Market · 2 of 6 outcomes
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 445 | 61.2¢ | $234 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| 0x4025…3644 | Yes | 351 | 34.7¢ | $167 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 252 | 13.5¢ | $120 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 202 | 87.5¢ | $106 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | No | 70 | 90.0¢ | $37 | — |
| Seeking-Alpha010x0a9c…d552 | Yes | 60 | 51.3¢ | $29 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 52 | 73.6¢ | $28 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xab7e…21de | Yes | 20 | 45.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Dani74560x9ded…7315 | Yes | 20 | 22.0¢ | $10 | — |
| tacor0x033b…5fd4 | Yes | 19 | 15.1¢ | $9 | Losing−$4.88 per $100 · 202 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 18 | 27.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | Yes | 10 | 6.0¢ | $5 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 9 | 38.8¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | 8 | 41.0¢ | $4 | — |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | No | 5 | 69.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | 5 | 41.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,509 bets |
| hitunfar0xb980…73b0 | No | 3 | 40.0¢ | $2 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 3 | 50.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Lordofebola0x1aac…1df6 | Yes | 1 | 16.5¢ | $1 | — |
| GamblingMangoes0x610a…454b | Yes | 1 | 45.0¢ | $0 | — |
| g6j3zpru8au4jci41u4m4hk40x0032…731a | Yes | 0 | 27.4¢ | $0 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 0 | 16.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
| |||||
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play