Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| huangsheng0xaacd…c1eb | No | 1,476 | 98.1¢ | $1.46K | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,476 | 98.7¢ | $1.46K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 1,333 | 95.8¢ | $1.32K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 1,198 | 98.3¢ | $1.18K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,174 | 97.6¢ | $1.16K | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| Useerna0x82d9…eaf8 | Yes | 66,381 | 2.3¢ | $797 | New20 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 538 | 98.1¢ | $532 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | No | 400 | 97.6¢ | $395 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 30,000 | 1.0¢ | $360 | New6 settled bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 12,600 | 4.1¢ | $151 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| truthteller0x30e4…5102 | Yes | 11,713 | 1.2¢ | $141 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 3,480 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 10,000 | 1.1¢ | $120 | — |
| CitadelOfCope0x35ef…1dd4 | No | 120 | 98.6¢ | $119 | — |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | 8,710 | 1.3¢ | $105 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| 0x777e…98f4 | No | 105 | 91.7¢ | $104 | — |
| fishcolor0x5ee2…de75 | Yes | 8,485 | 1.2¢ | $102 | — |
| jozeslemsek0xd0bf…9f9f | Yes | 8,453 | 1.1¢ | $101 | — |
| jozekwallet50x0ee6…40ca | No | 101 | 99.0¢ | $100 | — |
| raman99990x23a2…657c | No | 100 | 98.0¢ | $99 | — |
| 0xeb62…1c7a | No | 100 | 90.4¢ | $99 | — |
| 0xf80e…2af8 | No | 99 | 91.9¢ | $98 | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| 0xd701…917d | Yes | 6,515 | 10.9¢ | $78 | — |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 6,480 | 4.0¢ | $78 | Losing−$17.24 per $100 · 7,255 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 73 | 90.7¢ | $72 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| 0x72be…9613 | Yes | 5,423 | 1.2¢ | $65 | — |
| dimitriapprado0x9ef9…2052 | Yes | 5,083 | 2.1¢ | $61 | — |
| Spirit-LT0x1851…ae47 | Yes | 5,020 | 2.8¢ | $60 | — |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | No | 60 | 98.0¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 30,816+ bets · updating |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 60 | 98.8¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 25,840 bets |
| fafafafafafafafsadasdq0xd798…f8bc | Yes | 4,808 | 7.4¢ | $58 | — |
| Buhta0x27b5…9650 | Yes | 4,407 | 4.0¢ | $53 | — |
| Pinker0x77ab…8f91 | No | 51 | 99.0¢ | $50 | New42 settled bets |
| pol0050x9958…c7c6 | No | 49 | 98.6¢ | $48 | — |
| 0xec5b…27eb | Yes | 3,834 | 2.7¢ | $46 | — |
| cryptomikey10xd892…61fc | Yes | 3,817 | 12.3¢ | $46 | — |
| Gigachain16220x976a…e8ec | No | 44 | 88.7¢ | $44 | — |
| Epch0x7c4c…a5f0 | Yes | 3,250 | 3.9¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 2,730 | 3.3¢ | $33 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| 0xb56a…9e83 | Yes | 2,386 | 8.8¢ | $29 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 2,246 | 1.0¢ | $27 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| kingt0x772c…804a | Yes | 2,223 | 3.3¢ | $27 | New64 settled bets |
| Happydog20260x629c…2739 | Yes | 2,107 | 9.9¢ | $25 | — |
| Webb-On-The-Go0x4e87…179b | No | 25 | 99.0¢ | $25 | — |
| munchstein0x5fbe…2030 | Yes | 2,079 | 0.9¢ | $25 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | No | 25 | 98.5¢ | $25 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 25 | 99.0¢ | $25 | Positive+$5.58 per $100 · 86,775 bets |
| Smellytrader230x6b3a…fcbd | Yes | 2,019 | 5.2¢ | $24 | — |
| spidermarnn0x7554…073d | Yes | 2,000 | 8.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xc55f…2d80 | Yes | 2,000 | 1.1¢ | $24 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 1,983 | 6.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| wxmark0xd4bd…7331 | Yes | 1,922 | 5.6¢ | $23 | — |
| feishen0x92bc…c8cd | Yes | 1,707 | 5.5¢ | $20 | — |
| fff34430x1f15…b872 | Yes | 1,700 | 1.6¢ | $20 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 1,626 | 20.0¢ | $20 | Positive+$2.81 per $100 · 12,426 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,609 | 6.1¢ | $19 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| Froxies0x828d…a9ea | Yes | 1,608 | 0.9¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 1,444 | 13.9¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| 0x14ec…c745 | Yes | 1,400 | 1.9¢ | $17 | — |
| paulgruber0xf477…7a3e | Yes | 1,394 | 1.7¢ | $17 | — |
| jonasweb130xf2cf…e2b3 | Yes | 1,369 | 3.4¢ | $16 | — |
| NNNHK0xb623…476d | Yes | 1,345 | 8.5¢ | $16 | — |
| alpheclabs0xb4d2…ce99 | No | 16 | 90.0¢ | $16 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 29,999+ bets · updating |
| HorseWu680xaa73…85ce | Yes | 1,207 | 1.4¢ | $14 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,199 | 2.1¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| yoozzz0x3b08…497e | Yes | 1,100 | 1.9¢ | $13 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 1,083 | 5.0¢ | $13 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| kod.cip0x92ae…0376 | Yes | 1,030 | 1.5¢ | $12 | — |
| ratad-ji0xa6a2…7bb3 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.9¢ | $12 | — |
| LFG240xd586…08e9 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.1¢ | $12 | Losing−$16.15 per $100 · 117 bets |
| Ranni30x463f…f78e | Yes | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x7d2d…ac8a | Yes | 1,000 | 3.4¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xa0da…8288 | Yes | 987 | 1.8¢ | $12 | — |
| confirmit0x9fc4…2f1c | Yes | 969 | 5.4¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 10 | 99.1¢ | $10 | — |
| wert40x46f7…ded2 | No | 10 | 97.1¢ | $10 | — |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | Yes | 766 | 1.2¢ | $9 | — |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | Yes | 679 | 1.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.81 per $100 · 31,789 bets |
| LAPULGAA0xc6cc…c48a | No | 7 | 97.2¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xe600…a907 | No | 6 | 98.5¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x50e8…3791 | No | 6 | 98.8¢ | $6 | — |
| fz072zwvj48a0x3dbd…1939 | No | 6 | 92.2¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x41c7…1514 | No | 4 | 99.2¢ | $4 | — |
| baztheblade0x0dc3…9607 | No | 3 | 98.8¢ | $3 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 3 | 94.8¢ | $3 | — |
| kuhhhf0x3aa6…5da2 | No | 2 | 91.3¢ | $2 | — |
| m3tuna0x4f9e…9aa0 | No | 2 | 90.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x3b05…bc1c | No | 2 | 90.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x0676…2156 | No | 1 | 91.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa72c…a78c | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| ssdx0x2532…9241 | No | 1 | 97.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 99.0¢ | $1 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | No | 1 | 95.0¢ | $1 | — |
| LarBotPrime0x32fd…5c8b | No | 1 | 88.9¢ | $1 | — |
| x5w6n0x2801…9dfe | No | 1 | 90.8¢ | $1 | — |
| QueenoftheGlow0xe264…2932 | No | 1 | 90.9¢ | $1 | — |
| rocky420250x8929…733e | Yes | 60 | 3.5¢ | $1 | — |
| tsnycpm10x5065…f4f7 | No | 0 | 91.7¢ | $0 | — |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.32 per $100 · 7,905 bets |
| P90RushB0x1e10…c724 | Yes | 4 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.