Market · 4 of 23 outcomes
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 168 | 90.3¢ | $168 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| caviaro0xb36b…7804 | Yes | 280,078 | 0.1¢ | $140 | Proven+$4.76 per $100 · 867 bets |
| nnis0x88d8…8a50 | No | 10 | 99.8¢ | $10 | — |
| gopay0xb9d2…fb68 | Yes | 17,000 | 0.1¢ | $9 | — |
| rxfdguku0xa296…d047 | No | 8 | 99.9¢ | $8 | — |
| 64MGX75VLQ0xf4d0…4637 | No | 8 | 99.9¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 7 | 99.8¢ | $7 | — |
| puipui24860x70d9…a684 | Yes | 11,086 | 2.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$28.53 per $100 · 4,038 bets |
| 0x9aa0…8779 | No | 5 | 99.8¢ | $5 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 7,894 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 7,766 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,225 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 5,492 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$7.27 per $100 · 29,929+ bets · updating |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 5,480 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,011 bets |
| 0xe145…98d9 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Gynessol0x8da8…60af | No | 2 | 99.9¢ | $2 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 3,853 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,087 bets |
| Ardtysrt010x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | 3,746 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 3,587 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 3,563 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| denuh0x0d01…5e59 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 2,828 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| gearindre0x9a88…cdc0 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | Yes | 2,337 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Verfff0xad91…8709 | No | 1 | 92.0¢ | $1 | — |
| girele0xfebc…76de | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 1centYes0x888e…b1a6 | Yes | 1,611 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 1,470 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.63 per $100 · 3,766 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 1,459 | 2.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.92 per $100 · 18,788 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,443 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| rocky420100x84d7…298f | Yes | 1,244 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 1,161 | 0.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| 0x1194…8e19 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x12356510x1bfb…8bea | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 3,828 bets |
| 0x21aa…7291 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| labistiiia0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.36 per $100 · 22,813 bets |
| 0x43cd…bf40 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x65de…9d0e | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x745e…b1cc | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9b6e…1cea | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa143…a135 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| BrynDavis0xd074…5800 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xdf0a…7ce2 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 944 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| Binotto0xdd9e…49b3 | Yes | 880 | 1.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$19.17 per $100 · 1,659 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | Yes | 843 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | 836 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 810 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| avengers2357avengers0xf95e…ec50 | Yes | 724 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 674 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| ImHunterEye0xd07d…e09d | Yes | 574 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Mladenvic0xe85c…a62c | Yes | 570 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 525 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.43 per $100 · 38,405+ bets · updating |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 519 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 515 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.14 per $100 · 30,125+ bets · updating |
| Ameanchink0x2cbe…b02f | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| kaitemo0x7b0f…145c | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| makt9b0x7b9a…f9d7 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa3a9…dc0a | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xadec…8de2 | No | 0 | 91.3¢ | $0 | — |
| lechefenchef0xdae3…0863 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x01d2…c603 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8db8…c3f0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9120…2fcc | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xde06…bcb7 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x72e0…0b96 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2c78…adf3 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3317…76b4 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9b4b…591c | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x227b…76f9 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| talbesa1230x7861…3dfe | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa996…34b5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| influenz.eth0xe8dd…ec86 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 29,730+ bets · updating |
| 0x6a07…2952 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| hklcrypt0x7449…c05e | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xaced…7eb5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd39c…8d35 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Laurentdepau0x38ab…ab66 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa158…1c1b | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8220…92a5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6f01…cc23 | No | 0 | 89.4¢ | $0 | — |
| lonelyfighter0x97c6…6587 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| IjasAhammedI20x2a91…ee21 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe36a…671d | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9f42…260f | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| nullpointa0xc617…0d15 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| paaji-honey0xc6bf…8d94 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Athif188677380x0c42…32b4 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| mmm1234.12340x1804…bd47 | No | 0 | 81.7¢ | $0 | — |
| jordan00734440x1987…6487 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| MangWasmin0x1b32…c8f0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| pavvzyk0x3814…f0bf | No | 0 | 90.9¢ | $0 | — |
| shine0xe4cf…78c4 | Yes | 0 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 0 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 625 events · $32.1M in play
Exactly one of this event's 23 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.