Market · 3 of 8 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | No | 4,395 | 85.3¢ | $3.75K | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 4,107 | 89.2¢ | $3.51K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | Yes | 16,107 | 12.8¢ | $2.36K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 471 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 2,200 | 85.2¢ | $1.88K | Losing−$1.02 per $100 · 104,544+ bets · updating |
| valetecaolho0x162f…978f | Yes | 11,393 | 13.3¢ | $1.67K | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,751 | 85.3¢ | $1.49K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | No | 1,743 | 84.0¢ | $1.49K | — |
| SadisticTendencies0x083d…b23b | Yes | 7,338 | 15.0¢ | $1.07K | — |
| SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e | Yes | 6,861 | 12.5¢ | $1.01K | Losing−$5.42 per $100 · 344 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 1,000 | 86.0¢ | $853 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | No | 1,000 | 80.5¢ | $853 | Proven+$5.82 per $100 · 7,338 bets |
| GabiFP0x65d4…b7e3 | No | 857 | 84.4¢ | $731 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 680 | 85.2¢ | $580 | Positive+$4.02 per $100 · 58,748+ bets · updating |
| Telekinesis880xe44b…6e0a | Yes | 3,765 | 11.5¢ | $552 | — |
| 0xce83…5b97 | No | 589 | 85.4¢ | $503 | — |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | Yes | 3,000 | 12.8¢ | $440 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,475 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 396 | 85.6¢ | $338 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| henribloc0x68e8…c464 | No | 353 | 85.4¢ | $302 | — |
| Bitbeee0x87ec…f2a9 | Yes | 2,043 | 16.2¢ | $299 | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 250 | 84.9¢ | $213 | — |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 1,443 | 13.9¢ | $211 | New96 settled bets |
| 0x4450…086c | No | 236 | 85.4¢ | $201 | — |
| pgmat0xd534…be5c | Yes | 1,272 | 4.7¢ | $186 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 160 | 85.8¢ | $137 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,912 bets |
| JohnP920x9163…82ae | No | 136 | 94.0¢ | $116 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 134 | 85.3¢ | $114 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| 0xcc69…ff2e | Yes | 749 | 7.7¢ | $110 | — |
| smartpreset0x1680…490d | No | 121 | 85.6¢ | $103 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | No | 116 | 86.3¢ | $99 | — |
| Mrhammer0x0a11…8aec | No | 115 | 87.1¢ | $99 | — |
| rafaelcorreiaa0x7c23…fd32 | Yes | 652 | 15.6¢ | $95 | — |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 500 | 11.1¢ | $73 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| 0x7708…faf1 | Yes | 476 | 16.2¢ | $70 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | No | 80 | 88.6¢ | $68 | — |
| 0xa33e…7e84 | Yes | 430 | 9.0¢ | $63 | — |
| JasonPunos0x47ae…ee94 | No | 70 | 87.8¢ | $60 | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 1,080 bets |
| G.laila0xa092…11e3 | Yes | 400 | 12.8¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.68 per $100 · 414 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 68 | 85.7¢ | $58 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,903 bets |
| 0x2d75…4e46 | No | 68 | 85.6¢ | $58 | — |
| 0x22da…ad06 | Yes | 394 | 14.1¢ | $58 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 379 | 2.0¢ | $56 | — |
| 657657570x2974…9c23 | Yes | 329 | 13.3¢ | $48 | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 376 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 319 | 11.1¢ | $47 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 100,872 bets |
| GroovyCr0c0dil30xa066…710b | Yes | 300 | 16.2¢ | $44 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 298 | 15.0¢ | $44 | — |
| cooljit0xa917…4e8d | No | 51 | 85.1¢ | $44 | — |
| 0xdfdc…1916 | Yes | 293 | 6.1¢ | $43 | — |
| OntheHedge0x6f71…b80e | No | 50 | 86.0¢ | $43 | — |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | No | 50 | 85.5¢ | $43 | — |
| 0xf5e4…471a | Yes | 290 | 1.1¢ | $42 | — |
| burakrum0x9fcf…8907 | No | 47 | 85.5¢ | $40 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 43 | 85.4¢ | $37 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| MyRisk0x648f…4b36 | No | 43 | 92.5¢ | $36 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 222 | 8.1¢ | $32 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| 0xdd3c…a088 | Yes | 210 | 4.0¢ | $31 | — |
| Fumiguix0x3716…30b4 | Yes | 207 | 15.8¢ | $30 | — |
| lochilo0x438c…481a | No | 29 | 85.3¢ | $25 | — |
| Predictandbreathe0x2707…0afa | Yes | 158 | 13.3¢ | $23 | Losing−$3.24 per $100 · 3,219 bets |
| 0x258f…1c1a | Yes | 147 | 15.5¢ | $21 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | No | 23 | 85.5¢ | $20 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 117 | 11.1¢ | $17 | Positive+$2.90 per $100 · 12,436 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 20 | 96.0¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| 0xd91e…b3d2 | No | 20 | 81.3¢ | $17 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 112 | 11.0¢ | $16 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| 0xb66c…a0f5 | Yes | 112 | 15.2¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.78 per $100 · 14,833 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 105 | 11.1¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| unwelcomeguy0x22a5…47ef | Yes | 102 | 20.3¢ | $15 | — |
| kadu0x6f67…8d70 | Yes | 100 | 14.6¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x6706…2341 | No | 17 | 85.2¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x7658…1c26 | No | 15 | 86.2¢ | $13 | — |
| QuessTea0070x660c…7f7a | No | 15 | 85.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x8fce…0a5b | Yes | 81 | 12.9¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | Yes | 80 | 11.1¢ | $12 | — |
| StormRazer0xa937…4152 | No | 13 | 85.3¢ | $11 | — |
| hgr10xab89…98e0 | No | 12 | 84.8¢ | $10 | — |
| jc8wupvy5r560x7919…ee88 | No | 12 | 86.5¢ | $10 | — |
| Macaros0x4445…6d1a | Yes | 65 | 15.8¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x4a5b…4e4d | Yes | 63 | 18.8¢ | $9 | — |
| hamid19190x3cbe…2520 | No | 10 | 85.4¢ | $9 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 88.2¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 80.8¢ | $9 | — |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 85.8¢ | $9 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 84.3¢ | $9 | — |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 85.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x13f5…e9a7 | No | 10 | 80.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.14 per $100 · 3,904 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 10 | 81.5¢ | $9 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 86.9¢ | $9 | — |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 85.8¢ | $9 | — |
| PedronAz0x9109…4265 | Yes | 50 | 4.2¢ | $7 | — |
| Jojobr0xfdb9…4ea5 | Yes | 45 | 15.9¢ | $7 | — |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 45 | 11.1¢ | $7 | Positive+$14.11 per $100 · 340 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 36 | 12.0¢ | $5 | — |
| alexgambler0x4a3d…558d | Yes | 33 | 15.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x4ca4…c467 | Yes | 33 | 15.6¢ | $5 | — |
| pretoriano0xe750…449f | Yes | 33 | 15.7¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x30c4…e2df | Yes | 33 | 15.7¢ | $5 | — |
| Onswaggie0x9b08…4632 | Yes | 33 | 15.8¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x9ba4…663f | Yes | 32 | 16.0¢ | $5 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 19 | 15.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.