Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,461 | 99.6¢ | $1.45K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| MKSafe0xb416…dd7b | No | 1,000 | 99.4¢ | $993 | New42 settled bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 883 | 99.3¢ | $877 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 700 | 99.4¢ | $695 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,397 bets |
| kod.cip0x92ae…0376 | Yes | 98,600 | 0.6¢ | $690 | — |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 72,929 | 0.4¢ | $511 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 771 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 400 | 99.6¢ | $397 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 25,840 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 278 | 99.7¢ | $276 | Positive+$2.58 per $100 · 30,054+ bets · updating |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 112 | 99.7¢ | $111 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| jacobo10s0xe15e…d4f8 | No | 110 | 99.7¢ | $110 | — |
| jarzabek110x10d0…d95c | No | 100 | 99.7¢ | $100 | — |
| MONTEGRO40x6c59…8831 | No | 100 | 99.7¢ | $100 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 12,996 | 3.1¢ | $91 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| fghjgdfhd0xb01d…09d8 | No | 88 | 99.1¢ | $87 | — |
| Cashmeowio0x5cf5…7f12 | Yes | 10,992 | 0.8¢ | $77 | — |
| Happydog20260x629c…2739 | Yes | 10,015 | 1.6¢ | $70 | — |
| NOlono0x2a54…db45 | No | 50 | 99.4¢ | $50 | — |
| chooseU0x9b3b…ad0f | No | 45 | 99.5¢ | $45 | — |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 6,341 | 1.7¢ | $44 | — |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | 6,256 | 4.0¢ | $44 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| papitonumer150x140e…bdc8 | No | 40 | 99.7¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x14ec…c745 | Yes | 5,380 | 0.5¢ | $38 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 3,846 | 1.3¢ | $27 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| kingt0x772c…804a | Yes | 3,750 | 0.4¢ | $26 | New64 settled bets |
| feishen0x92bc…c8cd | Yes | 3,246 | 1.9¢ | $23 | — |
| Smellytrader230x6b3a…fcbd | Yes | 3,085 | 1.7¢ | $22 | — |
| 0x5ccf…1188 | Yes | 2,706 | 1.7¢ | $19 | — |
| kkuyy0x22d2…b794 | No | 19 | 99.2¢ | $19 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 2,570 | 20.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$2.81 per $100 · 12,426 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 2,356 | 20.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 2,167 | 20.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
| F1geek0x3844…7285 | Yes | 2,155 | 0.5¢ | $15 | — |
| v1notlost0x48f9…e61d | Yes | 2,084 | 1.5¢ | $15 | Losing−$4.53 per $100 · 288 bets |
| 0x8b46…e83c | Yes | 2,000 | 0.5¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x50e8…3791 | No | 11 | 99.3¢ | $11 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,496 | 20.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 1,444 | 13.9¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| ssumit0xffe1…fe7b | Yes | 1,307 | 0.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x4e46…2819 | Yes | 1,250 | 0.4¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x72be…9613 | Yes | 1,200 | 0.5¢ | $8 | — |
| TheMasterMind0x555c…ee28 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 2,791 bets |
| ratad-ji0xa6a2…7bb3 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.5¢ | $7 | — |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 1,000 | 0.5¢ | $7 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 15,703 bets |
| czh50xd3d2…55f7 | Yes | 995 | 1.1¢ | $7 | — |
| confirmit0x9fc4…2f1c | Yes | 918 | 1.1¢ | $6 | — |
| jonasweb130xf2cf…e2b3 | Yes | 900 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| fff34430x1f15…b872 | Yes | 870 | 0.6¢ | $6 | — |
| why469120x6bb0…6d57 | No | 6 | 99.4¢ | $6 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 753 | 19.9¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| goldgood0x0f44…f4bd | Yes | 741 | 2.8¢ | $5 | — |
| BetongBlomst0xcf7c…1b28 | Yes | 661 | 0.8¢ | $5 | — |
| amit00xd4d5…33d8 | Yes | 648 | 1.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x0218…41ae | Yes | 625 | 0.8¢ | $4 | New92 settled bets |
| PrognosticatorOfPraha0xb98b…7e18 | Yes | 600 | 1.2¢ | $4 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 503 | 0.7¢ | $4 | Positive+$12.12 per $100 · 3,911 bets |
| KronosPredicts0x2e65…caf9 | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| Mozckito30xb7e6…d9e3 | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| LAPULGAA0xc6cc…c48a | No | 3 | 99.5¢ | $3 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 429 | 1.6¢ | $3 | — |
| grass-3440x5768…a9d8 | No | 3 | 99.7¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 412 | 18.9¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| 0x04e3…ef1e | Yes | 400 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| Thedevilwearsprada0x7b7d…22c1 | Yes | 400 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xe600…a907 | No | 3 | 99.6¢ | $3 | — |
| wongwen0x6b08…8684 | Yes | 376 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| the-special0x7a16…4616 | Yes | 336 | 0.9¢ | $2 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 327 | 1.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| kuhhhf0x3aa6…5da2 | No | 2 | 98.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x3a2b…3874 | No | 2 | 98.9¢ | $2 | — |
| arcadion5650x3aa1…3a55 | Yes | 278 | 1.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x9c84…be53 | Yes | 252 | 0.4¢ | $2 | — |
| No-risk-no-bisc0xb7c0…e24e | Yes | 246 | 1.5¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 189 | 20.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xa72c…a78c | No | 1 | 100.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 99.7¢ | $1 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 1 | 98.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| itset55440x06fb…bfdb | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| skyrocks0xa3cf…1a67 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| marksman0xb7d5…0789 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 8,118 bets |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 22,145 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 0 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.