Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:18 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | Yes | 668 | 17.1¢ | $145 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 85 | 69.8¢ | $67 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 244 | 26.9¢ | $53 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 60 | 74.3¢ | $47 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 84.4¢ | $31 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| HenriIV0x8d85…726f | Yes | 120 | 36.2¢ | $26 | — |
| BreaktheChain0x0182…810a | No | 25 | 72.4¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 32.4¢ | $16 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 20 | 83.6¢ | $16 | — |
| larry190xcf48…c857 | No | 15 | 68.7¢ | $12 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 31.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1 | No | 7 | 75.1¢ | $6 | — |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 24 | 20.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$7.27 per $100 · 35,318+ bets · updating |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 23 | 36.2¢ | $5 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 19 | 29.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| aybashi0x7f7c…de70 | No | 5 | 84.3¢ | $4 | — |
| UpTheStairs0x8bac…5b0e | Yes | 15 | 25.9¢ | $3 | — |
| ostralman0xc3f3…142d | Yes | 9 | 32.1¢ | $2 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 2 | 74.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | 3 | 30.9¢ | $1 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 2 | 16.6¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| kor-and-m0x0b14…f1f5 | No | 0 | 69.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 1 | 18.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 0 | 23.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| T222222222220xea7f…b855 | No | 0 | 70.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 0 | 17.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6b0b…ca40 | Yes | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 31.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| 0xcca3…c872 | No | 0 | 73.0¢ | $0 | — |
| obscure10x8268…e7fd | Yes | 0 | 30.2¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 20 shares each side · Show
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