Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:49 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | No | 7,908 | 60.2¢ | $7.08K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| milkteaboba0xf4c9…f88c | No | 3,795 | 52.9¢ | $3.4K | New20 settled bets |
| deltasniper0x0826…0b32 | No | 2,000 | 78.5¢ | $1.79K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 494 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 15,593 | 24.8¢ | $1.64K | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,620 bets |
| lihpare0x4fe2…87c5 | No | 1,232 | 76.3¢ | $1.1K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 1,094 bets |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | No | 840 | 65.9¢ | $751 | — |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | No | 724 | 55.9¢ | $648 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| godson020x3103…ea70 | No | 428 | 72.9¢ | $383 | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 424 | 72.8¢ | $379 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| 0xf80e…2af8 | No | 386 | 87.6¢ | $345 | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| Champions260xf91e…4f48 | Yes | 3,277 | 41.1¢ | $344 | Proven+$6.90 per $100 · 902 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 3,000 | 12.5¢ | $315 | Proven+$3.61 per $100 · 123 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 2,772 | 11.1¢ | $291 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,406 bets |
| forgetfuldory0xf1e1…6f6f | Yes | 2,515 | 27.5¢ | $264 | New6 settled bets |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | No | 263 | 90.0¢ | $235 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| omgdildakk0x3b9b…c228 | Yes | 2,229 | 45.3¢ | $234 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 1,970 | 30.0¢ | $207 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 1,907 | 35.8¢ | $200 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | No | 204 | 62.1¢ | $183 | — |
| InsolentBret0x0a87…3e26 | No | 163 | 85.1¢ | $146 | Positive+$1.67 per $100 · 373 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 1,360 | 11.4¢ | $143 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| VortexBet0x107f…bb8c | No | 130 | 88.4¢ | $116 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 7,947 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 113 | 82.0¢ | $101 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| yurlppy0xd2c9…bac8 | No | 110 | 60.5¢ | $98 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 3,246 bets |
| Sandro2311600x2fa0…6857 | No | 100 | 55.2¢ | $90 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 827 | 21.8¢ | $87 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| no1body0xeefe…6c44 | No | 97 | 72.0¢ | $87 | — |
| 0x0456…c88a | No | 95 | 84.3¢ | $85 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 793 | 11.2¢ | $83 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| 0x0cd5…71a4 | Yes | 740 | 25.4¢ | $78 | — |
| 0x3850…0e52 | No | 69 | 74.0¢ | $62 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 574 | 12.1¢ | $60 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| gogo470x468b…09f4 | No | 67 | 75.9¢ | $60 | New14 settled bets |
| 0x786b…9519 | Yes | 500 | 41.4¢ | $53 | New31 settled bets |
| pachecodiane0x459b…37dc | No | 57 | 77.0¢ | $51 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 49 | 81.2¢ | $44 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 370 | 11.1¢ | $39 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,224 bets |
| 0x41c7…1514 | No | 42 | 92.2¢ | $38 | — |
| jeanmicheltoken0xee00…d264 | Yes | 345 | 30.0¢ | $36 | — |
| light.t0x6a8b…fd9d | Yes | 329 | 10.4¢ | $35 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 322 | 29.6¢ | $34 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | Yes | 218 | 28.0¢ | $23 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 199 | 16.2¢ | $21 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 185 | 14.1¢ | $19 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| IUSEBOT0xf9ae…aaa3 | No | 19 | 91.0¢ | $17 | — |
| SC2610010xa2c0…cbe8 | Yes | 146 | 13.1¢ | $15 | — |
| Fluo0x2b34…b202 | No | 15 | 92.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 114 | 8.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| 325fe0xd64c…11fe | No | 13 | 75.9¢ | $12 | — |
| ohara0x3a5f…afbf | No | 11 | 93.3¢ | $10 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 90.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 46.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| Davidcanwin0x8eb2…e6db | No | 10 | 52.2¢ | $9 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 10 | 65.0¢ | $9 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 46.0¢ | $9 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 46.0¢ | $9 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 55.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 65.0¢ | $9 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 10 | 46.0¢ | $9 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 74.8¢ | $9 | — |
| alijbee0x1874…594f | Yes | 57 | 16.7¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 259 bets |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | Yes | 55 | 43.2¢ | $6 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | 50 | 26.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 4,124 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 50 | 8.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| HeeHee110x45aa…7949 | No | 5 | 64.5¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 1,270 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 40 | 33.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 5 | 75.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| yiming60x8c66…904e | No | 5 | 67.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | Yes | 38 | 16.8¢ | $4 | — |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | Yes | 34 | 38.7¢ | $4 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 4 | 54.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 4 | 90.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 32 | 26.1¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 27 | 49.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Ox648bAD7080caA1a9931B2774B20e87ECa75900ba0x648b…00ba | No | 3 | 57.2¢ | $3 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 3 | 91.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,566 bets |
| No-897570x37a1…6691 | Yes | 22 | 15.6¢ | $2 | Proven+$4.13 per $100 · 885 bets |
| manzanazeta0xffae…adec | Yes | 22 | 23.9¢ | $2 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | No | 2 | 64.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 20 | 9.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| fi5h0xe450…91b9 | No | 2 | 92.4¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe68b…a259 | Yes | 17 | 40.2¢ | $2 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 16 | 17.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | Yes | 15 | 54.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| 0x3b05…bc1c | No | 2 | 90.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb128…9916 | Yes | 14 | 30.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x987e…c3bd | Yes | 13 | 48.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Hochul3250x5284…27f5 | No | 1 | 65.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 78.9¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | Yes | 10 | 50.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 10 | 11.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | Yes | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | Yes | 10 | 29.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| 0xc1e2…4e7c | Yes | 10 | 27.0¢ | $1 | — |
| gendan120x4a90…c7c5 | Yes | 10 | 54.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.74 per $100 · 573 bets |
| 0x3653…ef74 | Yes | 6 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.