Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| andy290xa75c…895e | No | 2,944 | 66.7¢ | $2.63K | — |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 746 | 88.0¢ | $668 | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | No | 620 | 57.7¢ | $555 | Proven+$3.17 per $100 · 563 bets |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 338 | 76.0¢ | $303 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| ndb10xfea3…d227 | No | 258 | 53.0¢ | $231 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 2,396 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 250 | 87.0¢ | $224 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,967 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 236 | 81.8¢ | $211 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| Snoorrason0x805a…0635 | Yes | 1,703 | 23.8¢ | $179 | Positive+$2.75 per $100 · 6,247 bets |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | Yes | 1,565 | 21.6¢ | $164 | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 6,909 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 425 | 10.6¢ | $45 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,693+ bets · updating |
| JohnP920x9163…82ae | Yes | 414 | 22.5¢ | $43 | — |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | Yes | 401 | 16.0¢ | $42 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 42 | 58.0¢ | $38 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,057 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 39 | 95.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| jeanne660xf320…0472 | No | 35 | 70.0¢ | $31 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | No | 23 | 54.0¢ | $21 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 178 | 30.5¢ | $19 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| solder0x727e…8b9d | Yes | 175 | 28.3¢ | $18 | — |
| MMNiam0x949e…f5f2 | Yes | 145 | 25.9¢ | $15 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 16 | 88.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 105 | 17.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| garcianina0xdd41…9758 | No | 11 | 73.0¢ | $10 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 86 | 24.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 84 | 10.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,831 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 60 | 31.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Dsl0070070xef27…600f | No | 5 | 55.0¢ | $4 | — |
| orcampaired0xf404…291e | Yes | 29 | 17.0¢ | $3 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 25 | 12.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| criollo0x82fc…565c | Yes | 22 | 41.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Gohst0x2d4b…ca7a | Yes | 21 | 9.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$80.31 per $100 · 2,060 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | Yes | 20 | 19.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 20 | 52.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 53.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 20 | 24.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | Yes | 20 | 47.0¢ | $2 | — |
| mariusfnk0xca1f…c8dd | Yes | 20 | 65.5¢ | $2 | — |
| coolcool1237650x281b…1441 | No | 2 | 96.0¢ | $2 | — |
| cy6erpunker0x2783…8321 | No | 1 | 72.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 703 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 1 | 54.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 6 | 9.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 4 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 36.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| CopyMEyouwillwin0x8d58…4205 | Yes | 1 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Aggggaa120x498a…a9ee | Yes | 1 | 24.9¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 84.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| V4Mb7vN6JDACV10xceb4…f81a | Yes | 0 | 68.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf610…741c | Yes | 0 | 12.3¢ | $0 | — |
| corsur40x5c0a…a2c3 | No | 0 | 77.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| jmprocess0x46cb…9ee8 | Yes | 0 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Hochul3250x5284…27f5 | Yes | 0 | 43.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 692 events · $32.6M in play