Market · 11 of 16 outcomes
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
4 more outcomes in this event.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 1,200 | 96.9¢ | $1.16K | — |
| BlindAndDeaf0x40a6…133c | No | 1,074 | 93.1¢ | $1.04K | New39 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| aviato0x2a01…6397 |
| No |
| 688 |
| 95.2¢ |
| $667 |
| Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,736 bets |
| yjsds0x5cd7…27e6 | No | 685 | 97.5¢ | $664 | — |
| seryesd0xcf66…ba12 | No | 555 | 97.5¢ | $538 | — |
| dftyfh0x29ff…3096 | No | 500 | 97.5¢ | $485 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 177 shares each side · Show
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