,832 | 63.6¢ | $7.89K | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 8,262 | 32.5¢ | $5.08K | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,993 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 5,465 | 40.5¢ | $2.1K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | 2,948 | 30.1¢ | $1.81K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,841 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 2,697 | 50.0¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$3.61 per $100 · 123 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 2,100 | 65.5¢ | $1.29K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 2,009 | 52.7¢ | $1.24K | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | No | 2,296 | 72.0¢ | $884 | Proven+$5.31 per $100 · 770 bets |
| podairpod0x2ed8…93d4 | Yes | 1,000 | 59.8¢ | $615 | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 772 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,465 | 39.9¢ | $564 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| BetZilla0xc33d…1b02 | No | 983 | 71.0¢ | $378 | Proven+$7.90 per $100 · 142 bets |
| AnonTet0xca29…287f | Yes | 500 | 32.5¢ | $307 | — |
| cutee-00xc300…ad3c | Yes | 331 | 67.8¢ | $204 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 250 | 66.4¢ | $154 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 240 | 64.2¢ | $148 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | Yes | 220 | 48.7¢ | $135 | — |
| Alt-QQ0xb475…0554 | Yes | 189 | 65.0¢ | $116 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 297 | 42.0¢ | $114 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,307 bets |
| Mekanor0x5a8b…a53e | Yes | 135 | 38.2¢ | $83 | — |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | Yes | 130 | 44.7¢ | $80 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 202 | 44.0¢ | $78 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| ykh10x03d6…81c3 | Yes | 124 | 43.1¢ | $76 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 195 | 50.5¢ | $75 | — |
| StanGrossman0xaf35…9a45 | Yes | 106 | 23.0¢ | $65 | Positive+$59.71 per $100 · 746 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 100 | 66.0¢ | $62 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| lplplplplplp0xdf8d…3a6c | Yes | 100 | 65.0¢ | $62 | — |
| LukeZ0xd8d4…494d | Yes | 100 | 42.3¢ | $62 | — |
| PABLOESCOBAR250x6b49…2e46 | No | 148 | 75.0¢ | $57 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 615 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 120 | 37.0¢ | $46 | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 75 | 64.2¢ | $46 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | No | 115 | 57.2¢ | $44 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 65 | 11.1¢ | $40 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 59 | 11.1¢ | $37 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,803 bets |
| perfectnostalgia0x0ffc…8236 | Yes | 52 | 9.4¢ | $32 | Proven+$9.34 per $100 · 911 bets |
| 0xb3ea…f8cb | Yes | 50 | 34.6¢ | $31 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | No | 64 | 42.0¢ | $25 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 40 | 11.1¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| stephen38-8900x8b8e…3f77 | No | 58 | 59.0¢ | $22 | — |
| ndb10xfea3…d227 | No | 55 | 61.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 2,396 bets |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | Yes | 33 | 48.5¢ | $20 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 33 | 65.7¢ | $20 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | No | 48 | 37.0¢ | $19 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | Yes | 28 | 28.2¢ | $17 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 24 | 66.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 36 | 56.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0x08d0…8198 | Yes | 22 | 12.6¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x3b30…100f | No | 34 | 67.1¢ | $13 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 21 | 36.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Fluo0x2b34…b202 | Yes | 20 | 19.0¢ | $12 | — |
| M.elena6780xb5d8…af42 | No | 30 | 75.0¢ | $12 | — |
| prov1230xf143…4ef2 | No | 26 | 75.0¢ | $10 | — |
| limoen0xf608…b9da | Yes | 15 | 68.1¢ | $9 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 14 | 21.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 12 | 24.9¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Paoul19920x3991…3d0f | No | 17 | 75.0¢ | $7 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 16 | 60.9¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 10 | 44.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 30,110 bets |
| BabaVanga-8510xab26…9656 | Yes | 10 | 60.0¢ | $6 | — |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | Yes | 10 | 67.0¢ | $6 | — |
| gregorykatherine0x462f…1e17 | No | 15 | 61.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ethicalcryptoguy0xafb8…4822 | No | 14 | 56.8¢ | $5 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 9 | 15.4¢ | $5 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 8 | 66.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x13e1…0805 | Yes | 7 | 20.0¢ | $4 | — |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 7,880 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 10 | 62.0¢ | $4 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 11,893 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.63 per $100 · 3,025 bets |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $4 | — |
| fi5h0xe450…91b9 | No | 10 | 88.5¢ | $4 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 45.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 9 | 43.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| linghuchudongle0x935c…fb8f | No | 8 | 60.5¢ | $3 | — |
| PITON20260x2142…6b8c | Yes | 5 | 2.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xcd46…b23d | Yes | 5 | 33.0¢ | $3 | — |
| tornad10xcfb8…aa5b | Yes | 4 | 69.4¢ | $3 | — |
| liullll0x64f4…18fc | No | 6 | 35.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x8875…2bad | Yes | 3 | 56.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Sammuelacv0x822e…ff9a | Yes | 3 | 45.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 75422420x1f18…dc6d | No | 5 | 75.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ernestosparalesto0xc911…a7ff | No | 5 | 75.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 3 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 78.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 79.0¢ | $2 | — |
| delmedicopoetayloco0x3d94…a85f | Yes | 2 | 50.2¢ | $1 | New17 settled bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 2 | 38.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| couplehunnidthou0x26f7…9a17 | No | 1 | 80.0¢ | $1 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 1 | 40.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| 0x3653…ef74 | No | 1 | 36.1¢ | $0 | — |
| x5w6n0x2801…9dfe | No | 1 | 89.5¢ | $0 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | No | 1 | 55.0¢ | $0 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | No | 0 | 83.5¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.