Market · 15 of 16 outcomes
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 11:06 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dftghgd0xb734…7739 | No | 658 | 95.1¢ | $644 | — |
| 0x452d…f886 | No | 475 | 97.2¢ | $464 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 320 bets |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | No | 400 | 93.0¢ | $391 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| jhmfxx0xe4d1…70bb | No | 385 | 95.1¢ | $377 | — |
| vbnvcxft0xb4bb…c6b3 | No | 342 | 95.1¢ | $335 | — |
| gghff0x044f…d1f1 | No | 300 | 91.0¢ | $294 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
4 more outcomes in this event.