Market · 2 of 7 outcomes
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 654 events · $32.2M in play
Exactly one of this event's 7 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 16 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804 | No | 12,000 | 78.1¢ | $8.58K | Proven+$4.57 per $100 · 1,559 bets |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | 24,999 | 25.8¢ | $7.12K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Do-Not-Redeem0xad89…f6e1 | Yes | 20,618 | 28.8¢ | $5.88K | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 3,205 bets |
| Chungvicular0x41ea…7a3d | Yes | 15,000 | 22.8¢ | $4.28K | Proven+$6.94 per $100 · 188 bets |
| ClauseAI0x8aae…918c | Yes | 15,000 | 29.8¢ | $4.27K | New0 settled bets |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | No | 5,830 | 71.1¢ | $4.17K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| JustADonk0x01e6…e7e0 | No | 5,555 | 72.0¢ | $3.97K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 1,962 bets |
| mrworldwide0x98d0…f14a | No | 4,800 | 71.5¢ | $3.43K | Proven+$8.95 per $100 · 1,841 bets |
| 0x91c3…409f | No | 4,062 | 73.8¢ | $2.9K | New0 settled bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 4,000 | 73.8¢ | $2.86K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e | No | 3,573 | 64.3¢ | $2.55K | New74 settled bets |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 3,300 | 72.0¢ | $2.36K | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 3,012 | 73.8¢ | $2.15K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 7,241 | 33.2¢ | $2.06K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | No | 2,127 | 73.8¢ | $1.52K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 6,532 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 2,100 | 76.5¢ | $1.5K | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,415 bets |
| dsoperative0x4be5…c1b3 | Yes | 5,000 | 32.3¢ | $1.42K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 451 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 1,972 | 72.0¢ | $1.41K | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,505 bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 4,554 | 23.9¢ | $1.3K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| kittycat670x808a…ef3f | No | 1,748 | 73.8¢ | $1.25K | Proven+$3.33 per $100 · 392 bets |
| scrapbook0x414b…0d3f | Yes | 4,200 | 28.8¢ | $1.2K | — |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 4,100 | 27.5¢ | $1.17K | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,304 bets |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | Yes | 3,820 | 46.9¢ | $1.09K | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 30,038+ bets · updating |
| HerlihyM920x1970…398d | No | 1,200 | 66.0¢ | $858 | Proven+$8.37 per $100 · 538 bets |
| madmartigan50xdd15…4a07 | Yes | 2,873 | 35.7¢ | $819 | Positive+$14.42 per $100 · 209 bets |
| carkiller5300xef2f…8b9c | Yes | 2,844 | 49.2¢ | $811 | New20 settled bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | No | 1,106 | 56.0¢ | $791 | Positive+$11.47 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| bosshog0x47ab…95df | No | 1,000 | 63.9¢ | $715 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,839 bets |
| pompey0xbbae…13f8 | Yes | 2,247 | 42.1¢ | $640 | — |
| Boey0x0539…70f9 | Yes | 2,100 | 41.7¢ | $599 | Positive+$20.65 per $100 · 454 bets |
| Lihazazs0x1ec6…7edb | No | 810 | 79.7¢ | $579 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 259 bets |
| chaoticgod0xffea…06c0 | No | 810 | 79.7¢ | $579 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 316 bets |
| Pondermint0x8633…a08d | No | 800 | 61.6¢ | $572 | Proven+$3.85 per $100 · 680 bets |
| 0x225b…422a | Yes | 2,000 | 29.8¢ | $570 | Proven+$9.78 per $100 · 302 bets |
| neuroplasticompany0x2458…f8e7 | Yes | 2,000 | 28.8¢ | $570 | New43 settled bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | Yes | 1,987 | 33.9¢ | $566 | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| KeithStarmer0x7ae8…5a42 | No | 750 | 78.1¢ | $536 | — |
| 0xf559…f462 | Yes | 1,830 | 42.9¢ | $522 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 742 bets |
| breakingcute0x7dff…1f35 | No | 704 | 74.3¢ | $503 | — |
| M88800x44da…e225 | No | 700 | 73.8¢ | $501 | Proven+$3.17 per $100 · 159 bets |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | No | 657 | 77.0¢ | $470 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 4,676 bets |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | Yes | 1,510 | 49.4¢ | $430 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | No | 590 | 73.9¢ | $422 | Losing−$3.82 per $100 · 22,723 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 536 | 68.4¢ | $383 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 1,330 | 26.0¢ | $379 | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 1,073 bets |
| ForTheWin19840x9cd5…9f12 | Yes | 1,319 | 37.7¢ | $376 | New12 settled bets |
| 0xcb14…bd17 | Yes | 1,292 | 48.5¢ | $368 | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 916 bets |
| johnnath12220x4b28…15df | No | 500 | 74.8¢ | $358 | — |
| Detbet0x8cb7…66e3 | No | 500 | 80.0¢ | $358 | New74 settled bets |
| BamseOgKylling0xd9e7…4cde | No | 500 | 73.0¢ | $358 | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 195 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 500 | 63.8¢ | $357 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 1,172 | 74.5¢ | $334 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| VorpalQuark0x4bb2…a656 | Yes | 1,030 | 29.1¢ | $294 | Positive+$2.90 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,000 | 22.0¢ | $285 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Pbankster0x56cb…9550 | Yes | 1,000 | 50.0¢ | $285 | — |
| MMH50x551d…4afe | Yes | 1,000 | 27.0¢ | $285 | New15 settled bets |
| EscapeVelocity0x832b…3ae1 | Yes | 1,000 | 28.0¢ | $285 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 1,574 bets |
| Polyticks0xfdfc…288c | Yes | 1,000 | 48.0¢ | $285 | Proven+$3.94 per $100 · 139 bets |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | 910 | 35.0¢ | $259 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 362 | 73.8¢ | $258 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | Yes | 900 | 27.5¢ | $256 | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| COCOA0xd975…c6d6 | Yes | 870 | 42.2¢ | $248 | — |
| 0xf30f…fa3e | Yes | 851 | 27.0¢ | $243 | — |
| GrokEnjoyer0x92e5…efee | No | 333 | 58.0¢ | $238 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 833 bets |
| 0xe4c1…f022 | Yes | 804 | 38.2¢ | $229 | — |
| Snoopyfan0x6291…cc47 | Yes | 800 | 28.6¢ | $228 | — |
| James-Talarico0x4262…abaa | No | 300 | 76.3¢ | $215 | — |
| Jellow20x6640…2202 | No | 299 | 63.0¢ | $214 | Proven+$3.91 per $100 · 575 bets |
| 10G0x4c86…1ed3 | Yes | 662 | 60.2¢ | $189 | — |
| Shevcov0x6b13…f125 | Yes | 644 | 26.8¢ | $183 | Losing−$7.08 per $100 · 449 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 600 | 38.0¢ | $171 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | No | 235 | 74.8¢ | $168 | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| Zhaowei0x1f13…3a2d | No | 230 | 65.5¢ | $164 | Losing−$1.21 per $100 · 657 bets |
| Oneko0xb6ac…6b83 | Yes | 575 | 28.0¢ | $164 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 810 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 565 | 21.4¢ | $161 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 193,297 bets |
| Kippekok0x55fc…132e | Yes | 541 | 37.9¢ | $154 | — |
| 0x7cbd…1288 | Yes | 538 | 29.8¢ | $153 | — |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No | 210 | 61.5¢ | $150 | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 200 | 60.6¢ | $143 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| Mst-br0xdda5…c82a | No | 200 | 71.0¢ | $143 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 200 | 60.3¢ | $143 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| 0x9dd9…08bd | Yes | 474 | 44.0¢ | $135 | Losing−$5.13 per $100 · 30,404+ bets · updating |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 162 | 72.0¢ | $116 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,457 bets |
| waterstar0x1401…1eac | Yes | 405 | 28.6¢ | $115 | New0 settled bets |
| wasabeej0x8b02…b95f | No | 160 | 73.5¢ | $114 | — |
| HorribleWork0x7804…7025 | Yes | 400 | 22.7¢ | $114 | Losing−$1.90 per $100 · 1,375 bets |
| paullyd0xbf60…febb | Yes | 357 | 28.8¢ | $102 | New0 settled bets |
| ChiangWan-an0x0d5e…5c24 | No | 137 | 76.5¢ | $98 | Break-even−$0.93 per $100 · 1,861 bets |
| Noofen0x194a…0f76 | Yes | 322 | 34.8¢ | $92 | New17 settled bets |
| 0x59d1…07ce | No | 126 | 74.8¢ | $90 | New75 settled bets |
| daniel12910xe54c…96b8 | Yes | 314 | 28.8¢ | $89 | — |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | No | 121 | 51.0¢ | $87 | — |
| ghoan0x897a…4194 | No | 117 | 67.3¢ | $84 | — |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | No | 111 | 73.5¢ | $79 | Positive+$5.87 per $100 · 217 bets |
| oliveiraielson0x50f4…04d4 | No | 100 | 77.0¢ | $72 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 6.85K shares each side · Show
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