Market · 1 of 12 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snoorrason0x805a…0635 | No | 17,556 | 63.4¢ | $12.2K | Positive+$2.75 per $100 · 6,230 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | No | 16,351 | 71.0¢ | $11.4K | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | Yes | 20,893 | 31.7¢ | $6.37K | Proven+$4.92 per $100 · 2,289 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 4,929 | 67.8¢ | $3.43K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | Yes | 7,587 | 33.0¢ | $2.31K | Positive+$11.47 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | No | 2,500 | 72.0¢ | $1.74K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 6,881 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | Yes | 3,898 | 31.4¢ | $1.19K | New60 settled bets |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | No | 1,157 | 74.5¢ | $804 | — |
| clazzy10xb23e…829a | No | 1,000 | 71.0¢ | $695 | — |
| segment30xa10c…b2de | Yes | 2,000 | 36.0¢ | $610 | New2 settled bets |
| scrapbook0x414b…0d3f | Yes | 2,000 | 27.0¢ | $610 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 1,538 | 38.9¢ | $469 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 1,500 | 33.5¢ | $457 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| PCMTest0x51b1…7865 | No | 600 | 68.9¢ | $417 | — |
| balabalababalabala0x2779…239a | Yes | 1,000 | 38.0¢ | $305 | — |
| Mst-br0xdda5…c82a | Yes | 1,000 | 35.0¢ | $305 | — |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 1,000 | 37.0¢ | $305 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| TheBasementView0xa8f9…a794 | No | 350 | 67.9¢ | $243 | — |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 298 | 67.9¢ | $207 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | No | 256 | 73.6¢ | $178 | — |
| cocobobo0x6122…fc91 | Yes | 500 | 38.9¢ | $153 | New48 settled bets |
| BamseOgKylling0xd9e7…4cde | Yes | 500 | 37.0¢ | $153 | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 195 bets |
| Po1yBot-6NEazyE4Ef0x87d1…3da3 | No | 201 | 70.0¢ | $140 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 188 | 68.0¢ | $131 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 400 | 32.2¢ | $122 | New96 settled bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | No | 132 | 68.8¢ | $92 | — |
| OkieDokiePeon0x9ddf…2c83 | Yes | 300 | 31.0¢ | $92 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,178 bets |
| family-fund0xe487…384e | Yes | 288 | 32.3¢ | $88 | — |
| ninetyfourpercent0x7573…af5e | No | 113 | 67.9¢ | $79 | New5 settled bets |
| 0xb66c…a0f5 | Yes | 246 | 39.5¢ | $75 | Break-even−$0.78 per $100 · 14,833 bets |
| ox01e607d27875e10bb09FcF3309C899a6643136410x01e6…3641 | Yes | 206 | 34.2¢ | $63 | — |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 200 | 38.0¢ | $61 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| DAkostya0xd6d3…161c | Yes | 198 | 38.6¢ | $61 | — |
| pmt-quiet-owl0xdeb2…3d10 | No | 80 | 70.0¢ | $56 | — |
| OneLastHurrah0x7803…9e91 | No | 75 | 71.1¢ | $52 | — |
| doubleone20xff91…ab3a | Yes | 166 | 34.5¢ | $51 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 833 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 63 | 64.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | Yes | 141 | 33.7¢ | $43 | — |
| cooljit0xa917…4e8d | No | 62 | 68.9¢ | $43 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 60 | 64.0¢ | $42 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 47 | 73.7¢ | $32 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| flyxiaye0x7b7b…6a5f | Yes | 104 | 29.8¢ | $32 | — |
| Cescoli0x569b…c66e | Yes | 90 | 36.9¢ | $28 | — |
| PABLOESCOBAR250x6b49…2e46 | No | 35 | 63.9¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x86f0…610c | Yes | 79 | 38.9¢ | $24 | — |
| KiraHK10xa87f…864d | No | 32 | 71.0¢ | $22 | — |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | Yes | 70 | 28.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| sciuboi0xd6b6…342b | No | 30 | 67.0¢ | $21 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 584 bets |
| 0xe96d…72ca | Yes | 65 | 36.4¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xe308…40ae | Yes | 60 | 37.0¢ | $18 | — |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6 | No | 25 | 71.2¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xf692…554c | Yes | 51 | 28.8¢ | $15 | — |
| yetiyetiyeti0x9cfc…3671 | Yes | 48 | 30.8¢ | $15 | — |
| RewardsProduction0x581e…1526 | No | 20 | 75.0¢ | $14 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 68.9¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| ruyi6860x8e57…53b3 | Yes | 36 | 28.8¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xa1c7…bdbb | No | 15 | 68.9¢ | $10 | New83 settled bets |
| SadTofuGan0xaf1f…4af9 | Yes | 33 | 31.8¢ | $10 | — |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 32 | 32.9¢ | $10 | — |
| mhub99720xa131…2438 | No | 14 | 70.8¢ | $10 | — |
| FastPaws0x0548…d852 | Yes | 30 | 27.0¢ | $9 | New39 settled bets |
| vwundaba0xeb48…2b8a | Yes | 30 | 33.9¢ | $9 | — |
| lebakaspeppi0x7e23…7896 | Yes | 29 | 35.3¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x13f5…e9a7 | Yes | 27 | 29.9¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.14 per $100 · 3,904 bets |
| DanBolla330x4934…6d71 | Yes | 26 | 40.0¢ | $8 | — |
| jenendiic8340x85b5…3c42 | No | 10 | 73.5¢ | $7 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 22 | 30.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| Klanto0x98e3…9208 | No | 9 | 63.9¢ | $6 | — |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | Yes | 20 | 37.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| 0x4d5b…acdc | No | 8 | 67.9¢ | $6 | — |
| newbiejjh0x17bd…6550 | No | 8 | 65.9¢ | $5 | — |
| sporty23120x54f6…8402 | Yes | 17 | 30.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd660…e8d9 | No | 7 | 63.9¢ | $5 | — |
| M.elena6780xb5d8…af42 | No | 7 | 63.9¢ | $5 | — |
| josephHFT0x0eef…02c0 | Yes | 15 | 34.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x525e…c78d | Yes | 15 | 35.2¢ | $4 | — |
| NotManu0x0815…1dc5 | Yes | 14 | 28.8¢ | $4 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 14 | 28.8¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x599b…1155 | No | 6 | 63.9¢ | $4 | — |
| Paoul19920x3991…3d0f | No | 5 | 63.9¢ | $4 | — |
| ernestosparalesto0xc911…a7ff | No | 5 | 63.9¢ | $4 | — |
| prov1230xf143…4ef2 | No | 5 | 63.9¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xe3a0…5793 | No | 5 | 67.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x6ecb…0dc2 | Yes | 10 | 31.1¢ | $3 | — |
| natriumz0x59f6…020e | Yes | 9 | 54.5¢ | $3 | — |
| Slaktis0x6006…7ef8 | Yes | 9 | 34.9¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x86dd…1af2 | No | 3 | 67.0¢ | $2 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 3 | 65.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 3 | 65.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x2393…0bba | Yes | 6 | 38.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x4fbc…a244 | Yes | 6 | 35.0¢ | $2 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 3 | 73.3¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | No | 1 | 63.9¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 63.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 642 events · $32.1M in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.