October 31

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
3. §3Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
4. §4The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.
5. §5If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
6. §6For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
7. §7If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.