Market · 2 of 23 outcomes
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:58 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 650 events · $32.2M in play
Exactly one of this event's 23 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 14 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 127,843 | 93.9¢ | $123K | Proven+$7.88 per $100 · 526 bets |
| chriszyy30x052f…53fb | No | 60,107 | 94.3¢ | $57.7K | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 297 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | No | 49,417 | 94.3¢ | $47.4K | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | No | 32,311 | 92.5¢ | $31K | New85 settled bets |
| Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6 | No | 30,000 | 95.3¢ | $28.8K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 238 bets |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | No | 25,046 | 95.0¢ | $24K | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | No | 22,109 | 94.4¢ | $21.2K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5 | No | 21,282 | 95.0¢ | $20.4K | New84 settled bets |
| 456ythgbvcadscvb0xeb6f…25f0 | No | 19,820 | 94.8¢ | $19K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 1,517 bets |
| Ferwhere0x152f…a549 | Yes | 440,957 | 7.4¢ | $17.9K | Positive+$68.55 per $100 · 157 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 15,879 | 95.4¢ | $15.2K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| 0x41b4…dad2 | Yes | 350,000 | 6.2¢ | $14.2K | New1 settled bet |
| bosshog0x47ab…95df | No | 12,745 | 93.8¢ | $12.2K | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,839 bets |
| M8880x4344…f90d | No | 12,221 | 93.8¢ | $11.7K | Proven+$3.72 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 12,000 | 94.1¢ | $11.5K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 11,261 | 92.7¢ | $10.8K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 10,249 | 95.2¢ | $9.83K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| Treeman6660x022c…7a01 | No | 7,546 | 94.3¢ | $7.24K | Losing−$3.79 per $100 · 174 bets |
| ChrisZyy-Real0x2481…9b79 | No | 6,667 | 94.6¢ | $6.4K | New59 settled bets |
| archaic0x1f0a…f7aa | No | 6,230 | 95.8¢ | $5.98K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 3,357 bets |
| TradeDeficitArchitect0x477f…19aa | No | 6,220 | 91.3¢ | $5.97K | Proven+$6.37 per $100 · 2,801 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | No | 6,104 | 93.9¢ | $5.86K | Positive+$7.92 per $100 · 18,799 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 6,002 | 94.8¢ | $5.76K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| AudiVideTace0xc2ae…2b6a | No | 6,000 | 93.8¢ | $5.76K | New91 settled bets |
| CasanaView0x43c4…5565 | No | 5,600 | 94.2¢ | $5.37K | New4 settled bets |
| 1hbh0xd87a…2ee0 | No | 5,156 | 95.2¢ | $4.95K | Proven+$5.46 per $100 · 118 bets |
| QbertRules0xf658…dcfe | No | 5,003 | 94.5¢ | $4.8K | Proven+$20.28 per $100 · 475 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 4,888 | 95.2¢ | $4.69K | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 4,458 | 95.9¢ | $4.28K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| AxiosReporter120x02e9…e4c9 | No | 4,250 | 95.9¢ | $4.08K | New30 settled bets |
| StudentMoney0xfb51…742d | No | 3,505 | 95.9¢ | $3.36K | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 1,766 bets |
| Thombg0x09e4…93aa | No | 3,284 | 94.6¢ | $3.15K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 115 bets |
| 0x4bd8…5c53 | No | 3,000 | 93.3¢ | $2.88K | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 437 bets |
| 777670x55e1…0a28 | No | 3,000 | 96.0¢ | $2.88K | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 190 bets |
| SIMO-HAYHA0xb32b…4a7a | No | 2,992 | 93.7¢ | $2.87K | New6 settled bets |
| kittycat670x808a…ef3f | No | 2,716 | 93.5¢ | $2.61K | Proven+$3.33 per $100 · 392 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 2,700 | 96.3¢ | $2.59K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| 0x095d…52cf | No | 2,672 | 91.6¢ | $2.56K | Losing−$2.80 per $100 · 676 bets |
| FedFan0xdd0a…c642 | No | 2,500 | 93.6¢ | $2.4K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 172 bets |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No | 2,322 | 90.8¢ | $2.23K | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| t000000000xd786…59b8 | No | 2,291 | 95.8¢ | $2.2K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 5,156 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 2,156 | 95.4¢ | $2.07K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| 0x5375…aeea | Yes | 50,317 | 12.0¢ | $2.04K | Losing−$5.54 per $100 · 8,517 bets |
| FaucetWiki0x8aac…0e7a | No | 2,078 | 95.8¢ | $1.99K | Losing−$4.58 per $100 · 3,494 bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 2,047 | 93.9¢ | $1.96K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| Rushwave0x5ca9…6ccf | No | 2,000 | 95.9¢ | $1.92K | Proven+$2.97 per $100 · 260 bets |
| JPLP0x0e32…535b | No | 1,900 | 92.6¢ | $1.82K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 1,596 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 1,888 | 94.3¢ | $1.81K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,822 | 93.9¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 1,784 | 95.7¢ | $1.71K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 1,613 | 93.8¢ | $1.55K | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| VvVvV0x4b2d…f0d4 | No | 1,550 | 93.9¢ | $1.49K | Losing−$1.49 per $100 · 308 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 1,537 | 95.5¢ | $1.47K | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| 0x5ec3…f154 | Yes | 33,766 | 7.5¢ | $1.37K | New6 settled bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 19,624 | 4.8¢ | $795 | Losing−$17.29 per $100 · 7,293 bets |
| CDAP10xe033…40a5 | Yes | 13,039 | 5.4¢ | $528 | New40 settled bets |
| MinhPhan980x6048…8513 | Yes | 8,005 | 3.9¢ | $324 | Losing−$31.30 per $100 · 248 bets |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | Yes | 7,936 | 8.1¢ | $321 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 30,038+ bets · updating |
| TheBigBingo0xb1cc…8f4c | Yes | 6,001 | 9.6¢ | $243 | New3 settled bets |
| Liberty000x8300…a295 | Yes | 5,707 | 9.1¢ | $231 | New31 settled bets |
| 123456789000xd982…5ac5 | Yes | 5,128 | 8.1¢ | $208 | New8 settled bets |
| RITB1230x724d…8dea | Yes | 5,116 | 7.2¢ | $207 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 22,997 bets |
| Snarfsnarfsnarf0x9536…7e50 | Yes | 5,000 | 6.1¢ | $202 | New3 settled bets |
| tacosmell0xe057…4ccb | Yes | 4,642 | 5.2¢ | $188 | New2 settled bets |
| NoKingDon0x607b…8e5a | Yes | 4,628 | 5.0¢ | $187 | New6 settled bets |
| Cuadros25x0xd283…bca2 | Yes | 4,493 | 10.0¢ | $182 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xd65f…edb8 | Yes | 3,114 | 7.0¢ | $126 | New0 settled bets |
| p00990x1f51…531e | Yes | 3,000 | 2.7¢ | $122 | Positive+$10.69 per $100 · 180 bets |
| 0xac49…c64b | Yes | 2,233 | 9.2¢ | $90 | New12 settled bets |
| slobber0x4d41…6aca | Yes | 2,123 | 9.8¢ | $86 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 117 bets |
| lakerz0xa9fc…a27f | Yes | 2,123 | 4.7¢ | $86 | New0 settled bets |
| EARTHDWELLER0xc018…018a | Yes | 2,055 | 10.1¢ | $83 | Losing−$12.72 per $100 · 544 bets |
| choohkz230x10fb…c66c | Yes | 2,041 | 6.5¢ | $83 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 1,027 bets |
| yuhyuhyuhy3523520xbd04…fbb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 6.8¢ | $81 | Proven+$13.58 per $100 · 548 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 1,881 | 2.1¢ | $76 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| zmancali0x0aab…6a52 | Yes | 1,829 | 6.5¢ | $74 | New0 settled bets |
| 0x44bb…ba4d | Yes | 1,811 | 7.4¢ | $73 | New0 settled bets |
| HiHoAg0x9f90…da45 | Yes | 1,807 | 5.5¢ | $73 | New0 settled bets |
| GUINESS1230x2f26…0d8f | Yes | 1,729 | 6.4¢ | $70 | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 28,108 bets |
| illumination0xe1b5…8378 | Yes | 1,600 | 4.5¢ | $65 | New68 settled bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 1,468 | 0.8¢ | $59 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 1,459 | 6.8¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| Lsa0x5df5…89f8 | Yes | 1,330 | 6.2¢ | $54 | New6 settled bets |
| HexFragLord0x3dd8…8c69 | Yes | 1,291 | 8.0¢ | $52 | Losing−$32.62 per $100 · 120 bets |
| Gunnyyag80xc743…44d8 | Yes | 1,265 | 8.5¢ | $51 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 116 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,199 | 2.1¢ | $49 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| rutherford0x5239…64a4 | Yes | 1,166 | 8.4¢ | $47 | New90 settled bets |
| 0xa2dc…49f9 | Yes | 1,150 | 6.8¢ | $47 | New53 settled bets |
| 0x78db…34e1 | Yes | 1,081 | 9.3¢ | $44 | New32 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 1,065 | 11.9¢ | $43 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| btobbes0x5654…dc18 | Yes | 1,052 | 9.5¢ | $43 | New16 settled bets |
| YukonCornelius0x1ba9…216a | Yes | 966 | 7.8¢ | $39 | New24 settled bets |
| 0x1ad7…ccc1 | Yes | 963 | 5.1¢ | $39 | New1 settled bet |
| 0x2f61…a33b | Yes | 922 | 5.5¢ | $37 | Proven+$12.73 per $100 · 112 bets |
| 0xe95a…c966 | Yes | 842 | 10.9¢ | $34 | New8 settled bets |
| ShayaEredyon0xcd09…da63 | Yes | 734 | 6.2¢ | $30 | New83 settled bets |
| 0x279e…8f57 | Yes | 633 | 7.9¢ | $26 | Proven+$43.87 per $100 · 178 bets |
| 8484045b89a2260x6a80…baba | Yes | 625 | 5.0¢ | $25 | New8 settled bets |
| frenchflair50x2ce9…5fc6 | Yes | 594 | 5.2¢ | $24 | New46 settled bets |
| nothingno0x92fc…1d78 | Yes | 591 | 8.8¢ | $24 | Losing−$87.84 per $100 · 213 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.