Market · 4 of 7 outcomes
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| itsjustcheddar0x2a31…f2f0 | No | 50 | 99.6¢ | $50 | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 20,323 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 9,833 | 3.4¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 6,755 | 3.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.60 per $100 · 87,278 bets |
| 0x8b8b…2512 | Yes | 6,003 | 3.4¢ | $3 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 5,792 | 3.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 63,281+ bets · updating |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | Yes | 5,000 | 1.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 4,617 | 3.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,224 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 4,431 | 3.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,530 bets |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 3,606 | 3.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| merod0x8373…f0bc | Yes | 3,297 | 3.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$9.62 per $100 · 17,356 bets |
| alex200110x4868…a1c1 | Yes | 3,089 | 3.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$7.24 per $100 · 20,564 bets |
| VerilyWinningly0x6276…9db5 | Yes | 2,598 | 3.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$27.82 per $100 · 1,250 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 2,453 | 3.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.88 per $100 · 52,957+ bets · updating |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1,930 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| CoffeeLover0xc1b3…501c | Yes | 1,370 | 1.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.49 per $100 · 2,902 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 1,088 | 3.4¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| asmile0xe8a0…4e39 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| SmallBudda0xebcd…23b7 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xwhaleshark0x2179…bedb | Yes | 983 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$26.70 per $100 · 964 bets |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 810 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| tamalaile0x1e69…e777 | Yes | 800 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| mildwindow270x9f20…12c3 | Yes | 719 | 3.2¢ | $0 | — |
| SPLPB0xdf0e…c02b | Yes | 704 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.97 per $100 · 5,635 bets |
| Mantingh0x5b01…a8ca | Yes | 648 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | Yes | 648 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.43 per $100 · 38,405+ bets · updating |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 643 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 642 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| UbuntuTrading0xc3cd…816c | Yes | 556 | 2.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.56 per $100 · 9,359 bets |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 499 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.89 per $100 · 8,678 bets |
| barooo0010xdae3…cf78 | Yes | 440 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 423 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 416 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 400 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | 395 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.38 per $100 · 41,591+ bets · updating |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | Yes | 364 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 353 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| graynotebook190xcfff…673d | Yes | 352 | 3.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213210xe347…b438 | Yes | 338 | 3.4¢ | $0 | — |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | Yes | 320 | 3.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 2kparabellum0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | 300 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 270 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 269 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.52 per $100 · 10,908 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 252 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| nc3iceibvtvetvbt0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | 240 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$18.76 per $100 · 22,737 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 229 | 2.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 211 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.14 per $100 · 30,125+ bets · updating |
| wellll1210x4e85…73ee | Yes | 210 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | Yes | 168 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 420120xba8d…009d | Yes | 164 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 156 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| influenz.eth0xe8dd…ec86 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 29,730+ bets · updating |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 59 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 663 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 7 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.