Market
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 4,835 | 68.3¢ | $3.31K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| lionkinglionkinglionking0xa0b6…3961 | No | 3,486 | 28.9¢ | $2.39K | — |
| flexibleagedbeef0xbbc5…b08b | No | 2,222 | 67.2¢ | $1.52K | — |
| Goat85240xf861…681f | No | 1,291 | 35.3¢ | $884 | — |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | Yes | 2,781 | 63.3¢ | $876 | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| 0xd056…f1be | No | 1,183 | 63.6¢ | $811 | Positive+$2.36 per $100 · 1,760 bets |
| PeterEriksson0xc7e7…40b4 | Yes | 2,260 | 40.0¢ | $712 | — |
| AnonDaveDave0x98bc…a1da | No | 1,036 | 33.8¢ | $710 | — |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 1,000 | 30.0¢ | $685 | — |
| Rybkaoi0xc5a3…883a | Yes | 1,982 | 34.8¢ | $624 | — |
| filthymudeok0xbbe3…5b92 | No | 700 | 29.5¢ | $479 | Losing−$11.70 per $100 · 325 bets |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 616 | 29.3¢ | $422 | — |
| Torin810x9290…3452 | Yes | 1,290 | 64.6¢ | $406 | — |
| dreadnothingatall0xc270…3503 | Yes | 1,269 | 36.0¢ | $400 | — |
| Topme0x88db…4228 | No | 440 | 45.4¢ | $302 | — |
| mk-h0xa6a6…8bc8 | No | 386 | 31.6¢ | $264 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 828 | 48.1¢ | $261 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 336 | 27.0¢ | $230 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| islandsta0x9d6c…3407 | No | 332 | 45.2¢ | $227 | — |
| firewalker9230xef54…c997 | Yes | 700 | 67.6¢ | $220 | — |
| Poivre0x714f…66d5 | No | 300 | 36.7¢ | $206 | Positive+$4.99 per $100 · 1,435 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 640 | 33.6¢ | $202 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,293 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 601 | 35.9¢ | $189 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 535 | 69.9¢ | $169 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 531 | 64.5¢ | $167 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,902 bets |
| Donkolo0x43f0…1b3d | Yes | 500 | 79.0¢ | $157 | — |
| FoolingAround0x0f4f…7039 | Yes | 470 | 64.4¢ | $148 | — |
| cidesui770x8fbb…b4c6 | No | 213 | 35.2¢ | $146 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 195 | 27.6¢ | $134 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xb7c1…675e | No | 188 | 38.0¢ | $129 | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 160 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 400 | 77.0¢ | $126 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | Yes | 368 | 53.8¢ | $116 | — |
| SubashChandraBose0xf01a…f231 | Yes | 364 | 44.7¢ | $115 | — |
| Hieroglyphs0x0e61…60a0 | No | 166 | 45.2¢ | $114 | — |
| fakwar0xb94a…a623 | Yes | 357 | 28.0¢ | $112 | — |
| lsd250xceab…deef | Yes | 350 | 73.9¢ | $110 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 341 | 35.0¢ | $107 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| MiaoAlpha0x5231…ca59 | No | 156 | 63.5¢ | $107 | New36 settled bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 150 | 52.0¢ | $103 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 300 | 61.4¢ | $95 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| rocky420040xcf37…993f | Yes | 300 | 61.0¢ | $95 | — |
| 0x777jmex0x7776…1e8c | Yes | 293 | 49.8¢ | $92 | — |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 282 | 71.7¢ | $89 | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| John.Gault0x8fa0…72d6 | No | 100 | 29.0¢ | $69 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 100 | 49.0¢ | $68 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| helpinghans0x6944…7275 | Yes | 200 | 67.0¢ | $63 | — |
| Sikkifweflles0x995c…8770 | No | 88 | 60.2¢ | $61 | — |
| NiceDuckBro0xb26c…0eb0 | Yes | 182 | 62.0¢ | $57 | — |
| 0xa0b9…6048 | No | 80 | 37.0¢ | $55 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 79 | 55.1¢ | $54 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| chilllguy0x7801…7e6c | Yes | 169 | 60.0¢ | $53 | — |
| lisa670x5768…08fd | Yes | 163 | 61.0¢ | $51 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 158 bets |
| 0x2712…eb71 | No | 74 | 40.3¢ | $51 | — |
| 0x8e36…ddfa | No | 74 | 45.0¢ | $50 | — |
| Machine250xd1b2…c5d3 | Yes | 160 | 60.0¢ | $50 | — |
| 0xce0c…2945 | No | 73 | 55.0¢ | $50 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 62 | 40.6¢ | $42 | — |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | No | 60 | 42.8¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 3,461 bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 59 | 33.0¢ | $40 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| zslon0x2d7d…8a52 | Yes | 128 | 65.5¢ | $40 | — |
| lfchange0xc1a2…02a5 | Yes | 127 | 73.7¢ | $40 | — |
| Alegrandebig0x3773…f0dd | No | 52 | 61.6¢ | $36 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 7,087 bets |
| 0xf45f…dbfd | Yes | 110 | 46.7¢ | $35 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 50 | 47.0¢ | $34 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| DumbOracle0xa9ec…57d5 | No | 50 | 30.0¢ | $34 | — |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 50 | 37.2¢ | $34 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| mayhemvpp0xb979…6e86 | Yes | 106 | 69.4¢ | $33 | — |
| VladimirLootin0x5d21…af5a | Yes | 104 | 55.0¢ | $33 | — |
| mr.Putin0x4367…1933 | Yes | 100 | 70.0¢ | $32 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 100 | 36.0¢ | $32 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| maksuss0xa89d…52e1 | Yes | 90 | 31.0¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.48 per $100 · 308 bets |
| jollyblue0x74a4…62dd | Yes | 90 | 72.9¢ | $28 | — |
| 0xd113…09c6 | Yes | 84 | 37.1¢ | $26 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 76 | 34.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 75 | 61.3¢ | $24 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 34 | 29.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| zerowar0xd822…8c9b | Yes | 66 | 61.0¢ | $21 | — |
| B1zz0xcd64…3081 | No | 28 | 28.5¢ | $19 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 60 | 75.5¢ | $19 | — |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | No | 27 | 73.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 729 bets |
| Anonnnn24090x9b22…3a92 | Yes | 59 | 62.3¢ | $19 | — |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 55 | 30.1¢ | $17 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| 0xb15d…558a | No | 22 | 62.1¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xe7a1…965f | No | 22 | 62.7¢ | $15 | — |
| NoPasaran50x29a1…5645 | Yes | 42 | 62.9¢ | $13 | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 733 bets |
| 0x8ace…9f76 | Yes | 40 | 32.2¢ | $13 | — |
| mcphearson990xedc4…be57 | No | 16 | 64.0¢ | $11 | — |
| tengi0xd13e…9742 | Yes | 31 | 81.0¢ | $10 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 30 | 37.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| ObamAisAhomo0xe913…4b84 | Yes | 30 | 70.0¢ | $9 | — |
| AndriiShyrokopoias0x34cc…e646 | No | 14 | 37.0¢ | $9 | — |
| TooYoungToWin0x28ab…2048 | No | 11 | 35.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xf453…a674 | Yes | 25 | 66.6¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 10 | 72.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 1,656 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 66.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| 0x4ca9…7aa1 | No | 9 | 30.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$44.87 per $100 · 160 bets |
| high-beta-trading-only0x703d…80f6 | No | 8 | 61.0¢ | $6 | — |
| gigi.9110x33d3…b5ab | No | 6 | 33.3¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xfe6b…ca57 | No | 5 | 56.0¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Kostyantynivka Captured by Russia · 2 events · $460K in play