Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: Other
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 655 events · $32.2M in play
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60460x0f22…b832 | No | 1,600 | 99.3¢ | $1.6K | New83 settled bets |
| eejay0xec67…86b9 | No | 1,100 | 99.3¢ | $1.1K | — |
| tsunamisurf0x639c…6781 | No | 700 | 99.3¢ | $699 | — |
| lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e | Yes | 420,100 | 9.2¢ | $630 | New74 settled bets |
| vicvic40x42b0…dfd5 | No | 420 | 99.4¢ | $419 | New88 settled bets |
| Vgsps110x4f42…8bbc | Yes | 203,536 | 0.2¢ | $305 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 1,943 bets |
| Galmon0x89ad…b45b | No | 301 | 99.8¢ | $300 | — |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 168,061 | 9.0¢ | $252 | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| allenhall0xa872…f2f7 | Yes | 160,390 | 0.3¢ | $241 | New4 settled bets |
| grass.ch0x9d9d…4f5f | No | 226 | 99.4¢ | $225 | — |
| Ayty0x23be…4390 | No | 201 | 99.5¢ | $201 | New60 settled bets |
| tapwater0x4518…25b0 | Yes | 101,312 | 0.5¢ | $152 | Proven+$6.46 per $100 · 226 bets |
| mastm0x0530…e1e8 | Yes | 100,285 | 0.2¢ | $150 | New2 settled bets |
| fkwpt0xd7e7…8f26 | Yes | 96,355 | 0.5¢ | $145 | — |
| 0x5d43…c593 | No | 136 | 99.8¢ | $136 | — |
| 0xe1ef…a98f | No | 122 | 99.8¢ | $121 | — |
| Toygamer0xf77d…684f | No | 122 | 99.5¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x7977…8e0f | No | 120 | 99.8¢ | $120 | — |
| 0x5d9a…29ac | No | 119 | 99.8¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x9230…0162 | No | 119 | 99.8¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x9639…2c92 | No | 119 | 99.8¢ | $119 | — |
| 0xdfe6…9391 | No | 116 | 99.8¢ | $116 | — |
| 0x6be8…cb70 | No | 106 | 99.8¢ | $106 | — |
| 0xcefd…ca37 | No | 105 | 99.7¢ | $105 | — |
| 0xf5ec…97cb | No | 105 | 99.7¢ | $105 | — |
| OJCISH0xffca…b58d | No | 102 | 99.5¢ | $101 | — |
| Shmartdern0x1d48…e891 | No | 101 | 99.5¢ | $100 | New54 settled bets |
| kokelin0x2334…cd00 | No | 100 | 99.7¢ | $100 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 2,021 bets |
| 0x488f…e223 | No | 84 | 99.7¢ | $84 | — |
| 0x62b0…3785 | No | 84 | 99.7¢ | $84 | — |
| jokis24320xffc5…d39e | No | 80 | 99.8¢ | $80 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | No | 80 | 97.6¢ | $80 | — |
| 0x90d1…f62a | Yes | 51,129 | 0.2¢ | $77 | Losing−$79.67 per $100 · 137 bets |
| jumejn20x674a…4b56 | No | 75 | 99.8¢ | $75 | — |
| jyedtst0x6c01…45ed | No | 61 | 99.8¢ | $61 | — |
| nulooo20xb606…c852 | No | 58 | 99.9¢ | $58 | — |
| fdhdhd0xc9b8…ff95 | No | 56 | 99.6¢ | $56 | — |
| xdtrsre0xcc8d…3c60 | No | 56 | 99.7¢ | $56 | — |
| xsavree0x16f2…4b89 | No | 56 | 99.7¢ | $55 | New17 settled bets |
| jakimoniso20x94dc…341b | No | 55 | 99.8¢ | $55 | — |
| kulirner0xc1fd…2b98 | No | 54 | 99.8¢ | $54 | — |
| gdbe6ee0xc4fa…c9ef | No | 54 | 99.9¢ | $54 | — |
| fdsgstf0xe8d3…1580 | No | 51 | 99.7¢ | $51 | — |
| gfsstre0x40f3…a56c | No | 51 | 99.8¢ | $51 | — |
| vvsbsv0xcff3…27e5 | No | 49 | 99.9¢ | $49 | — |
| jgdhgfd0xc427…e320 | No | 49 | 99.9¢ | $49 | — |
| vfwgt0xe1c0…79c4 | No | 49 | 99.7¢ | $49 | — |
| dsgerah0x3389…0935 | No | 48 | 99.6¢ | $48 | New15 settled bets |
| fhyduuy0xc45a…9833 | No | 48 | 99.7¢ | $48 | — |
| shdrdgt0x3ee9…da92 | No | 47 | 99.6¢ | $47 | New41 settled bets |
| 0x1feb…2ae4 | No | 47 | 99.8¢ | $47 | — |
| dshytjy0xbf30…edb8 | No | 47 | 99.8¢ | $47 | — |
| trwtvdvd0x97a7…ed5f | No | 46 | 99.8¢ | $46 | — |
| hyudtfu0xbe61…72ea | No | 46 | 99.8¢ | $46 | — |
| 0xb0de…df71 | No | 46 | 99.8¢ | $46 | — |
| Lulek930x748f…59d0 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.2¢ | $45 | — |
| sandwall0xaec9…9ce4 | No | 45 | 99.1¢ | $45 | — |
| ytgtsgr0xb1a5…c5ec | No | 45 | 99.8¢ | $45 | — |
| Mahmomar0x263f…b621 | Yes | 28,988 | 0.4¢ | $43 | New74 settled bets |
| xyz99990x49b3…6486 | Yes | 26,443 | 0.6¢ | $40 | — |
| businesscat0x035a…00ac | Yes | 19,500 | 0.5¢ | $29 | New7 settled bets |
| buyrightbake0x57cd…82ac | Yes | 19,332 | 0.7¢ | $29 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 18,127 | 14.4¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 193,297 bets |
| bigbusiness0x18cd…8013 | Yes | 16,990 | 0.6¢ | $25 | New13 settled bets |
| Blamates0x55c7…febf | Yes | 15,000 | 0.2¢ | $23 | — |
| stonghall0xaead…840d | Yes | 13,778 | 0.2¢ | $21 | — |
| Yelowyolo0x8a81…58b0 | Yes | 10,979 | 0.7¢ | $16 | Proven+$8.81 per $100 · 488 bets |
| skhvv0x765d…f447 | Yes | 10,522 | 1.1¢ | $16 | — |
| Nocturnelle0x3b23…6903 | Yes | 10,476 | 0.5¢ | $16 | Losing−$1.68 per $100 · 12,895 bets |
| style-points0x1ff2…4702 | Yes | 8,000 | 23.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$2.36 per $100 · 460 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 7,816 | 7.6¢ | $12 | Positive+$5.60 per $100 · 87,250 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 7,506 | 0.2¢ | $11 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| 0xd1a8…4018 | Yes | 7,102 | 0.6¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x9c12…b99e | Yes | 6,867 | 0.4¢ | $10 | — |
| Bravo4140xcd96…9ee4 | Yes | 6,785 | 0.8¢ | $10 | Proven+$10.64 per $100 · 153 bets |
| SamuelWatskins0xf79b…c37c | Yes | 6,205 | 0.4¢ | $9 | — |
| derlykk0x1bc8…a46b | Yes | 5,818 | 0.3¢ | $9 | New59 settled bets |
| je71xusa0xd3e3…3e08 | Yes | 5,667 | 0.3¢ | $9 | — |
| wing12340x02ae…bad5 | Yes | 5,583 | 0.9¢ | $8 | Losing−$12.89 per $100 · 792 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 5,305 | 20.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,457 bets |
| ReadyPlayer58500xfce1…1856 | Yes | 5,226 | 0.8¢ | $8 | — |
| TreepleA0x932f…2cd8 | Yes | 5,213 | 1.0¢ | $8 | New60 settled bets |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc0x477a…2d8e | Yes | 4,983 | 0.3¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.93 per $100 · 908 bets |
| shordanu-barosanu0x88e4…8f34 | Yes | 4,958 | 0.6¢ | $7 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 4,651 | 0.2¢ | $7 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| luckymofer0x1ee1…c056 | Yes | 4,333 | 0.3¢ | $7 | New2 settled bets |
| 0xf746…411c | Yes | 4,095 | 0.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x6903…9fa8 | Yes | 4,035 | 0.5¢ | $6 | — |
| illumination0xe1b5…8378 | Yes | 4,000 | 0.5¢ | $6 | New68 settled bets |
| 0x8bba…7f8f | Yes | 3,700 | 0.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x7af4…1cf0 | Yes | 3,333 | 0.3¢ | $5 | — |
| BSS287S0x4409…b964 | Yes | 3,333 | 0.3¢ | $5 | New63 settled bets |
| Rayse0xd061…d5e4 | Yes | 3,044 | 0.2¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xfbdf…3256 | Yes | 3,000 | 14.1¢ | $5 | — |
| Abcdefg040x88ef…c29f | Yes | 3,000 | 0.5¢ | $5 | — |
| destru0xd494…93b2 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.4¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x1125…bd94 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| tuananh010119860x489a…e15f | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| BeefDerky0x5787…5a48 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.6¢ | $4 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 58 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.