Market · 15 of 16 outcomes
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 13:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dftghgd0xb734…7739 | No | 658 | 95.1¢ | $644 | — |
| 0x452d…f886 | No | 475 | 97.2¢ | $464 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 320 bets |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | No | 400 | 93.0¢ | $391 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| jhmfxx0xe4d1…70bb | No | 385 | 95.1¢ | $377 | — |
| vbnvcxft0xb4bb…c6b3 | No | 342 | 95.1¢ | $334 | — |
| gghff0x044f…d1f1 | No | 300 | 91.0¢ | $293 | — |
| tdyjsdefs0x1eff…0956 | No | 300 | 95.1¢ | $293 | — |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 114 | 92.8¢ | $111 | — |
| 0xaf40…5662 | No | 94 | 94.5¢ | $92 | — |
| NoFear-4180xe78b…206e | No | 81 | 95.6¢ | $79 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 80 | 96.1¢ | $78 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,999 bets |
| Zaratustra0x7818…d185 | No | 68 | 95.1¢ | $67 | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 715 bets |
| yannfournier0xcc8a…7d9c | No | 42 | 95.4¢ | $41 | — |
| sfhswe0x9dce…8269 | Yes | 1,685 | 4.9¢ | $37 | — |
| streetmonster0x3ead…d177 | No | 32 | 95.2¢ | $31 | New67 settled bets |
| alfredon9960xc96a…702c | No | 22 | 90.0¢ | $22 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 21 | 96.9¢ | $21 | Losing−$7.72 per $100 · 3,183 bets |
| 0xe5c2…2b81 | No | 20 | 95.5¢ | $20 | — |
| MiMiMi-5090x00e5…ce60 | No | 17 | 92.0¢ | $17 | — |
| patientman0x6a3b…c0e0 | No | 15 | 92.0¢ | $15 | New26 settled bets |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 576 | 2.8¢ | $13 | Losing−$5.95 per $100 · 8,491 bets |
| what-are-the-odds0x2eb9…7459 | Yes | 500 | 9.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 268 | 5.1¢ | $6 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| 0xd217…a747 | No | 5 | 93.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Kr4j00xc2b8…d2ac | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | — |
| nevermoreee0x3677…c090 | No | 5 | 94.2¢ | $5 | — |
| balerinacapuchina0xd86d…648d | No | 5 | 92.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 220 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 4 | 95.6¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 632 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 182 | 7.6¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,063 bets |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 2 | 94.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x8021…6189 | No | 2 | 95.9¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.71 per $100 · 166 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 82 | 4.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,862+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 77 | 6.1¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 67 | 3.0¢ | $1 | — |
| vitality260x595c…0c7f | No | 1 | 92.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6363…98b2 | No | 1 | 95.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.67 per $100 · 350 bets |
| 0x1508…2e0b | No | 1 | 95.3¢ | $1 | — |
| man33333333x5x0x8cc2…5319 | No | 1 | 96.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Oxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C50xae58…e5c5 | No | 1 | 95.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 36 | 1.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 4,816 bets |
| 0x4dcd…71a0 | Yes | 13 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 10 | 5.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | 2 | 4.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.04 per $100 · 2,556 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 97.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| 76dgdf0x93bc…c5be | Yes | 0 | 4.2¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.