Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coockroach10xd6f2…e013 | No | 3,000 | 89.0¢ | $2.7K | New66 settled bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 2,600 | 90.1¢ | $2.34K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,379 | 90.0¢ | $1.24K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 10,436 | 10.2¢ | $1.03K | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,166 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 823 | 90.0¢ | $741 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,258 bets |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | No | 691 | 90.0¢ | $623 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 6,000 | 10.4¢ | $594 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | No | 300 | 89.0¢ | $270 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| cashx10000xe72d…6424 | Yes | 1,672 | 10.3¢ | $166 | — |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | No | 55 | 90.8¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 50 | 91.0¢ | $45 | — |
| HE110W0R1D0xa86f…022c | No | 50 | 91.0¢ | $45 | — |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | No | 50 | 91.0¢ | $45 | — |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 211 | 8.3¢ | $21 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| GGLPL0xf9d4…f843 | No | 19 | 91.9¢ | $18 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 13 | 91.3¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x0174…95b0 | Yes | 100 | 10.4¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x4dc0…b5b8 | Yes | 100 | 10.4¢ | $10 | — |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | Yes | 100 | 9.3¢ | $10 | — |
| WhiteRiceHoldCo0xeb03…5d15 | Yes | 100 | 10.4¢ | $10 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 100 | 8.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 7 | 92.3¢ | $6 | — |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | Yes | 55 | 8.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| 0x69f0…fb27 | No | 6 | 90.3¢ | $5 | — |
| CryptoGerm0x807c…f1e3 | Yes | 50 | 10.4¢ | $5 | — |
| cormega0xa264…3b18 | Yes | 40 | 10.4¢ | $4 | — |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 4 | 92.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| Zakaridoop20xef46…a547 | No | 3 | 91.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x2650…44f7 | No | 3 | 92.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc925…6d24 | Yes | 21 | 9.0¢ | $2 | — |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | Yes | 20 | 10.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 533 bets |
| P0020x64f8…db66 | Yes | 20 | 10.4¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 2 | 91.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 1 | 92.2¢ | $1 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | Yes | 5 | 11.4¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 89.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| OffRoadTraveler0x0620…42ff | Yes | 1 | 10.9¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
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US 2026 midterms · 648 events · $32.2M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.