Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 613 events · $32M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfadyor0xd1e6…0331 | Yes | 61,676 | 81.1¢ | $49.2K | — |
| uponlyyy0x3589…c80a | Yes | 30,489 | 82.1¢ | $24.3K | — |
| NotHarrisonHohman0xe72e…282d | Yes | 16,482 | 80.2¢ | $13.1K | New8 settled bets |
| maxwell30x20c4…d5a1 | Yes | 8,107 | 74.0¢ | $6.46K | — |
| Magician53420x4ae4…f84a | Yes | 7,346 | 76.2¢ | $5.86K | — |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 23,312 | 24.8¢ | $4.73K | Proven+$7.99 per $100 · 518 bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | Yes | 5,800 | 75.4¢ | $4.62K | Proven+$4.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 5,655 | 86.2¢ | $4.51K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 3,400 | 76.4¢ | $2.71K | Losing−$7.23 per $100 · 15,864 bets |
| HD450x600e…7aac | No | 10,421 | 24.7¢ | $2.12K | — |
| sollydisa0x1c76…c23e | No | 8,000 | 24.0¢ | $1.62K | Proven+$17.74 per $100 · 133 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 1,426 | 78.0¢ | $1.14K | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | No | 4,847 | 17.3¢ | $984 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | Yes | 1,155 | 78.3¢ | $920 | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| Cyclone0xf454…7ecc | Yes | 920 | 74.5¢ | $733 | — |
| MilitantCentrist0x7421…095c | Yes | 910 | 92.0¢ | $725 | — |
| nnimrodd0x09bb…f8b1 | No | 3,470 | 25.3¢ | $704 | Losing−$3.50 per $100 · 496 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 824 | 79.3¢ | $657 | Losing−$1.44 per $100 · 58,479+ bets · updating |
| 0xfbdf…3256 | Yes | 823 | 81.6¢ | $656 | — |
| WongKimArk0x7bb2…682c | No | 3,000 | 13.6¢ | $609 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 449 bets |
| Hashbrown0xa52b…9480 | Yes | 700 | 80.8¢ | $558 | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 1,115 bets |
| 0x85a9…bb66 | Yes | 664 | 76.0¢ | $529 | — |
| AnEggplant0xc97d…732b | No | 2,301 | 22.1¢ | $467 | — |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 2,300 | 27.0¢ | $467 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| frenchflair50x2ce9…5fc6 | Yes | 462 | 83.7¢ | $368 | New46 settled bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 1,700 | 19.4¢ | $345 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 1,499 | 26.6¢ | $304 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | No | 1,372 | 16.3¢ | $279 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 6,373 bets |
| Heskel20xcfee…ffcd | Yes | 329 | 73.6¢ | $262 | — |
| M88800x44da…e225 | Yes | 311 | 83.2¢ | $248 | Proven+$3.17 per $100 · 159 bets |
| rocky420010x5028…91c5 | No | 1,197 | 20.6¢ | $243 | — |
| Mr.Dink0x0ba1…cf36 | Yes | 302 | 83.3¢ | $241 | — |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | Yes | 300 | 83.8¢ | $239 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| lava-lava0x629b…995a | No | 1,149 | 25.2¢ | $233 | Proven+$7.83 per $100 · 1,847 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 283 | 79.4¢ | $225 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| JosephTrump0x97af…9bc6 | Yes | 272 | 85.6¢ | $217 | Positive+$1.25 per $100 · 470 bets |
| Jpegpeddler0xe50b…8bde | Yes | 250 | 90.7¢ | $200 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 983 | 24.8¢ | $200 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 248 | 80.1¢ | $198 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,791 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 947 | 19.5¢ | $192 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| rchok840x2942…c7fe | Yes | 238 | 76.7¢ | $190 | — |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | Yes | 215 | 79.9¢ | $171 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| pop0x6404…f250 | No | 800 | 27.7¢ | $162 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 351 bets |
| oliman20xc684…2228 | Yes | 202 | 78.6¢ | $161 | Proven+$2.29 per $100 · 8,096 bets |
| alpheclabs0xb4d2…ce99 | Yes | 200 | 83.0¢ | $159 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 29,999+ bets · updating |
| 0x7532…2a88 | Yes | 200 | 82.5¢ | $159 | — |
| MrNFT0xb8e6…9767 | No | 704 | 9.0¢ | $143 | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 2,095 bets |
| Slowroasted0xc30c…6509 | Yes | 177 | 85.9¢ | $141 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 5,633 bets |
| nicoco890x7ac8…77cd | No | 548 | 7.7¢ | $111 | Proven+$9.43 per $100 · 2,475 bets |
| carkiller5300xef2f…8b9c | Yes | 137 | 80.7¢ | $109 | New20 settled bets |
| Pbankster0x56cb…9550 | No | 533 | 19.4¢ | $108 | — |
| WatchTheTape0xdd28…374a | Yes | 119 | 84.0¢ | $94 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 2,234 bets |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | No | 455 | 22.0¢ | $92 | Losing−$1.24 per $100 · 16,208 bets |
| Optius0xa32d…a5f0 | Yes | 112 | 89.6¢ | $89 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 401 | 19.8¢ | $81 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,907 bets |
| GekkeHenkie230x5c3a…d4f4 | Yes | 100 | 74.9¢ | $80 | — |
| 67gambah670xbc32…8d7f | Yes | 100 | 85.7¢ | $80 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 98 | 80.6¢ | $78 | — |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | Yes | 94 | 73.1¢ | $75 | Losing−$3.82 per $100 · 22,723 bets |
| haimshor0xb26a…c542 | Yes | 93 | 75.8¢ | $74 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 82 | 86.5¢ | $66 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 79 | 87.9¢ | $63 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| Snoopyfan0x6291…cc47 | No | 300 | 20.6¢ | $61 | — |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 300 | 26.5¢ | $61 | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| COCOA0xd975…c6d6 | Yes | 74 | 77.4¢ | $59 | — |
| 7576770x7b98…5cfa | Yes | 74 | 91.0¢ | $59 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,528 bets |
| lonehighway0x0778…73d1 | Yes | 73 | 84.5¢ | $59 | — |
| James1230x7daa…5928 | Yes | 69 | 74.5¢ | $55 | — |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 263 | 17.3¢ | $53 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| DirkDiggler670xaab9…a08d | No | 251 | 21.8¢ | $51 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| choclopolis0xd449…450f | No | 250 | 15.2¢ | $51 | — |
| PK1230x6d65…3781 | No | 250 | 24.8¢ | $51 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 1,488 bets |
| frenchflair20xea2d…d8ba | Yes | 62 | 84.0¢ | $49 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 61 | 80.0¢ | $48 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| FakerT10x94d5…12d5 | Yes | 60 | 84.0¢ | $48 | — |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | No | 233 | 8.6¢ | $47 | Proven+$95.13 per $100 · 197 bets |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | Yes | 57 | 78.9¢ | $46 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,165 bets |
| cosmicsteaks0xf4f8…5bf1 | No | 224 | 17.6¢ | $45 | — |
| 0x69f0…fb27 | No | 221 | 24.5¢ | $45 | — |
| overfatting0xddea…1ec6 | No | 221 | 18.1¢ | $45 | New3 settled bets |
| TradeDeficitArchitect0x477f…19aa | No | 212 | 27.2¢ | $43 | Proven+$6.37 per $100 · 2,801 bets |
| QuteAnon0xb950…4dd4 | No | 200 | 22.2¢ | $41 | — |
| MacroStratFirm0xe090…727f | Yes | 50 | 72.8¢ | $40 | — |
| g1280x88d7…5762 | No | 171 | 19.5¢ | $35 | — |
| 0xe2b4…3c5a | No | 145 | 22.7¢ | $29 | — |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | No | 144 | 19.5¢ | $29 | Proven+$11.02 per $100 · 220 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 143 | 13.9¢ | $29 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| LBZero0xa9a1…c98a | No | 130 | 7.7¢ | $26 | Losing−$1.14 per $100 · 8,315 bets |
| StaticHarbour0x0a1c…d19f | No | 111 | 19.5¢ | $23 | — |
| 0xc9a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce466e6baf0c2930xb8a9…2948 | No | 100 | 19.6¢ | $20 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 94 | 10.1¢ | $19 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | No | 90 | 21.3¢ | $18 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 90 | 21.9¢ | $18 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 87 | 20.8¢ | $18 | Positive+$5.58 per $100 · 87,132 bets |
| rayfinklesghost0xcf6f…1163 | No | 70 | 14.7¢ | $14 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 68 | 28.9¢ | $14 | Losing−$6.51 per $100 · 57,562+ bets · updating |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 60 | 21.4¢ | $12 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| idl0x726c…6bfd | No | 53 | 21.2¢ | $11 | — |
| pxb96v3clwti0xedd8…b939 | No | 52 | 9.0¢ | $11 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 48 | 24.4¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.