Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| whig0x40cf…d21d | Yes | 4,852 | 85.7¢ | $4.06K | Proven+$11.46 per $100 · 1,102 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 4,336 | 83.8¢ | $3.63K | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 115 bets |
| prodset0x4d57…8620 | Yes | 2,217 | 83.9¢ | $1.85K | — |
| BondSolo0x9995…d0d3 | Yes | 1,400 | 85.0¢ | $1.17K | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 946 | 50.0¢ | $792 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 2,000 | 15.5¢ | $327 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 212 | 84.8¢ | $177 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 200 | 83.5¢ | $167 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,416 bets |
| aliaspopeye0x8713…196b | No | 900 | 16.8¢ | $147 | — |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 150 | 83.8¢ | $125 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| WhySoBroke0xecd7…c7e1 | Yes | 130 | 83.8¢ | $109 | — |
| 0x223b…85df | No | 600 | 17.0¢ | $98 | Proven+$12.29 per $100 · 158 bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | No | 523 | 16.4¢ | $86 | Proven+$6.72 per $100 · 6,681 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 74 | 84.0¢ | $62 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | Yes | 69 | 83.5¢ | $58 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| ssuhach0xd37b…a1c2 | Yes | 60 | 83.8¢ | $50 | — |
| TestingMyGangster0x3a51…fd7f | No | 305 | 16.8¢ | $50 | Losing−$3.91 per $100 · 136 bets |
| doctorno990x4e2d…4936 | Yes | 35 | 87.5¢ | $29 | — |
| tandjlover0xd542…f187 | Yes | 28 | 89.0¢ | $24 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | No | 120 | 16.8¢ | $20 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 20 | 83.2¢ | $16 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 98 | 16.4¢ | $16 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| dfupagain0x768f…c7bd | Yes | 17 | 83.1¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,358 bets |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | Yes | 11 | 87.5¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 14,879 bets |
| Zakaridoop20xef46…a547 | Yes | 10 | 87.0¢ | $9 | — |
| UbuntuTrading0xc3cd…816c | No | 50 | 16.6¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.63 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| 0x6904…dd04 | Yes | 8 | 86.5¢ | $7 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 5 | 85.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | No | 15 | 13.0¢ | $3 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 2 | 84.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$5.77 per $100 · 77,753+ bets · updating |
| mvmca16110x3744…d422 | Yes | 1 | 83.8¢ | $1 | — |
| alemania920x4fc2…05ee | Yes | 1 | 84.1¢ | $1 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 5 | 16.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| 0xc925…6d24 | No | 5 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x69f0…fb27 | No | 0 | 15.5¢ | $0 | — |
| fragilehands0x3a9a…0021 | No | 0 | 17.6¢ | $0 | — |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 0 | 83.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 1,172 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 718 events · $33.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.