Market · 5 of 11 outcomes
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 14:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 50,000 | 9.5¢ | $3.75K | Proven+$4.87 per $100 · 1,085 bets |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | Yes | 14,575 | 9.1¢ | $1.09K | Proven+$3.58 per $100 · 489 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | Yes | 7,530 | 1.0¢ | $565 | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,131 bets |
| resfeber0x814d…b842 | No | 603 | 87.2¢ | $558 | Losing−$2.35 per $100 · 2,438 bets |
| Semen-Demon0xf440…2747 | Yes | 6,971 | 15.1¢ | $523 | — |
| 0xcbdf…6a49 | Yes | 5,833 | 17.3¢ | $437 | New29 settled bets |
| BetterFish0xc412…592d | No | 300 | 85.0¢ | $278 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 3,559 | 8.9¢ | $267 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,423 bets |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 270 | 92.3¢ | $249 | Proven+$11.16 per $100 · 2,368 bets |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | No | 250 | 94.0¢ | $231 | Losing−$3.74 per $100 · 23,601 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 128 | 84.6¢ | $119 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,001 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 123 | 88.7¢ | $114 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,122 bets |
| 0x3c14…ffa5 | No | 109 | 83.0¢ | $100 | — |
| ts1410xcd76…77bd | No | 100 | 86.5¢ | $93 | — |
| wing12340x02ae…bad5 | Yes | 1,225 | 10.3¢ | $92 | Losing−$12.89 per $100 · 792 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $75 | Positive+$2.97 per $100 · 1,259 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 920 | 6.9¢ | $69 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 674 | 14.1¢ | $51 | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| u289260xe682…a082 | No | 54 | 92.3¢ | $50 | Positive+$1.00 per $100 · 430 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 651 | 6.9¢ | $49 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 6,756 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 50 | 84.0¢ | $46 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,049 bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 569 | 9.9¢ | $43 | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 520 | 0.0¢ | $39 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 102,261 bets |
| Boey0x0539…70f9 | Yes | 500 | 9.3¢ | $37 | Positive+$20.65 per $100 · 454 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 40 | 93.3¢ | $37 | New60 settled bets |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | No | 40 | 83.6¢ | $37 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 3,461 bets |
| nufonehudis670x6b44…be1e | Yes | 486 | 12.8¢ | $36 | — |
| ocpna0x3106…d672 | No | 30 | 89.0¢ | $28 | Proven+$7.76 per $100 · 336 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 368 | 8.2¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | Yes | 300 | 11.0¢ | $23 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| tradingjoe190x05cf…5fa9 | No | 22 | 92.3¢ | $20 | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 119 bets |
| rx780x5fde…cbbe | No | 20 | 83.0¢ | $19 | Proven+$5.04 per $100 · 1,810 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 242 | 7.0¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| longtermgains0xebdc…bf08 | Yes | 229 | 14.5¢ | $17 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 207 | 10.1¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 200 | 5.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$7.48 per $100 · 10,703 bets |
| 0x91c7…b576 | Yes | 200 | 12.7¢ | $15 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 584 bets |
| nryy0xafbc…18c6 | No | 16 | 90.1¢ | $15 | — |
| spaceskeleton0x79d2…61ce | Yes | 197 | 16.4¢ | $15 | Losing−$15.24 per $100 · 214 bets |
| jq1230x9ad6…cc62 | Yes | 148 | 13.2¢ | $11 | — |
| zooluck0x9785…8e37 | No | 12 | 85.0¢ | $11 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 11 | 83.3¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,558 bets |
| family-fund0xe487…384e | No | 11 | 93.3¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x05ae…5323 | No | 11 | 93.3¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xcf60…5dd4 | Yes | 127 | 18.7¢ | $10 | — |
| LR10xad28…1601 | Yes | 126 | 7.3¢ | $9 | Positive+$2.84 per $100 · 1,226 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 126 | 9.1¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,893 bets |
| trkbk20x09c0…305a | Yes | 117 | 15.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.14 per $100 · 124 bets |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | No | 9 | 88.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| yukonboi0x250e…e864 | Yes | 108 | 16.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 568 bets |
| mln190x1088…b813 | Yes | 100 | 13.0¢ | $8 | — |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 94 | 5.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x042f…e928 | Yes | 91 | 22.0¢ | $7 | — |
| MasonsConqueredRome0x357e…2a0c | Yes | 86 | 13.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.92 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| 0x8328…935f | No | 6 | 84.0¢ | $6 | — |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | 71 | 14.1¢ | $5 | Proven+$94.70 per $100 · 198 bets |
| VioletTrunks0x92b0…7582 | No | 5 | 93.3¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 5 | 88.8¢ | $5 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | No | 5 | 91.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| Sm10x215a…6bcd | Yes | 50 | 16.9¢ | $4 | — |
| aljarreau0x5a75…beb3 | Yes | 50 | 10.4¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 110 bets |
| daniel.sousa.me0x8936…d010 | Yes | 50 | 9.1¢ | $4 | — |
| AmericanVenom0x9768…07c0 | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x90a0…fedd | Yes | 45 | 22.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Aug780xa67f…e165 | Yes | 45 | 11.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x820b…4638 | Yes | 42 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 3 | 86.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| 1233322340x1f61…7ea7 | No | 3 | 83.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xf05f…ed10 | Yes | 36 | 11.4¢ | $3 | — |
| Gify880x6226…93a5 | Yes | 35 | 8.9¢ | $3 | — |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 32 | 5.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe5ab…8b8d | No | 2 | 82.6¢ | $2 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 30 | 7.4¢ | $2 | — |
| DANTOR1230xbeda…f2b4 | Yes | 29 | 17.6¢ | $2 | — |
| engri0xe184…08c5 | Yes | 29 | 10.9¢ | $2 | — |
| tmoneeey0xa974…ef79 | Yes | 28 | 8.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 753 bets |
| 0x6c10…df5c | Yes | 24 | 10.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| 0xc7ff…1326 | No | 2 | 82.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x3c88…3c17 | Yes | 22 | 13.6¢ | $2 | — |
| mvmca16110x3744…d422 | No | 1 | 91.0¢ | $1 | — |
| drum.foam.ginger0x1b12…05f4 | No | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Mountainmeadow0x3061…e82d | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| blossomsy820x3396…dc8e | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ribbon310x35ef…9deb | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| suit-walnut0x374f…64ac | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| busy-outdoor0x3f69…8cd5 | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| april-bottom0x4303…7fac | No | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| skate.bulk.turn0x6915…2354 | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| alertChief0x8e48…cbd8 | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| twicetg870xa5cf…e5e5 | No | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| drillDoor0xb50b…d661 | No | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Path-Require0xc8f9…7b39 | No | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Twist56000xe429…312d | No | 1 | 89.0¢ | $1 | — |
| grief2170xedeb…d412 | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xad99…dbab | No | 1 | 83.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | No | 1 | 91.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.68 per $100 · 28,611+ bets · updating |
| poshanka0x99d4…c2c6 | No | 1 | 86.1¢ | $1 | — |
| jjeeesusssus0x59fe…14fd | No | 1 | 86.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 20,907 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 1 | 88.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,825 bets |
| itsjustcheddar0x2a31…f2f0 | No | 0 | 84.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 20,331 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 759 events · $33.5M in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.