Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 15,586 | 79.8¢ | $11.5K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | No | 7,289 | 22.7¢ | $1.93K | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,115 bets |
| Chungvicular0x41ea…7a3d | No | 5,500 | 20.8¢ | $1.46K | Proven+$6.94 per $100 · 188 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 884 | 77.7¢ | $650 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,721 bets |
| FrozenParasite0x1f9e…4f1a | Yes | 821 | 13.2¢ | $603 | Proven+$21.36 per $100 · 1,799 bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | Yes | 798 | 79.2¢ | $587 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| HotDogs0x5c60…67c1 | Yes | 613 | 80.5¢ | $451 | Proven+$2.73 per $100 · 613 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 509 | 74.0¢ | $374 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 22,975 bets |
| Mr.Dink0x0ba1…cf36 | Yes | 500 | 75.8¢ | $368 | Break-even−$0.79 per $100 · 133 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | No | 1,271 | 20.1¢ | $337 | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 967 bets |
| sollydisa0x1c76…c23e | No | 1,000 | 19.4¢ | $265 | Proven+$16.85 per $100 · 138 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 1,000 | 18.6¢ | $265 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 359 | 79.2¢ | $263 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,831 bets |
| djl6050x942b…e25e | Yes | 316 | 19.6¢ | $232 | — |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 310 | 22.0¢ | $228 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| nicoco890x7ac8…77cd | Yes | 270 | 65.6¢ | $198 | Proven+$9.43 per $100 · 2,475 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 248 | 11.0¢ | $182 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 237 | 78.7¢ | $174 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| test.saveliyb.test0x6358…cc23 | Yes | 161 | 75.6¢ | $118 | — |
| ABC123456543210x852e…ca77 | Yes | 127 | 78.6¢ | $93 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 12,178 bets |
| crossx0x976e…ecf3 | Yes | 125 | 18.6¢ | $92 | — |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 113 | 24.1¢ | $83 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| 0x2955…0738 | Yes | 64 | 79.5¢ | $47 | Losing−$9.33 per $100 · 265 bets |
| cooljit0xa917…4e8d | Yes | 48 | 78.7¢ | $35 | — |
| mwenya0xde04…fa37 | Yes | 47 | 50.4¢ | $35 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 45,035 bets |
| ocpna0x3106…d672 | No | 129 | 19.6¢ | $34 | Proven+$7.77 per $100 · 335 bets |
| FrankyFourFingers0xcdbf…1926 | No | 100 | 77.0¢ | $27 | — |
| tommychien0x52fa…8692 | No | 91 | 22.7¢ | $24 | New35 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 86 | 19.5¢ | $23 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| 0xecf5…f5db | Yes | 31 | 19.0¢ | $23 | — |
| LuigiDd0xd8fe…1975 | Yes | 30 | 28.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 79 | 74.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| khanoftruth0x742f…d673 | No | 70 | 50.3¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 18,004 bets |
| zavalakaren0xdbc4…c66f | Yes | 23 | 78.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Abchjac0x6423…8317 | Yes | 22 | 75.0¢ | $16 | — |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | Yes | 20 | 76.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| Klo0x4241…4da7 | Yes | 19 | 21.0¢ | $14 | Proven+$5.17 per $100 · 443 bets |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | No | 40 | 81.0¢ | $11 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| DuneMentat0x28ca…5d19 | No | 35 | 64.3¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.16 per $100 · 5,584 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 12 | 74.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,693+ bets · updating |
| 0x0317…b1e8 | Yes | 10 | 23.0¢ | $7 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 27 | 22.3¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| ngok9960xe1a9…339e | No | 25 | 26.8¢ | $7 | — |
| noise126trader0xafb1…0329 | No | 25 | 79.0¢ | $7 | — |
| chatwww0x7c1b…38fc | No | 25 | 22.7¢ | $7 | New41 settled bets |
| BIGMONEYGAMBLER0x08aa…f1f0 | Yes | 9 | 79.7¢ | $7 | — |
| apma-prdct0xe751…5a2a | No | 24 | 33.9¢ | $6 | — |
| Olezha0x40e5…fde2 | Yes | 8 | 82.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xaa06…1e0f | No | 22 | 23.7¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.25 per $100 · 1,046 bets |
| Anon2340xf3ac…f23d | Yes | 7 | 71.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 3,578 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 22.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | No | 20 | 30.0¢ | $5 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 20 | 35.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 19 | 20.6¢ | $5 | — |
| Sui0070xce62…cee0 | Yes | 7 | 74.8¢ | $5 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 16 | 41.8¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| JorgeBrasla0xa059…5a71 | Yes | 6 | 78.7¢ | $4 | — |
| bertross0x5fa5…b7a7 | No | 15 | 22.7¢ | $4 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 5 | 78.0¢ | $4 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 14 | 28.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xff12…cdc4 | No | 13 | 23.7¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.81 per $100 · 651 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 12 | 22.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Uncllelloyd0x5cc9…2c35 | Yes | 4 | 84.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$9.18 per $100 · 119 bets |
| Flaner0x585b…753f | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$4.08 per $100 · 927 bets |
| 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x0b07…757b | No | 9 | 23.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Ox81De0770551cA28Dc0Dc7fa148406D40BdfC20d40x81de…20d4 | No | 8 | 23.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$10.79 per $100 · 404 bets |
| BASSATS010xe4ca…1383 | Yes | 3 | 26.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xed16…9314 | Yes | 3 | 75.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xd2f2…2f05 | Yes | 2 | 78.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 16r0ob0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | 2 | 30.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 2 | 15.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0x2dc6…4726 | Yes | 2 | 79.7¢ | $1 | — |
| GGLPL0xf9d4…f843 | No | 5 | 20.6¢ | $1 | — |
| chepa-xyz0x0b71…5d00 | Yes | 1 | 77.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x864e…f9f6 | Yes | 1 | 82.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Mechel0xb0ef…c30a | Yes | 1 | 79.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Berrimoore0xdca6…4f03 | Yes | 1 | 77.7¢ | $1 | — |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | Yes | 1 | 79.7¢ | $1 | — |
| ox7a8Fe7b6934c1B5CdA555FBD5731a57E2683D9ee0x7a8f…d9ee | Yes | 1 | 75.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | No | 1 | 14.2¢ | $0 | — |
| generischerkaq0xa98e…371e | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $0 | — |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | No | 1 | 75.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 50,296 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1 | 22.7¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | No | 1 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| PX53000xd6ee…37a2 | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| banestow0x3080…337b | Yes | 0 | 80.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$20.74 per $100 · 495 bets |
| 0xa3c2…df3d | No | 0 | 74.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 55,694 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 0 | 59.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 52adsa0x5146…ac5e | No | 0 | 24.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 0 | 79.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.46 per $100 · 1,153 bets |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 74.0¢ | $0 | — |
| SitsToPee0x6d57…bfc5 | No | 0 | 19.3¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.23 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| 0x9b43…33ce | No | 0 | 60.0¢ | $0 | — |
| influenz.eth0xe8dd…ec86 | No | 0 | 69.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 45,814 bets |
| HendekaBet0x08ab…cbc4 | No | 0 | 40.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.54 per $100 · 413 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 692 events · $32.6M in play