Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | No | 125 | 95.9¢ | $122 | — |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 71 | 93.0¢ | $69 | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| onlinergca0x9e1d…712b | No | 50 | 92.0¢ | $49 | — |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 15 | 96.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 198 | 4.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| 0xf8c1…e071 | Yes | 25 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 18 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| romanew-1-new0x7438…b741 | Yes | 13 | 5.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | 5 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdceb…6e87 | Yes | 2 | 9.3¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.