Market · 2 of 6 outcomes
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 425 | 61.4¢ | $247 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| 0x4025…3644 | Yes | 351 | 34.7¢ | $147 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 202 | 87.5¢ | $117 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 252 | 13.5¢ | $106 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,521 bets |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | No | 70 | 90.0¢ | $41 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 52 | 73.6¢ | $30 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 21 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 95 events · $6.03M in play