Market · 22 of 23 outcomes
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:26 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 692 events · $32.6M in play
Exactly one of this event's 23 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xheavy8880xec98…afcd | No | 9,373 | 51.9¢ | $9.37K | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 17,745 bets |
| 0x26b2…4486 | No | 3,000 | 96.1¢ | $3K | Losing−$1.31 per $100 · 308 bets |
| Gohst0x2d4b…ca7a | No | 2,660 | 15.0¢ | $2.66K | Proven+$80.31 per $100 · 2,060 bets |
| 0x095d…52cf | No | 1,287 | 96.3¢ | $1.29K | Losing−$2.80 per $100 · 676 bets |
| melganis0x0bfb…26a7 | No | 200 | 96.3¢ | $200 | Proven+$4.74 per $100 · 2,886 bets |
| VortexTrading0x41c7…0df5 | No | 100 | 96.1¢ | $100 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 5,248 bets |
| we-are-the-world20x8569…2267 | No | 93 | 97.9¢ | $93 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 60 | 91.7¢ | $60 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| warptrading0x6f08…54d3 | No | 60 | 84.0¢ | $59 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 10,198 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 50 | 22.0¢ | $50 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 0x76d2…153a | Yes | 89,199 | 4.0¢ | $45 | New71 settled bets |
| bnblabs0x9aa9…9378 | No | 40 | 96.8¢ | $40 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | No | 40 | 90.3¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x6973…53ca | No | 37 | 96.9¢ | $37 | New55 settled bets |
| Anon2340xf3ac…f23d | No | 32 | 77.0¢ | $32 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 3,578 bets |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | No | 32 | 87.7¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| caviaro0xb36b…7804 | Yes | 62,211 | 0.1¢ | $31 | Proven+$4.76 per $100 · 867 bets |
| Main2220x09db…1385 | No | 31 | 99.2¢ | $31 | Proven+$3.80 per $100 · 116 bets |
| AJK20x014e…3794 | No | 30 | 99.8¢ | $30 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 263 bets |
| ForgShman0x5aad…c5ad | No | 29 | 68.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$8.23 per $100 · 139 bets |
| 0xe15e…301c | Yes | 47,004 | 93.6¢ | $24 | — |
| almondlover90xdd45…59b2 | No | 19 | 79.0¢ | $19 | — |
| SarahThomson0x4978…9ed0 | No | 18 | 97.1¢ | $18 | New9 settled bets |
| 64MGX75VLQ0xf4d0…4637 | No | 16 | 99.9¢ | $16 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| hernandezkelly0x2af6…1c09 | No | 15 | 97.8¢ | $15 | New45 settled bets |
| gail760xa850…cc36 | No | 15 | 96.4¢ | $15 | — |
| UssTrippingHigh0x417b…18d3 | No | 12 | 96.3¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.77 per $100 · 2,522 bets |
| 0x1694…e6c8 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | New50 settled bets |
| 0xce38…eecd | No | 12 | 91.0¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x43e8…af56 | No | 11 | 96.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$4.40 per $100 · 5,554 bets |
| goldeye0x705d…3438 | No | 10 | 73.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$26.93 per $100 · 249 bets |
| eredfgfg0xa4d9…96ed | No | 10 | 83.0¢ | $10 | — |
| hesure0xbe0e…d429 | No | 10 | 5.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Chungvicular0x41ea…7a3d | Yes | 17,720 | 7.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$6.94 per $100 · 188 bets |
| 0x51a4…02d6 | Yes | 17,363 | 12.1¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.19 per $100 · 264 bets |
| parklsonstt0x3165…a6ac | No | 9 | 87.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.07 per $100 · 110 bets |
| Barcafansaodk0x64a1…bf48 | No | 9 | 85.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.78 per $100 · 112 bets |
| zerosmarket0x7ff6…9e62 | No | 9 | 87.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 117 bets |
| ckwes0xf49b…b6ab | No | 9 | 87.0¢ | $8 | — |
| khamanal0xa344…c58b | No | 7 | 99.3¢ | $7 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 7 | 68.0¢ | $7 | — |
| jjster0xdf86…601f | Yes | 12,711 | 0.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x3764…fae8 | No | 6 | 82.0¢ | $6 | New20 settled bets |
| MaximusGluteusDumpTruckus0x9d69…ab3a | No | 6 | 86.0¢ | $6 | — |
| DM1230x9199…f1cd | Yes | 11,337 | 35.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xc203…ea5a | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| shinyandrew0x60cc…f23f | Yes | 10,000 | 2.1¢ | $5 | Proven+$43.91 per $100 · 362 bets |
| barenverge0x4eb6…5e8a | No | 5 | 96.2¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 1,857 bets |
| lovnil0xc67e…0e52 | No | 5 | 86.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x1909…f8b4 | Yes | 9,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | New5 settled bets |
| firstman120x693e…0aa4 | No | 4 | 89.0¢ | $4 | New0 settled bets |
| JustBot0xe33b…6de8 | No | 4 | 79.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 7,563 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$7.95 per $100 · 18,827 bets |
| SupersonicStrawberry0x2302…d402 | No | 4 | 55.1¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.35 per $100 · 1,359 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 7,174 | 2.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.62 per $100 · 87,343 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 7,156 | 2.3¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 0xd65f…edb8 | Yes | 7,056 | 3.9¢ | $4 | New0 settled bets |
| Grav0x3c61…7fb8 | No | 3 | 94.0¢ | $3 | New40 settled bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 5,501 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,061 bets |
| twinna0xa43d…00f4 | Yes | 5,250 | 2.9¢ | $3 | Proven+$12.80 per $100 · 245 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 5,237 | 2.2¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,460 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 4,646 | 5.1¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| jipeng0xad70…036b | No | 2 | 92.0¢ | $2 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 4,253 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,721 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 4,232 | 2.3¢ | $2 | New41 settled bets |
| gopay0xb9d2…fb68 | Yes | 4,000 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x9a09…60eb | Yes | 3,766 | 13.3¢ | $2 | New19 settled bets |
| PigsandBattleships0x1188…1d1f | Yes | 3,600 | 8.4¢ | $2 | New27 settled bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 3,587 | 2.2¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| JohnP920x9163…82ae | Yes | 3,386 | 2.4¢ | $2 | — |
| dreamingToBeAGuru0xeed4…c1c2 | Yes | 3,281 | 2.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6918…725f | No | 2 | 96.6¢ | $2 | New64 settled bets |
| 0xe2f8…0ef8 | No | 2 | 65.0¢ | $2 | — |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 2,888 | 2.1¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | Yes | 2,737 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| mao010xef02…4f7e | Yes | 2,699 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| vitalitytens0xa1b9…8179 | No | 1 | 56.0¢ | $1 | — |
| welcomyfriend0x68e2…30ac | Yes | 2,500 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$36.99 per $100 · 136 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 2,469 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,731 bets |
| lockero0x2928…b217 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| tiger55110x3e6a…e86d | Yes | 2,115 | 1.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 1,074 bets |
| 0xa221…7588 | Yes | 1,786 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0363…cac1 | Yes | 1,693 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| rondon890x2177…3fb4 | Yes | 1,611 | 3.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 226 bets |
| a4esniw0x55d3…daff | Yes | 1,487 | 10.1¢ | $1 | New64 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,482 | 1.6¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,057 bets |
| co20x88e8…d208 | Yes | 1,479 | 13.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 1,470 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.64 per $100 · 3,807 bets |
| simplystupid1880x682c…17ae | Yes | 1,404 | 1.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,502 bets |
| 0x05ff…7567 | Yes | 1,220 | 41.0¢ | $1 | New0 settled bets |
| puipui24860x70d9…a684 | Yes | 1,215 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$28.52 per $100 · 4,039 bets |
| projectparrot0xc77b…a526 | Yes | 1,170 | 1.2¢ | $1 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 1,129 | 1.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 1,047 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| dcposch0x29a6…06af | Yes | 1,027 | 35.8¢ | $1 | New30 settled bets |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| labistiiia0x3879…d8c3 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.36 per $100 · 22,813 bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| PuffyCrow20260x5db4…5b2f | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $1 | New38 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.