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Topic · Geopolitics
6 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.2% of Polymarket
Events · markets
3 · 6
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
5 of the 10 biggest bettors
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? | December 31 | 5.5¢ | – | $0.40M |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:48 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| December 31 |
| 6.5¢ |
| down 1 point this week |
| $0.27M |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...? | December 31 | 13.5¢ | down 2 points this week | $40.5K |
Yes minus No · across the 5 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No on December 31 | $89.0K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No on December 31 | $88.5K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on December 31 | $74.7K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| aangelika0x2202…8787 | No on December 31 | $35.8K | New15 bets |
| 0x8b71…8044 | No on December 31 | $30.6K | Proven+$4.95 per $100 · 201 bets |
| ANGGGuess0xab01…2558 | No on December 31 | $21.5K | New10 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on October 31 | $18.9K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No on December 31 | $17.2K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | No on December 31 | $15.3K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| 0x095d…52cf | No on December 31 | $15.2K | Losing−$2.80 per $100 · 676 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.