Market · 12 of 16 outcomes
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 1,200 | 96.9¢ | $1.16K | — |
| BlindAndDeaf0x40a6…133c | No | 1,074 | 93.1¢ | $1.04K | New39 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| aviato0x2a01…6397 |
| No |
| 688 |
| 95.2¢ |
| $667 |
| Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,736 bets |
| yjsds0x5cd7…27e6 | No | 685 | 97.5¢ | $664 | — |
| seryesd0xcf66…ba12 | No | 555 | 97.5¢ | $538 | — |
| dftyfh0x29ff…3096 | No | 500 | 97.5¢ | $485 | — |
| huitdg0x0f98…eb9e | No | 468 | 97.5¢ | $454 | — |
| thasffg0xf1ea…d3e2 | No | 408 | 97.5¢ | $396 | — |
| hjiulftgthfd0x9b3c…6c6a | No | 385 | 97.5¢ | $373 | — |
| yjesse0x8564…a6ef | No | 382 | 97.5¢ | $370 | — |
| yukmesfse0xff4f…9dfe | No | 352 | 97.5¢ | $341 | — |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | No | 215 | 93.3¢ | $208 | — |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 107 | 94.2¢ | $104 | — |
| rtyjsse0xd6a4…1abc | Yes | 2,000 | 2.5¢ | $61 | — |
| streetmonster0x3ead…d177 | No | 61 | 97.8¢ | $59 | — |
| rthseasv0x259b…742e | Yes | 1,735 | 2.5¢ | $53 | — |
| 0x452d…f886 | No | 43 | 96.3¢ | $42 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 35 | 95.7¢ | $34 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 848 | 4.6¢ | $26 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 4,762 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 706 | 3.8¢ | $22 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
| PAntipov0xea1d…e993 | No | 21 | 95.0¢ | $20 | — |
| yannfournier0xcc8a…7d9c | No | 21 | 96.3¢ | $20 | — |
| wazzzzzap0xfa12…9ff3 | No | 17 | 96.8¢ | $17 | Proven+$3.16 per $100 · 290 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 431 | 6.4¢ | $13 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| alfredon9960xc96a…702c | No | 11 | 90.0¢ | $11 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 332 | 5.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 323 | 3.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$13.19 per $100 · 8,595 bets |
| lifeCreator30x526b…cdee | No | 10 | 95.9¢ | $10 | — |
| DREAMBIG.0x9e8e…8db8 | Yes | 250 | 7.8¢ | $8 | Proven+$18.01 per $100 · 5,706 bets |
| 0xd217…a747 | No | 6 | 96.2¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 194 | 5.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| 0xf1b6…bfd2 | No | 5 | 95.6¢ | $5 | — |
| Welcome20260x1073…d8ba | No | 5 | 97.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 4 | 78.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 109 | 3.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0x8021…6189 | No | 2 | 96.8¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5499…fbb8 | No | 2 | 97.2¢ | $2 | — |
| qcp140xa76b…8a50 | Yes | 45 | 9.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 42 | 4.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 41 | 5.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0xca4c…186f | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $1 | — |
| mndwjfpprw0x6622…0f4b | No | 1 | 96.0¢ | $1 | — |
| man33333333x5x0x8cc2…5319 | No | 1 | 96.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1508…2e0b | No | 1 | 96.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6363…98b2 | No | 1 | 98.9¢ | $1 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 15 | 2.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe1d4…a31e | Yes | 11 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| kk819ddd0x4b58…dd1a | Yes | 10 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 67xxabcsdafasdf0x779d…267c | Yes | 10 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| sdafsafd0x8513…6a53 | Yes | 10 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf111120xaf53…ca3b | Yes | 10 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 10 | 6.2¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | Yes | 10 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | Yes | 10 | 6.6¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 7 | 5.3¢ | $0 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 0 | 94.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 2 | 6.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 2 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| 76dgdf0x93bc…c5be | Yes | 2 | 10.2¢ | $0 | — |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | 1 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Elton1230x8673…4025 | No | 0 | 89.8¢ | $0 | — |
| EltS0xd0c6…d465 | No | 0 | 88.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf129…1edc | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 92.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Colala0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | 0 | 10.9¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 31,628 bets |
| malluc0x5839…c975 | Yes | 0 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 177 shares each side · Show
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