Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
| If you bet | You pay | Moves the price |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | 62.0¢ | +0.5 pts |
| $10,000 | 62.0¢ | +0.5 pts |
| $100,000 | 62.0¢ | +0.5 pts |
| $500,000 | 62.9¢ | +1.4 pts |
Right now you can buy Yes at and sell at 61¢.
About $902K can be bought and $1.28M sold within 2¢ of today's price, so most bets get in close to it.
Measured from 61.5¢, the middle of buy and sell. As of 21:25 UTC.
US 2026 midterms · 725 events · $33.3M in play
Democrats have a 63.5% chance of the Senate and 61.5% of sweeping both. So if Democrats take the Senate, the market expects them to take the House too, of the time.
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
488 traders bet this week. 6 bets were $10K or more, and $124K of that went on No, mostly on Oct 7.