Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 23:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 11 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 13,169 | 89.5¢ | $12.8K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| 0xef97…ab2c | No | 2,333 | 97.3¢ | $2.27K | — |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 2,317 | 92.0¢ | $2.26K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043 | No | 971 | 87.5¢ | $945 | — |
| DumbOracle0xa9ec…57d5 | No | 800 | 95.3¢ | $779 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 720 | 91.0¢ | $701 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 720 | 91.0¢ | $701 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 600 | 82.5¢ | $584 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| AuthenticDemigod0x7487…fc0c | No | 500 | 90.7¢ | $487 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 346 bets |
| GlockShoot0x0a00…60aa | No | 447 | 89.5¢ | $436 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 428 | 89.0¢ | $417 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,307 bets |
| TheRealWarMonger0xe472…e7eb | No | 400 | 96.6¢ | $390 | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 699 bets |
| shred77770x43cc…9211 | No | 300 | 90.0¢ | $292 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 237 bets |
| nicolasGurr0x848d…35e6 | Yes | 10,166 | 11.5¢ | $264 | — |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov0x6d8c…b79a | No | 224 | 75.2¢ | $218 | Proven+$14.14 per $100 · 210 bets |
| KrdRL0x63c1…70d7 | No | 222 | 90.0¢ | $216 | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 108 bets |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | Yes | 7,890 | 18.7¢ | $205 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 6,854 bets |
| 0xe718…1e2b | No | 205 | 97.4¢ | $200 | — |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 200 | 77.5¢ | $195 | — |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | No | 165 | 97.8¢ | $160 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| D3N1S0xa2d1…62c2 | No | 150 | 86.7¢ | $146 | — |
| 0x0456…c88a | No | 141 | 97.6¢ | $138 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| eratoxtenex0x0b65…013e | No | 126 | 90.0¢ | $123 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 845 bets |
| vakulchik0x741d…e35c | No | 102 | 97.9¢ | $99 | — |
| ProxyOne0x5bb6…9d57 | No | 101 | 93.0¢ | $98 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 96 | 97.4¢ | $94 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| powerfulshrimp0xa92a…a4d8 | No | 91 | 97.5¢ | $88 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 145 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 70 | 93.5¢ | $68 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| Fermatter0x0d09…dd55 | No | 69 | 94.5¢ | $68 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 2,822 bets |
| bring.zion0xf63b…3838 | No | 60 | 93.0¢ | $58 | — |
| Suspendedgod0x5d90…c304 | No | 56 | 95.8¢ | $55 | — |
| mmdolei20x6fa0…3609 | No | 51 | 97.7¢ | $50 | — |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 50 | 97.1¢ | $49 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 790 bets |
| 0x1ac6…b2ed | Yes | 1,172 | 2.6¢ | $30 | — |
| negator5120x1df2…cdf4 | No | 30 | 80.0¢ | $29 | — |
| MrBlackistone0x04af…9a07 | Yes | 1,076 | 3.1¢ | $28 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 23 | 97.5¢ | $22 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,445 bets |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | No | 20 | 97.8¢ | $20 | — |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | No | 18 | 88.5¢ | $18 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 729 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 18 | 86.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| AnaFav0x41cb…a5df | No | 16 | 80.4¢ | $16 | Proven+$7.34 per $100 · 3,469 bets |
| 0xf825…2e2b | Yes | 604 | 2.6¢ | $16 | — |
| vmychenik0xeb77…e188 | No | 16 | 96.3¢ | $15 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 15 | 84.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| Kastellvalen0xe5c2…6b76 | No | 15 | 97.7¢ | $15 | — |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 457 | 3.0¢ | $12 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| Brauder0xc2f0…8f93 | Yes | 442 | 3.4¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x3762…3fb5 | No | 11 | 94.0¢ | $10 | — |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 10 | 89.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| distance04690x6a9c…cc3d | No | 10 | 97.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Insight3140xb57d…5bc1 | No | 10 | 90.0¢ | $10 | — |
| tartartar0x0bec…c6d9 | No | 10 | 97.2¢ | $10 | — |
| MusakaKing0x7727…15a4 | No | 8 | 44.0¢ | $8 | — |
| xNightWanderer0x2d0a…a3b9 | Yes | 310 | 13.2¢ | $8 | — |
| Torin810x9290…3452 | Yes | 300 | 17.3¢ | $8 | — |
| QuietEdgeX0xf1fd…e00d | No | 8 | 94.5¢ | $8 | — |
| smauggg0x8122…7bb4 | Yes | 294 | 17.0¢ | $8 | — |
| dntmfc0x54b6…b9e1 | Yes | 294 | 3.7¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x62e3…9696 | Yes | 289 | 4.5¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 1,917 bets |
| patosche0x86b3…5bfa | Yes | 248 | 4.0¢ | $6 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 246 | 6.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| Touge0x1c44…6c6b | Yes | 240 | 4.5¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 298 bets |
| elliot.0xbca7…87f6 | No | 6 | 88.0¢ | $6 | — |
| sergiok140x4cc7…87bf | No | 6 | 89.0¢ | $5 | — |
| wl870x6a22…ae4b | No | 5 | 93.0¢ | $5 | — |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 200 | 25.0¢ | $5 | — |
| misaki0x912d…5f1a | Yes | 176 | 2.1¢ | $5 | — |
| GodfreyOfBuillon0x862e…75bf | Yes | 167 | 12.0¢ | $4 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 150 | 21.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| alex-2630xb571…6053 | Yes | 110 | 8.9¢ | $3 | — |
| sinnet50x1957…11d2 | Yes | 100 | 2.6¢ | $3 | New36 settled bets |
| baklavam0x4749…0ed3 | Yes | 100 | 4.3¢ | $3 | — |
| Phenium0xe9f2…ddd0 | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 623 bets |
| 0xf45f…dbfd | Yes | 100 | 10.7¢ | $3 | — |
| Dxqdxq0x9f90…5b7e | Yes | 85 | 8.0¢ | $2 | — |
| nizi150x4177…57df | Yes | 83 | 12.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$48.00 per $100 · 191 bets |
| Tommyone0x633a…279c | Yes | 83 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ObamAisAhomo0xe913…4b84 | Yes | 70 | 11.6¢ | $2 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 65 | 22.6¢ | $2 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| NotSoTalkingMuppet0xaa9b…12fe | Yes | 64 | 15.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Volodymyr-Zelensky0x306f…aa99 | Yes | 60 | 14.0¢ | $2 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 55 | 16.2¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 40 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 33 | 27.2¢ | $1 | — |
| jimmyTrade0x4a92…85e5 | Yes | 29 | 3.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.64 per $100 · 675 bets |
| Alex87910x81af…e59b | Yes | 26 | 3.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x7d56…f8d4 | Yes | 25 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Moksha980x6e49…4710 | Yes | 23 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xf670…e778 | Yes | 22 | 22.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x408e…eaa5 | Yes | 18 | 54.9¢ | $0 | — |
| NoPasaran50x29a1…5645 | Yes | 15 | 28.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 733 bets |
| Anonnnn24090x9b22…3a92 | Yes | 12 | 25.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3925…53eb | Yes | 8 | 12.2¢ | $0 | — |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | 6 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Kraken69110x1012…b4ad | Yes | 5 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 1 | 5.2¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420070x6b17…03b2 | Yes | 1 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Kostyantynivka Captured by Russia · 2 events · $460K in play