Market · 1 of 8 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mr52global0x2344…6458 | Yes | 21,956 | 47.9¢ | $10.8K | New5 settled bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 19,664 | 55.9¢ | $10K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | Yes | 12,669 | 40.1¢ | $6.21K | Proven+$11.67 per $100 · 470 bets |
| SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e | Yes | 10,530 | 47.5¢ | $5.16K | Losing−$5.42 per $100 · 344 bets |
| 0xc728…3e5b | Yes | 6,897 | 44.8¢ | $3.38K | — |
| StudentMoney0xfb51…742d | Yes | 4,358 | 48.0¢ | $2.14K | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 1,758 bets |
| deltasniper0x0826…0b32 | No | 4,000 | 52.5¢ | $2.04K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 494 bets |
| Telekinesis880xe44b…6e0a | Yes | 3,736 | 42.4¢ | $1.83K | — |
| 0x4488…e319 | No | 3,110 | 50.0¢ | $1.59K | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 7,554 bets |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | Yes | 3,000 | 42.1¢ | $1.47K | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,475 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No | 2,399 | 52.6¢ | $1.22K | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | No | 2,126 | 52.9¢ | $1.08K | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 2,123 | 54.0¢ | $1.08K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| WalterWhiteW0xfacc…14f1 | Yes | 2,047 | 50.9¢ | $1K | — |
| IrineuVcNaoSabeNemEu0x48b9…b0ca | Yes | 1,803 | 51.0¢ | $884 | — |
| bancomaster0xa7ed…18f6 | Yes | 1,517 | 40.0¢ | $743 | — |
| novv250xa9fe…f135 | No | 1,317 | 53.8¢ | $672 | Losing−$25.33 per $100 · 112 bets |
| 0xa43b…9447 | Yes | 1,367 | 55.0¢ | $670 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 1,304 | 52.1¢ | $665 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| GroovyCr0c0dil30xa066…710b | Yes | 1,200 | 45.1¢ | $588 | — |
| haagzera10xeaf8…ce6d | Yes | 1,043 | 49.8¢ | $511 | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 1,000 | 52.0¢ | $510 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 863 | 55.4¢ | $440 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| excession0x360d…95ca | No | 768 | 53.4¢ | $392 | — |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | Yes | 586 | 48.0¢ | $287 | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 511 | 54.2¢ | $261 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | No | 500 | 60.0¢ | $255 | — |
| copefan0x9592…a85b | Yes | 501 | 45.0¢ | $245 | — |
| Kamyama0x07a1…ab95 | Yes | 497 | 48.0¢ | $244 | — |
| RayBrazil0xd95d…a058 | Yes | 476 | 43.0¢ | $233 | — |
| nofear7630x7af9…d415 | Yes | 451 | 38.0¢ | $221 | — |
| JoaoLagos0x0445…c3e1 | Yes | 449 | 51.0¢ | $220 | — |
| 0x9b27…1f42 | Yes | 434 | 51.1¢ | $213 | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 396 | 56.0¢ | $202 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | No | 383 | 52.0¢ | $195 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| luizfernando999990x3ff5…3b1f | Yes | 390 | 50.7¢ | $191 | — |
| Kutoba0x40b5…6b5f | Yes | 360 | 39.9¢ | $176 | — |
| 0xa33e…7e84 | Yes | 300 | 49.0¢ | $147 | — |
| 0xaaaf…8eb5 | Yes | 284 | 47.5¢ | $139 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 280 | 42.8¢ | $137 | — |
| pgmat0xd534…be5c | Yes | 278 | 40.4¢ | $136 | — |
| Lu4ns4ntoss0xc709…e8f1 | Yes | 213 | 47.7¢ | $104 | — |
| T4zoe0x8ded…6c29 | Yes | 211 | 50.0¢ | $103 | — |
| gat11210x966a…41ba | Yes | 208 | 49.0¢ | $102 | — |
| defeatatmarengo0x15bb…22b3 | Yes | 207 | 49.3¢ | $101 | — |
| rafaelcorreiaa0x7c23…fd32 | Yes | 201 | 50.7¢ | $99 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 160 | 50.0¢ | $82 | — |
| sidgley0xc4df…2313 | No | 157 | 51.9¢ | $80 | — |
| JohnP920x9163…82ae | No | 150 | 51.0¢ | $76 | — |
| MatheusTriginelli0x2928…cada | Yes | 138 | 37.3¢ | $67 | — |
| capivaradas0xc4ee…4816 | Yes | 135 | 50.0¢ | $66 | — |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | Yes | 124 | 38.9¢ | $61 | — |
| WashTrade0x4c2d…f8ae | No | 100 | 49.0¢ | $51 | Proven+$5.16 per $100 · 1,285 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | Yes | 100 | 49.6¢ | $49 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 13,909 bets |
| DarkFish0x87cb…6232 | Yes | 100 | 38.0¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xf205…90b7 | Yes | 100 | 50.0¢ | $49 | — |
| Golfinho100x5453…65ce | Yes | 98 | 30.0¢ | $48 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 321 bets |
| Eliasjunior0xbf66…9859 | No | 92 | 53.0¢ | $47 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 96 | 11.1¢ | $47 | — |
| 0xdd3c…a088 | Yes | 90 | 35.3¢ | $44 | — |
| unwelcomeguy0x22a5…47ef | Yes | 85 | 47.9¢ | $42 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | No | 80 | 54.0¢ | $41 | — |
| 0x4ca4…c467 | Yes | 82 | 50.0¢ | $40 | — |
| LudwigVonMises0xc432…0fc9 | Yes | 76 | 33.9¢ | $37 | — |
| seethreepoh0xad54…006a | No | 67 | 58.6¢ | $34 | — |
| Isengard10x9032…b5c3 | No | 66 | 50.0¢ | $33 | — |
| Nicolasro910x671c…e261 | Yes | 65 | 47.2¢ | $32 | — |
| Victor7860x5e64…0f63 | Yes | 61 | 50.0¢ | $30 | — |
| KenneyG0xc901…0c1d | Yes | 61 | 47.0¢ | $30 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 60 | 37.0¢ | $29 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 60 | 31.0¢ | $29 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| gcersosimo0xf8f7…93a4 | Yes | 60 | 51.0¢ | $29 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 57 | 49.0¢ | $28 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 41 | 49.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| theresawright0x3731…02dd | No | 40 | 64.0¢ | $21 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 53.5¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 30 | 52.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 24 | 58.1¢ | $12 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 20 | 49.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 20 | 64.5¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 18 | 51.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 57.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| lulu2130xa25e…2dd7 | No | 10 | 54.0¢ | $5 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 53.0¢ | $5 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 56.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc059…ae14 | No | 10 | 53.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc3a4…83cd | No | 10 | 52.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 123123..20x4d0c…6221 | No | 9 | 54.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf65a…d772 | No | 9 | 55.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf965…ccb0 | No | 9 | 54.9¢ | $4 | New34 settled bets |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | No | 5 | 53.0¢ | $3 | — |
| dayelot0x3611…5f0d | No | 5 | 55.0¢ | $3 | — |
| wwashley0xb2b1…b789 | No | 5 | 51.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 5 | 51.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xf08a…2cb6 | No | 4 | 52.5¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x46f7…0f92 | No | 3 | 53.0¢ | $1 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 1 | 53.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | No | 1 | 50.4¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.