Market · 5 of 8 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 02:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $151K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| valetecaolho0x162f…978f | Yes | 42,727 | 2.4¢ | $1.35K | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 1,336 | 97.6¢ | $1.29K | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 30,110 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 763 | 97.2¢ | $739 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,710 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 665 | 94.2¢ | $644 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,075 bets |
| 0xf5e4…471a | Yes | 6,439 | 0.3¢ | $203 | — |
| pgmat0xd534…be5c | Yes | 3,941 | 2.9¢ | $124 | — |
| GamGanapati0xbd8a…f9bd | No | 100 | 98.0¢ | $97 | Proven+$2.75 per $100 · 820 bets |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | No | 80 | 99.0¢ | $77 | — |
| Telekinesis880xe44b…6e0a | Yes | 2,200 | 2.4¢ | $69 | — |
| 0x7708…faf1 | Yes | 2,186 | 3.8¢ | $69 | — |
| dassmann0x599c…e1f6 | Yes | 1,618 | 3.2¢ | $51 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | No | 50 | 97.3¢ | $48 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| 0x4a5b…4e4d | Yes | 1,248 | 0.8¢ | $39 | — |
| 0xa33e…7e84 | Yes | 1,134 | 0.9¢ | $36 | — |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 1,045 | 3.2¢ | $33 | — |
| Fumiguix0x3716…30b4 | Yes | 903 | 2.6¢ | $28 | — |
| 0x85cd…2f00 | Yes | 871 | 0.6¢ | $27 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 28 | 97.5¢ | $27 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| 0xdd3c…a088 | Yes | 832 | 2.3¢ | $26 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 737 | 0.7¢ | $23 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| davhcc0xe056…9230 | No | 22 | 98.0¢ | $21 | — |
| Edje250x6268…6031 | Yes | 646 | 2.5¢ | $20 | Positive+$30.90 per $100 · 1,836 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 20 | 94.5¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| 0xb500…2708 | Yes | 443 | 1.4¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xcc69…ff2e | Yes | 392 | 2.3¢ | $12 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 367 | 11.1¢ | $12 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,917 bets |
| 0x4b83…7005 | No | 11 | 97.6¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x36e5…fd74 | Yes | 333 | 2.2¢ | $11 | New75 settled bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 93.7¢ | $10 | — |
| etghzcer0x7b89…ddae | Yes | 287 | 2.3¢ | $9 | — |
| Macaros0x4445…6d1a | Yes | 238 | 2.2¢ | $8 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 8 | 96.2¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 202 | 11.1¢ | $6 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 12,955 bets |
| Bitbeee0x87ec…f2a9 | Yes | 170 | 2.5¢ | $5 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 154 | 1.7¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
| 0x30c4…e2df | Yes | 154 | 2.7¢ | $5 | — |
| brukfs560x1dcf…0137 | No | 5 | 99.6¢ | $5 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 150 | 11.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| 0x4ca4…c467 | Yes | 148 | 3.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$11.65 per $100 · 325 bets |
| Toby7790xe892…18db | Yes | 132 | 7.9¢ | $4 | — |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 100 | 11.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| 0xcc8c…aef2 | No | 3 | 97.7¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 66 | 10.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x86aa…2682 | No | 2 | 97.1¢ | $2 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 61 | 0.6¢ | $2 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,318 bets |
| 0xe600…a907 | No | 2 | 97.6¢ | $2 | — |
| joao.humberto0xe861…461e | Yes | 43 | 2.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 40 | 0.4¢ | $1 | New96 settled bets |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | Yes | 35 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 34 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0x60f2…25d0 | No | 1 | 98.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$10.34 per $100 · 682 bets |
| 0xd060…9fec | No | 1 | 99.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 24 | 11.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| lpgb0x1f5f…50fa | Yes | 18 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 12 | 1.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 97.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | Yes | 10 | 3.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | Yes | 10 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | Yes | 2 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 2 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.87 per $100 · 1,441 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 1 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.77 per $100 · 77,753+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 6.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 2.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 0 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.