Market · 1 of 20 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 11:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFIE.0x5a45…f628 | Yes | 6,552 | 81.6¢ | $5.86K | — |
| lilith2750x7db0…8c18 | Yes | 1,957 | 65.3¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$5.07 per $100 · 376 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d |
| Yes |
| 725 |
| 24.9¢ |
| $649 |
| — |
| sange1110x87a9…4bdf | Yes | 713 | 57.9¢ | $638 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 708 | 9.0¢ | $634 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 7,296 bets |
| mcsg0x4d3d…5047 | Yes | 531 | 32.6¢ | $475 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 498 | 1.9¢ | $445 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| Houdray0xddd8…e6f7 | Yes | 474 | 73.5¢ | $424 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 300 | 33.6¢ | $269 | Positive+$1.03 per $100 · 8,527 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 200 | 84.0¢ | $179 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,109 bets |
| leleko2k0x0c55…9e26 | No | 1,033 | 70.5¢ | $109 | — |
| mangoking050x442c…3db8 | Yes | 100 | 35.1¢ | $89 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 10,157 bets |
| filaretou0x5a77…f859 | No | 848 | 13.5¢ | $89 | Positive+$8.55 per $100 · 730 bets |
| Fluo0x2b34…b202 | Yes | 64 | 0.0¢ | $57 | — |
| Soltrader-2500x0136…8e5d | Yes | 51 | 86.6¢ | $45 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 50 | 1.1¢ | $45 | — |
| browndust0x13de…fd91 | Yes | 50 | 84.0¢ | $45 | — |
| alexuhu0x8b01…b6ce | Yes | 43 | 23.9¢ | $39 | — |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | No | 259 | 10.3¢ | $27 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 31,283 bets |
| cicci0x2816…c473 | Yes | 30 | 22.7¢ | $27 | — |
| jkerkela0xde18…7ca8 | No | 235 | 17.2¢ | $25 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 24 | 40.2¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 579 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 23 | 73.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | No | 191 | 84.4¢ | $20 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | No | 180 | 15.4¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 21 | 71.3¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,995 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 20 | 2.2¢ | $18 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 102,238 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 156 | 16.7¢ | $16 | Losing−$3.12 per $100 · 1,469 bets |
| 0xa1c7…bdbb | No | 156 | 16.7¢ | $16 | New83 settled bets |
| poposd0xf512…0985 | No | 152 | 80.7¢ | $16 | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 17 | 40.2¢ | $15 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 745 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 17 | 35.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | No | 103 | 16.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$4.89 per $100 · 8,664 bets |
| damirjan0x736e…7101 | Yes | 12 | 17.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Trader1200x3de6…e560 | Yes | 12 | 34.6¢ | $11 | Losing−$4.33 per $100 · 27,232 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 100 | 16.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 100 | 41.7¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,781 bets |
| asd560xda65…e87e | No | 100 | 17.0¢ | $11 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 94 | 32.6¢ | $10 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 89 | 16.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 10 | 12.5¢ | $9 | — |
| Jesetrading0xce60…6705 | Yes | 10 | 50.2¢ | $9 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 9 | 50.2¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | Yes | 8 | 2.2¢ | $7 | Positive+$7.68 per $100 · 28,611+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 68 | 17.2¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 60 | 17.5¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| xTriple70xec6f…b34f | Yes | 7 | 75.9¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xf52b…5bf3 | Yes | 7 | 49.8¢ | $6 | — |
| Mazemeshane0x3100…c8e2 | Yes | 6 | 34.1¢ | $5 | — |
| roro300x2757…1c20 | Yes | 6 | 87.6¢ | $5 | — |
| retapo0x2b25…84e9 | No | 50 | 17.0¢ | $5 | — |
| radeksaturka0xa98c…5173 | No | 50 | 10.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | Yes | 5 | 74.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.63 per $100 · 2,089 bets |
| hamid19190x3cbe…2520 | Yes | 5 | 89.5¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 1,272 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 14.5¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,038 bets |
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 39 | 15.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x10be…aee1 | Yes | 4 | 88.2¢ | $4 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | No | 36 | 68.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 35 | 23.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$3.48 per $100 · 14,006 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 32 | 25.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 32 | 18.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| angelaandrews0xb779…e38d | No | 31 | 73.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 83afaf0x7b38…b187 | Yes | 3 | 32.0¢ | $3 | — |
| nzrod0xa5ce…2fa6 | No | 23 | 62.2¢ | $2 | — |
| romashkanadusha0xea81…4c3c | Yes | 3 | 41.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Glicha0x91ff…8f40 | No | 20 | 66.1¢ | $2 | — |
| harrisonamanda0x1577…0554 | No | 19 | 66.0¢ | $2 | — |
| iammlucky0x0b17…fecc | Yes | 2 | 48.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Holymama0xfeb6…6373 | No | 16 | 16.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x9245…8174 | No | 14 | 70.1¢ | $2 | — |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | No | 12 | 17.7¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 20.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 6,492 bets |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.28 per $100 · 3,608 bets |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 8,012 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 16.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.02 per $100 · 7,693 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 9,194 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 23.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 4,971 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 10 | 20.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 29,386 bets |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | No | 10 | 20.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 10,906 bets |
| kk819ddd0x4b58…dd1a | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.76 per $100 · 7,969 bets |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 9,458 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 12,017 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 15.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 7,441 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.65 per $100 · 3,143 bets |
| 67xxabcsdafasdf0x779d…267c | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 11,091 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| sdafsafd0x8513…6a53 | No | 10 | 19.0¢ | $1 | — |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| MankuJ0x6634…06c1 | Yes | 1 | 87.6¢ | $1 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 1 | 19.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.96 per $100 · 93,070 bets |
| 88dfhf0xeed8…679c | No | 4 | 60.2¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 0 | 82.2¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 0 | 25.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 84sfs0x4b4c…c67d | No | 0 | 74.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 7 shares each side · Show
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Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $896K in play
Exactly one of this event's 20 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.