Market · 19 of 23 outcomes
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| caviaro0xb36b…7804 | Yes | 188,003 | 0.1¢ | $94 | Proven+$4.76 per $100 · 867 bets |
| tu78re0xd4aa…66ea | No | 60 | 99.9¢ | $60 | — |
| pregamee0xa88d…9830 | Yes | 75,000 | 0.1¢ | $38 | — |
| tumhhuhu0xe753…02b3 | No | 18 | 99.9¢ | $18 | — |
| gopay0xb9d2…fb68 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.1¢ | $15 | — |
| puipui24860x70d9…a684 | Yes | 24,320 | 2.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$28.52 per $100 · 4,039 bets |
| 0x2081…c852 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| 64MGX75VLQ0xf4d0…4637 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 7 | 99.8¢ | $7 | — |
| Aman88080xf940…7736 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.2¢ | $5 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 7,765 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 7,563 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$7.95 per $100 · 18,818 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 7,169 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.62 per $100 · 87,327 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 6,542 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,694 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 5,505 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 56,884 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 5,300 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,355 bets |
| tixxerolake0xffbb…0ad8 | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 3,884 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| saralord0x17fd…252c | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 3,587 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 3,100 | 0.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | Yes | 2,737 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Ardtysrt010x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | 2,651 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 6,078 bets |
| gg5560x6ddb…0b29 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Kiralitto0x4286…a8e4 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| oopp0000x3d5f…f331 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 88u0x828b…965e | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Touasara0x078a…ca98 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Tixrex0x0f2f…1136 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Gucky-450xe613…540e | Yes | 2,000 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$9.88 per $100 · 2,562 bets |
| mygogogo0x00ee…1128 | Yes | 1,803 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 1,470 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.64 per $100 · 3,807 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,443 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| rocky420100x84d7…298f | Yes | 1,249 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 9,913 bets |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| labistiiia0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.36 per $100 · 22,813 bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| karttitan0xe4f1…9833 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Binotto0xdd9e…49b3 | Yes | 880 | 1.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$19.17 per $100 · 1,659 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 860 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92 | Yes | 843 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 260 bets |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | 842 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.38 per $100 · 41,591+ bets · updating |
| avengers2357avengers0xf95e…ec50 | Yes | 724 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 674 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| mymacbook0x0999…dd96 | Yes | 663 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| UbuntuTrading0xc3cd…816c | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.63 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 553 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| pd.unique0x27ab…e521 | Yes | 525 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 30,847 bets |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 50,296 bets |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 519 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.73 per $100 · 43,120 bets |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 515 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.13 per $100 · 58,633+ bets · updating |
| makt9b0x7b9a…f9d7 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 1centYes0x888e…b1a6 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Le-PnL-Maker0x8d3e…2323 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| thi3f0xc982…044b | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdaf9…dba5 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe77a…1382 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | Yes | 482 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | Yes | 450 | 1.8¢ | $0 | — |
| merod0x8373…f0bc | Yes | 437 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.70 per $100 · 17,596 bets |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | Yes | 406 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 361 | 1.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 319 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.76 per $100 · 71,440+ bets · updating |
| 0x274b…61e6 | Yes | 316 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| PollyForge0xc540…f00d | Yes | 300 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| hklcrypt0x7449…c05e | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Waeiro0x73f4…1183 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x01d2…c603 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa158…1c1b | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| lonelyfighter0x97c6…6587 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| sebelmaestro0x1a96…9797 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 5,892 bets |
| 0xd39c…8d35 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Laurentdepau0x38ab…ab66 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6a07…2952 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3317…76b4 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| influenz.eth0xe8dd…ec86 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 45,814 bets |
| 0x9120…2fcc | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xaced…7eb5 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2c78…adf3 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| jeanmermier0x1e63…7267 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9e7c…f06f | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa996…34b5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8db8…c3f0 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8220…92a5 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| nullpointa0xc617…0d15 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| MaisBeni0x0a2c…56fd | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Sifat0760x198f…2f21 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3243…81c9 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| WallisKelvin0x4841…e6c2 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Nehakha410632920x5364…1f49 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Aria29620x5e48…d445 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| MehediH843277140x7982…0c17 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| deisynea0x96b6…5a80 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| MdMosad437333320xb3c4…3c7b | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 0 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 28,074 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 692 events · $32.4M in play
Exactly one of this event's 23 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.